Will BYU football be more like Utah or Rutgers when it jumps to the Power Five level?

The college football landscape changed significantly more than a decade ago, when over a four-year period, 12 schools either moved up to a Power Five conference or changed power conferences.

The past decade-plus of results for those 12 programs paints a foreboding image of what may lie ahead for the next wave of teams that will be switching leagues at the Power Five level.

That will include BYU, UCF, Cincinnati and Houston moving up to the P5 level this Saturday when they officially join the Big 12 Conference.

Next year, bluebloods will be changing conferences — USC and UCLA are heading from the Pac-12 to the Big Ten, while Texas and Oklahoma switch from the Big 12 to the SEC.

The question for BYU is, how quickly will it acclimate to a heightened level of competition?

Will the Cougars — who are moving from being an independent program to a long-awaited spot in a power conference — be more like in-state rival Utah, or like Rutgers?

Related

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• What to expect from Cougars when they tee off in the Big 12 this fall

Fielding a consistently competitive program in the Big 12 that will compete for a conference championship — and New Year’s Six bowl or College Football Playoff appearances — could prove to be a lesson in patience for BYU fans, as well as those from UCF, Houston and Cincinnati.

Two other schools that were once in the Mountain West with BYU, Utah and TCU, have had the most success of the dozen schools who moved to or changed Power Five leagues since 2011.

Utah has won two Pac-12 championships (and played in the Rose Bowl twice) since joining the conference and has made an appearance in the league’s title game four of the past five years.

The Utes have had a winning record in conference play eight of their 12 seasons in the Pac-12, easily the best among the 12 teams who’ve shuffled conferences at the Power Five level since 2011.

Utah also has won 10 or more games four times over the past 12 years, making it the clear winner among those P5 teams with relatively new homes.

While TCU has had more valleys than Utah at the P5 level, the Horned Frogs have done something the Utes haven’t: played for a national title.

TCU, which has finished four seasons with 11 or more wins since joining the Big 12 in 2012, went 12-0 during the regular season in 2022 and advanced to the national championship game after beating Michigan in the CFP semifinals.

Among the 12 Power Five teams who’ve changed conferences since 2011, Texas A&M and Pittsburgh have also made an appearance in a New Year’s Six bowl. The Aggies and Panthers, like Utah and TCU, have consistently been winners in the SEC and ACC, respectively.

Soon enough, BYU, UCF, Cincinnati and Houston will face that challenge of becoming a consistent contender in their new league.

BYU, unlike the other three, hasn’t played in a NY6 bowl, and comes in with challenges to be competitive in the near future — ESPN FPI projects the Cougars to finish with just five wins in 2023.

So, how long will it take — if ever — for the Cougars to begin competing for a conference championship and the NY6, as the CFP prepares to expand to 12 teams in 2024?

Here’s a look at how each of the 12 programs who’ve moved to or changed Power Five conferences since 2011 have fared in their new league, and what it can teach BYU fans.

Colorado Buffaloes

• Conference switch: Joined the Pac-12 Conference from the Big 12 Conference in 2011.

• Overall record in Pac-12 (12 years): 48-94 (avg. 4 wins per year).

• Conference record in Pac-12: 27-76 (avg. 2.2-6.3).

• Winning conference records in Pac-12: 2016 (8-1).

• Highest conference finish: Runners-up, 2016. Colorado lost to Washington in the Pac-12 championship game.

• Bowl record as a Pac-12 member: 0-2.

• New Year’s Six/College Football Playoff appearances: None.

• Of note: Colorado has just two winning seasons since joining the Pac-12, including 2016, when the Buffaloes went 10-4 and won the Pac-12 South Division. The Buffaloes finished that year ranked No. 17 in the final Associated Press poll. … Colorado has gone winless once in conference play (2014) and won just one Pac-12 game four other times. … The Buffaloes have won more than three Pac-12 games only once and finished sixth in the Pac-12 South Division six times.

Louisville Cardinals

• Conference switch: Joined the Atlantic Coast Conference from the American Athletic Conference in 2014.

• Overall record in ACC (9 years): 62-52 (avg. 6.8 wins per year).

• Conference record in ACC: 37-39 (avg. 4.1-4.3).

• Winning conference records in ACC: 2014 (5-3), 2015 (5-3), 2016 (7-1), 2019 (5-3).

• Highest conference finish: Tied for first in ACC’s Atlantic Division, 2016. Clemson won the division and ACC championship berth over Louisville by virtue of the Tigers’ win over the Cardinals during the regular season.

• Bowl record as an ACC member: 3-4.

• New Year’s Six/College Football Playoff appearances: None.

• Of note: Louisville has finished two seasons as ACC members ranked in the final Associated Press top 25 poll — No. 24 in 2014 and No. 21 in 2016. The Cardinals were ranked as high as No. 3 during the 2016 season. … The Cardinals have won four or more games in league play (a .500 record or better) seven of their nine seasons in the ACC. ... Louisville was winless in conference play in 2018, going 0-10.

Maryland Terrapins

• Conference switch: Joined the Big Ten Conference from the Atlantic Coast Conference in 2014.

• Overall record in Big Ten (9 years): 46-59 (avg. 5.1 wins per year).

• Conference record in Big Ten: 23-52 (avg. 2.5-5.7).

• Winning conference records in Big Ten: None.

• Highest conference finish: Third in East Division, 2014.

• Bowl record as a Big Ten member: 2-2.

• New Year’s Six/College Football Playoff appearances: None.

• Of note: The Terrapins’ top conference record came in 2014, when Maryland went 4-4. … The only other time the Terrapins have won four league games in a season came last year, when Maryland went 4-5. … The Terrapins have had a winning overall record four times since joining the Big Ten, in 2014 (7-6), 2016 (7-6), 2021 (7-6) and 2022 (8-5).

