Booms and Busts: Aaron Rodgers pumps up the volume

If you live and die with every snap, you can see Aaron Rodgers and the Green Bay Packers are not playing well.

But in our world of fantasy make-believe, we just want the numbers at the end of the day. And that’s something the Packers passing game can still provide for us.

Green Bay’s 47-25 loss at Tennessee on Sunday was another data point in the narrative, an ugly-but-fantasy-fruitful showing from the Packers aerial attack. Green Bay fell behind 21-0 in the first quarter — as Marcus Mariota and friends were having a block party — but did some damage in the extended portions of garbage time. Rodgers finished the afternoon 31-for-51 passing, good for 371 yards and two scores. He added a third touchdown on the ground (and 27 yards there). Along the way, the Titans defense sacked him five times and picked him off twice.

The Packers might as well burn the backfield depth chart. James Starks carried seven times for 33 yards (he also caught a short touchdown pass). Ty Montgomery, the cause celebre from a week or two ago, was used sparingly (3-9 rushing, 2-11 receiving). Will you drop him as a running back or a wide receiver next week? Two starters from the offensive line were injured Sunday; often it’s easier to mask a struggling line in the passing game.

Although Green Bay wasn’t in this game from the jump, head coach Mike McCarthy had no problem exposing Rodgers, his franchise quarterback, to 51 pass attempts (and several bone-crushing hits). So long as Rodgers can stay in one piece, he’s a sure thing to accumulate fantasy goodness. Although efficiency is what we prefer from our fantasy quarterbacks, we’ll accept volume if it’s at this significant a level. Rodgers is on pace to throw 656 passes, easily a career high.

Jordy Nelson’s day was similar to Rodgers’ — the efficiency wasn’t great, but the gross production was juicy. Nelson turned 18 targets into a 12-126-1 line; that’s just 10.5 per grab, but it plays well in the scoring column. Davante Adams was more expositive, making 6-156-0 on nine chances. No one else on the roster went past 31 yards receiving; Randall Cobb was specifically disappointing (4-31-0, eight targets).

The schedule could get hairy — Washington, Philadelphia, Houston, and Minnesota are four of the remaining games. A friendly stop at Detroit is tucked away in Week 17, fantasy irrelevance. But so long as the Packers maintain the same profile — a missing-in-action rushing game, a leaky pass defense, a close-minded, pass-happy coach — we’re probably going to see the same volume show on a weekly basis.

So if Rodgers can stay on the field, he’ll probably drive you to the fantasy playoffs. And save a seat for Nelson and Adams, they’ll be riding shotgun.

— Doug Martin’s Lukewarm Return

Is the glass half-full or half-empty on Doug Martin? You get to decide. Martin was a full-time participant in Sunday’s 36-10 rout of Chicago, but he did little with his opportunities. Sixteen Martin carries netted a paltry 33 yards. He also had a 13-yard catch on two targets. I’ll make sure I’m fully caffeinated before I dig into the Tampa Bay tape on Monday.

Because Martin added a late one-yard touchdown plunge, his fantasy score crept into double digits. If you forced him in as a desperation play this week, he didn’t kill you. And at least you can take solace that he was healthy enough to handle the ball 17 times.

If you’re hanging your hat on Martin, you’re dreaming of the playoff schedule. Martin gets New Orleans in Week 14 and 16, provided he can stay healthy between now and then.

— Stefon Diggs, PPG Overlord

The Vikings are 0-2 since Pat Shurmur took over the offense, and they’re scored just 36 points in those games. There’s not much to feel good about, other than Stefon Diggs going ballistic in the passing game. (Yes, it’s a repeat from last week, but he’s been that ridiculous.)

Diggs caught a bunch of short passes in last week’s loss to Detroit, but the range expanded in Sunday’s 26-20 loss to Washington. Diggs finished with a silly 13-164-0 line on 15 targets, with a long of 36. Let’s recognize what Diggs has done under the new regime: 26 catches on 29 targets, good for 244 yards. Even if the touchdowns don’t pick up, Diggs is having a monstrous PPR run.

Arizona is a challenging draw next week, but nothing Diggs can’t overcome. Detroit could be a blast on Thanksgiving Day, provided the short turnaround doesn’t trip up the Vikings.

— Colin Kaepernick Effective Again

Kaepernick is a polarizing figure these days for all sorts of reasons, but we can agree on his fantasy potential — it’s on the upswing. Kaepernick was a pinball machine in last week’s loss to the Saints, and he backed up that performance with a quality showing at Arizona on Sunday: 17-for-30 passing, 170 yards, one touchdown, with 55 more yards and a score on the ground.

Kaepernick’s rushing progress is particularly worth monitoring, as the San Francisco backfield was ineffective at Arizona. Carlos Hyde did absolutely nothing in his return to action — 13 totes, 14 yards — and DuJuan Harris wasn’t much better (5-14-0). If Kaepernick can handle the extra pounding, you could make a strong case that he is the team’s most effective ball carrier.

The schedule doesn’t let up — New England and Miami are next. But Kaepernick has become a useful player in two quarterback or superflex leagues, and he’s also an interesting value pick in the DFS world.

— Brandon Marshall Missing In Action

I try to rewatch as many NFL games as I can every week, but I don’t know if I have the nerve for a Rams-Jets encore. Some mysteries are better left unsolved. The Rams grabbed the 9-6 win, the Jets had one snappy highlight (a hook-and-ladder gadget play that led to a Bilal Powell touchdown), and let’s call it a day.

Marshall has been a mess all year; part of it his doing, part of it tied to awful quarterback play. Ryan Fitzpatrick was awful in his stint, Geno Smith didn’t flash in a brief appearance, and the first Bryce Petty start (5.1 YPA, 163 yards, 70.6 rating) was underwhelming.

Marshall owners have to think about benching him for a while. He was limited to a 4-15-0 day on six targets against the Rams. And I’d have no problem with a Quincy Enunwa cut; he finished 1-7-0 on his six looks. Not surprisingly, Petty’s best moment came on a 52-yard throw to Robby Anderson — the JV connection that often shows up when non-starters are pressed into action.

If you can’t find 30 receivers more interesting than Marshall going forward, you’re not looking hard enough. It’s about the numbers, not the names. The Jets don’t play in Week 11, and no one is going to miss them.