5 toughest decisions facing the NCAA tournament selection committee
Sometime before 6 p.m. ET on Sunday, the NCAA tournament selection committee will email a completed bracket to CBS to unveil on the selection show. A look at some of the most difficult decisions that the committee will have to make between now and then:
1. How far will Duke rise after its ACC tournament title?
In an interview on CBS on Saturday afternoon, NCAA senior vice president of basketball Dan Gavitt hinted at which teams were still under consideration to become No. 1 seeds.
“I think there are as many as six different teams that will be considered,” Gavitt said. “The outcome of tonight’s Pac-12 championship game between the two regular-season co-champions could have a bearing and possibly the ACC title game as well.”
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What that suggests is that Duke’s ACC title game victory against Notre Dame a few hours later clinched no worse than a No. 2 seed for the Blue Devils and could even vault them to a No. 1. Four wins in four days in Brooklyn significantly bolstered their résumé, leaving them with eight RPI top 25 wins and 13 RPI top 50 wins, more than any other team in the country.
Strengthening Duke’s argument is that it’s finally at full strength after playing without Jayson Tatum, Harry Giles, Grayson Allen, Amile Jefferson and even coach Mike Krzyzewski for long stretches of the season. The Blue Devils also won two out of three games against hated rival North Carolina, which is significant since the Tar Heels are among the teams vying for one of the final No. 1 seeds.
That Duke is even in contention for a No. 1 seed is remarkable considering the Blue Devils fell well shy of sky-high preseason expectations. They suffered eight regular-season losses, more than any No. 1 seed in history, and finished fifth in the loaded ACC, three games behind the first-place Tar Heels.
Would the committee dismiss that large a gap in the ACC standings and vault Duke ahead of North Carolina? Or might the committee decide the Blue Devils’ bushel of quality wins give them a stronger case than any of the teams out West with gaudier records but fewer notable victories? It’s possible, but the guess here is Duke becomes the NCAA tournament’s most feared No. 2 seed instead.
2. If Duke is a No. 2, who will the four No. 1 seeds be?
The surest bet is Villanova (31-3), the favorite to be the No. 1 overall seed. The reigning national champs swept the Big East regular season and tournament titles, racking up an 11-2 record against the RPI top 50 including quality non-league victories over Virginia, Purdue and Notre Dame.
Kansas is also a near lock despite bowing out in the Big 12 quarterfinals. The Jayhawks (28-4) won one of the nation’s two toughest leagues by a whopping four games, beat Duke and Kentucky away from Allen Fieldhouse in non-league play and did not suffer any losses to opponents outside the top 100.
Unless the committee rewards Duke for its array of quality wins and head-to-head success against North Carolina, the Tar Heels (27-7) probably won’t fall to a No. 2. They won the ACC regular-season title by two games and racked up 11 top-50 victories, including notable ones against Louisville, Florida State, Duke, Virginia and Wisconsin.
The remaining No. 1 seed would likely go to one-loss Gonzaga (32-1) over Pac-12 champion Arizona (29-4). The Wildcats may play in the tougher conference, but the Zags tallied the same number of RPI top 50 wins, suffered three fewer losses and defeated Arizona head-to-head on a neutral floor in December, albeit without suspended star Allonzo Trier.
3. Will the Big Ten land a team on the top four seed lines?
When the selection committee offered an in-season glimpse at its top four seed lines last month, the Big Ten’s absence was one of the major storylines. The league’s exclusion bolstered the perception that while this year’s Big Ten had plenty of good teams, it didn’t have a great one.
In the final five weeks of the season, Purdue is the Big Ten team that has mounted the most serious challenge to that narrative. While fellow Big Ten title contenders Wisconsin and Maryland both faded badly down the stretch, the Boilermakers reeled off eight victories in their final nine games, won the league by two full games … and promptly fell to Michigan in the conference tournament quarterfinals.
Despite Friday’s loss, Purdue remains the only Big Ten team in serious contention for a top-four seed. The Boilermakers (25-7, 14-4) are likely to receive either a No. 4 or 5 seed thanks to a résumé featuring seven RPI top-50 wins, including a neutral-court victory over Notre Dame.
None of the Big Ten’s six other likely NCAA tournament teams figure to receive better than a No. 5 or 6 seed, but several are threats to outperform their seeding. The way Michigan has surged to the Big Ten title game with eight wins in its final 10 games, the Wolverines could be a trendy pick to reach the NCAA tournament’s second weekend. Defensive-minded Minnesota has also finished the season on a tear and you can never count out Michigan State or Wisconsin, both of whom have a long history of March success.
4. Is Syracuse in or out?
When Syracuse coach Jim Boeheim made a case for his team’s inclusion in the NCAA tournament on Wednesday afternoon, his argument essentially came down to eight words.
“The committee has always looked at good wins,” he said.
If that’s what this year’s committee weighs most heavily, Syracuse (18-14, 10-8) will almost certainly hear its name called Sunday. The Orange have more marquee wins than any other bubble team, having toppled Duke, Virginia, Florida State, Miami and Wake Forest during ACC play.
But Syracuse’s résumé has some major flaws, most notably a glaring lack of success away from home. The Orange are just 2-11 away from the Carrier Dome this season, the pair of victories a one-point win over middling Clemson and an overtime win over an N.C. State team that fired its coach just a couple weeks later.
The other blight on Syracuse’s résumé is its six losses to teams not expected to make the NCAA tournament, a list that includes a dreadful 33-point drubbing from St. John’s and a terrible loss at Boston College. Those outcomes help explain why Syracuse’s RPI is 85, way higher than many other bubble teams.
Are Syracuse’s good wins enough to edge it ahead of a 24-9 USC team that lost only three games all year to teams outside the AP top 10? Or ahead of a 27-6 Illinois State team that dominated every Valley opponent not named Wichita State? Boeheim feels the answer is yes. We’ll soon find out if the committee agrees.
5. Where should Wichita State be seeded?
A year ago, the committee struggled to decide whether Wichita State belonged in the field or not. This year, it’s the Shockers’ seeding that could pose problems for similar reasons.
Assessing Wichita State is again unusually difficult because the Shockers (30-4) could be one of the best teams in the country even if they don’t have many marquee wins as validation.
On one hand, Wichita State assembled an aggressive non-conference schedule featuring five games against name-brand opponents. On the other hand, the Shockers lost to Louisville, Michigan State and Oklahoma State and didn’t prove much by beating rebuilding Oklahoma and woeful LSU.
On one hand, Wichita State ripped through the Valley, winning 20 of 21 games against league opponents by an average of 21.5 points apiece. On the other hand, the Valley is down this year and features only one other top-100 team.
On one hand, history is on Wichita State’s side: The Shockers have won nine NCAA tournament games the past four seasons, including five as the lesser-seeded team. On the other hand, history shouldn’t matter: The selection committee is instructed to consider only this season’s results.
Even the most prominent computer metrics aren’t much help. The RPI, which ignores margin of victory, ranks the Shockers 29th. KenPom, which takes margin of victory into account, has the Shockers eighth.
The challenge for the selection committee is to find a way to seed Wichita State that’s fair to both the Shockers and their opponents. How would you like to be the No. 7 seed who oddsmakers anoint a five-point underdog against the Shockers in Round 1? Or the No. 2 seed who’s facing a top-10 KenPom opponent in Round 2?
Where should Wichita State be seeded? A No. 6 or 7 seed feels most fair. That’s as close as the committee can come to finding a spot on the bracket that doesn’t ignore the Shockers’ top-10 KenPom ranking or the blemishes on their résumé.
