Hawks season preview: Atlanta placed a big bet on Trae Young

GM Travis Schlenk’s decision to trade Luka Doncic to the Mavericks for Trae Young and a 2019 first-round pick will likely define his tenure in Atlanta, for better or worse.

Choosing Young over Doncic makes it clear that Schlenk envisions the Hawks playing like the Warriors, with hopes that Young can play the role of Steph curry, orchestrating the offense while bombarding opponents with 3-pointers. Young used his tremendous shooting and playmaking abilities to lead the NCAA in both points and assists while at Oklahoma. As seen by his game-winner against the Spurs in the preseason, Young has the bravado and confidence to thrive in the spotlight. Expecting him to develop into Curry 2.0 and being an MVP candidate is a stretch, but his jumper will bend defenses from Day 1.

Young’s transition to the NBA 3-point line won’t be a problem, but competing against NBA-caliber athletes might be a different story. Listed at 6’2” and 180 pounds, Young is going to be a liability on defense. He’s not an elite athlete and his wingspan (6’3”) doesn’t help matters either. He will need to become a solid team defender and hope that his offensive skills outweigh his defensive shortcomings.

During the preseason, Young (15.0 points, 5.4 assists) asserted himself as the focal point of the offense, attempting four more shots per game than any of his teammates. During his 22-point game against the Spurs, he flashed a floater in the paint that will be essential to keep defenses honest. While he did nail 37 percent of his 3s, Young shot just 39.5 percent from the field. Without the size to finish at the rim, Young will have to use his bag of tricks to finish in the paint. The players Young has modeled his game off the most, Curry and Steve Nash, have career shooting percentages of 64.6 percent and 65 percent from inside of 3 feet. For young to truly follow in their footsteps, he will need to figure out how score among the trees.

Young’s rookie season, and the entirety of his career for that matter, will be compared to Doncic. The reigning EuroLeague MVP seamlessly transitioned into Rick Carlisle’s Mavericks offense during the preseason, averaging 15.0 points, 5.0 rebounds and 3.4 assists while shooting 47.5 percent from the field and 43.5 percent from beyond the arc. At 6’7” and 218 pounds, Doncic has the size that Young lacks. Playing for a championship-caliber coach and alongside several veterans, Doncic will be in a perfect situation for his development and should make a run at Rookie of the Year. Young, meanwhile, finds himself playing for a rookie coach on a team filled with young players. Schlenk will catch grief for the trade throughout the year, but the deal can’t be properly evaluated until the protected first-round pick conveys in the coming years.

X-Factor

While Young will be the face of the team on a local and national basis, he won’t be the team’s best player as a rookie. Taurean Prince broke out following the All-Star break last season and is poised to take another leap in his third season. In his final 16 games last season, Prince averaged 20.9 points, 4.9 rebounds and 4.1 assists while shooting 45.9 percent from the field and 39.4 percent on 3-pointers. His late season run started with a 38-point game against the Bulls where he nailed 7 of 13 3-pointers, and it included another 38-point game against the Bucks.

At 6’8”, 220 pounds, Prince has ideal size for a modern NBA wing. Young’s game-winner against the Spurs garnered most of the headlines, but Prince might have had the more impressive game, scoring 16 points in the first quarter alone. As the league continues to move toward a pace and space approach, Prince’s developing offensive game and solid defense make him a building block piece for Atlanta moving forward.

Outlook

The Hawks are in the middle of their rebuild and will likely end up with a high lottery pick again next season barring an even greater jump from Prince or Young replicating his freshman season success.

While the season projects to be bleak for the Hawks, there is still reason for hope. In addition to Young and Prince, big man John Collins proved to be a steal with the No. 19 pick in the loaded 2017 draft, finishing with the second-most win shares in his rookie class. Collins averaged 10.5 points, 7.3 rebounds and 1.1 blocks as a rookie and showed flashes of a 3-point shot, hitting percent of his shots from deep. He continued his momentum with a strong showing on the summer league circuit and rounds out a solid young core for the Hawks to build around.

First-year head coach Lloyd Pierce’s background is in player development, which will be the focus of this season. In addition to their talented trio, the Hawks also have sharpshooting wings Kevin Huerter and Tyler Dorsey that will benefit from Pierce’s tutelage. Pierce follows in the footsteps of Brooklyn’s Kenny Atkinson as player development coaches who have earned a chance at a head-coaching job.

The Hawks are playing the long game in their rebuild as seen by the Young-Doncic trade and emphasizing internal player growth with their coaching hire. Depending on the growth of their three core players, it’s not hard to see the Hawks becoming an attractive destination for free agents next summer, when they project to have more than $50 million in cap room. Before then, however, this season will see the young kids taking their lumps.