Losing to Utah stings very badly, but the long-term outlook for USC just got better
Right after a stinging loss, a lot of USC football fans might not be in the mood to hear any positive spin or any “look on the bright side” comments. Yet, it seems warranted in this moment, for one very obvious reason: This was never the year in which USC was supposed to make the College Football Playoff.
Reach the Pac-12 Championship Game? Yes. That was always in play, and it still is.
Reach the Rose Bowl? Yes. Still in play.
Make a New Year’s Six bowl game? Yes. That’s very much in play, and USC is still likely to get one of those premium bowl invitations.
The playoff, though, was a bridge too far. Not with this defense. Not with the roster limitations. It was always about building a foundation for the future.
USC is doing that. Let’s explain why this program’s long-term outlook is better than it was heading into the Utah game:
THE SETUP
USC entered Week 7 without a single week off. That’s late in the year for a team to not have any weeks of rest. A lack of bodies and a lot of fatigue figured to make this week extremely difficult for the Trojans. This was always a game which set up poorly for them. This game always figured to be a loss, as soon as we saw the full 2022 schedule.
THE FOLLOW-UP
If you accept that this game always set up poorly for USC, it follows that the Trojans could have been buried. Utah could have swamped them. If USC had lost this game by 20, such a turn of events would have sent a very different message about the Trojans to the rest of the nation.
It did not happen.
ATTRITION
Courtland Ford was USC’s Day 1 starting left tackle. He has been largely out of the lineup the past several weeks. Shane Lee was ineffective after an injury layoff. He wore a small cast on his wrist for this Utah game. Romello Height is out for the season. Eric Gentry and Jordan Addison both got hurt in this game. USC’s depth was sorely tested.
The Trojans could have been blown out.
It didn’t happen. This team was right there with a chance to win in spite of the injuries.
PAC-12 REFS
USC should have gotten the ball back twice on Saturday, but brutal roughing-the-passer calls from the Pac-12 officiating crew handed the ball back to Utah.
SO MUCH ROTTEN LUCK, AND YET
Despite all the bad breaks which went against them, the Trojans were an eyelash away from victory, on the road, at night, in one of the Pac-12’s most intimidating stadiums for a visiting team, against the defending Pac-12 champions.
ELITE QB
Caleb Williams was magical in this game. He won’t play for USC in the Big Ten in 2024, but he will certainly inspire current high school quarterbacks to want to play for Lincoln Riley later this decade.
LINCOLN RILEY
You saw Riley carve up Utah in the red zone with horizontal stretch plays. Riley had answers for Utah’s defense all night long. Players see this and will want to be part of this.
DEFENSIVE DEPTH
Everyone knew USC’s defensive depth would be a problem this year. We saw the full extent of this problem against Utah. However, there’s a follow-up point to be made here:
FULL RECRUITING CYCLE
Give USC a full recruiting cycle (or two). The defensive depth problems which have existed will become much less of a factor. USC will get more quality players to reduce their frailty on defense. As soon as the roster gets built and developed, a 43-42 loss will become a 42-31 win.
THE PORTAL
USC is also going to load up in the transfer portal. Games such as this one against Utah will make the Trojans more attractive, not less. Had USC been smoked by 25 points, it would have been a different story.
BIG TEN WEST
USC’s future will be spent in the Big Ten West. Illinois and Purdue appear to be the two best teams in the division.
I think USC can handle that.
RELEVANCE
USC lost to Utah, but it played a relevant game against a quality opponent in prime time. This is where USC expects to be. The Trojans and Utes put on a show. USC has enhanced its brand. The Trojans don’t have a complete team, and yet they’re still one or two plays from being 7-0.
AHEAD OF SCHEDULE
Don’t let this loss change or eliminate the idea that USC is still ahead of schedule. Most people thought this was a three-loss team. USC is still highly unlikely to finish 9-3. The Trojans are very likely to win at least 10 games, if not 11.
10 WINS FOR SURE
USC would have to lose to one of these teams in order to not win 10 games in 2022:
Arizona
Cal
Colorado
A Notre Dame team which just lost to Stanford
That seems very unlikely.
Cal and Colorado are as soft as it gets. If USC survives the trip to Tucson, this will almost certainly be a 10-win season at minimum.
BOTTOM LINE
Lincoln Riley has developed his offense and changed the culture at USC so quickly and substantially that the Trojans are a leading contender for the Pac-12 title even with enormous roster limitations, especially on defense. Get recruits and more transfers into the program. Get more reinforcements. There’s simply little reason to doubt that this program will once again be a major national player for the long haul.