Missouri Tigers

• Conference switch: Joined the Southeastern Conference from the Big 12 Conference in 2012.

• Overall record in SEC (11 years): 75-63 (avg. 6.8 wins per year).

• Conference record in SEC: 41-49 (avg. 3.7-4.4).

• Winning conference records in SEC: 2013 (7-1), 2014 (7-1).

• Highest conference finish: Runners-up, in 2013 and 2014. The Tigers lost to Auburn in the SEC championship game in 2013 and to Alabama in the 2014 title game.

• Bowl record as an SEC member: 2-4.

• New Year’s Six/College Football Playoff appearances: None.

• Of note: Missouri finished its second season in the SEC ranked No. 5 in the final Associated Press poll after a Cotton Bowl win, and No. 14 the next season in 2014. … The Tigers haven’t had a winning season since 2018 — Missouri has four winning seasons in its 11 years in the SEC. … The Tigers have lost five or more conference games in seven of their 11 seasons in the SEC, including the past four years.

Nebraska Cornhuskers

• Conference switch: Joined the Big Ten Conference from the Big 12 Conference in 2011.

• Overall record in Big Ten (12 years): 75-72 (avg. 6.25 wins per year).

• Conference record in Big Ten: 47-55 (avg. 3.9-4.5).

• Winning conference records in Big Ten: 2011 (5-3), 2012 (7-1), 2013 (5-3), 2014 (5-3), 2016 (6-3).

• Highest conference finish: Runners-up, 2012. Nebraska lost to Wisconsin in the Big Ten championship game.

• Bowl record as a Big Ten member: 2-4.

• New Year’s Six/College Football Playoff appearances: None.

• Of note: Nebraska saw the majority of its success from the Big Ten move early on, finishing with a winning record in conference play five of its first six years in the league. The Huskers last played in a bowl game in 2016. … The Cornhuskers have finished two seasons in the Big Ten ranked in the final Associated Press top 25 rankings — No. 24 in 2011 and No. 25 in 2012. … Nebraska hasn’t finished higher than fifth in its own division of the Big Ten since 2016.

Pittsburgh Panthers

• Conference switch: Joined the Atlantic Coast Conference from the Big East Conference in 2013.

• Overall record in ACC (10 years): 75-54 (avg. 7.5 wins per year).

• Conference record in ACC: 48-34 (avg. 4.8-3.4).

• Winning conference records in ACC: 2015 (6-2), 2016 (5-3), 2018 (6-2), 2021 (7-1), 2022 (5-3).

• Highest conference finish: Champion, 2021. Pittsburgh beat Wake Forest in the ACC championship.

• Bowl record as an ACC member: 3-5.

• New Year’s Six/College Football Playoff appearances: 1, 2021 (lost in the Peach Bowl to Michigan State).

• Of note: In addition to winning the 2021 ACC championship, the Panthers also played in the ACC title game in 2019, losing to Clemson. … Pittsburgh’s 11 wins in the 2021 season were the most for the Panthers in a single season since winning 11 three straight years from 1979-1981. … Outside of its first season in the ACC, Pittsburgh has finished no worse than a tie for third in the ACC’s Coastal Division all but two seasons (not counting 2020, when divisions were eliminated during the COVID-19 season).

Rutgers Scarlet Knights

• Conference switch: Joined the Big Ten Conference from the American Athletic Conference in 2014.

• Overall record in Big Ten (9 years): 33-74 (avg. 3.67 wins per year).

• Conference record in Big Ten: 13-66 (avg. 1.4-7.3).

• Winning conference records in Big Ten: None.

• Highest conference finish: Fourth in Big Ten East Division, 2014.

• Bowl record as a Big Ten member: 1-1.

• New Year’s Six/College Football Playoff appearances: None.

• Of note: Rutgers has gone winless three times in conference play, in 2016, 2018 and 2019. … The Scarlet Knights have never won more than three games in league play in any one season in the Big Ten. … Rutgers has finished last in its Big East division four times.

Syracuse Orange

• Conference switch: Joined the Atlantic Coast Conference from the Big East Conference in 2013.

• Overall record in ACC (10 years): 50-72 (avg. 5 wins per year).

• Conference record in ACC: 26-56 (avg. 2.6-5.6).

• Winning conference records in ACC: 2018 (6-2).

• Highest conference finish: Second in ACC’s Atlantic Division, 2018.

• Bowl record as an ACC member: 2-1.

• New Year’s Six/College Football Playoff appearances: None.

• Of note: The Orange have failed to reach three or more conference wins in seven of their 10 seasons in the ACC. … Syracuse finished its most successful season in the ACC, 2018, ranked No. 15 in the final Associated Press poll. … The Orange have had a winning record overall only three times during their time in the ACC, including last season’s 7-6 mark. From 2014 to 2021, they had one winning season.

TCU Horned Frogs

• Conference switch: Joined the Big 12 Conference from the Mountain West Conference in 2012.

• Overall record in Big 12 (11 years): 87-53 (avg. 7.9 wins per year).

• Conference record in Big 12: 56-43 (avg. 5.1-3.9).

• Winning conference records in Big 12: 2014 (8-1), 2015 (7-2), 2017 (7-2), 2020 (5-4), 2022 (9-0).

• Highest conference finish: Co-champion in 2014.

• Bowl record as a Big 12 member: 5-3.

• New Year’s Six/College Football Playoff appearances: 2, 2014 (won the Peach Bowl over Mississippi), 2022 (won CFP semifinal over Michigan, lost CFP championship game to Georgia).

• Of note: TCU went undefeated during the regular season in 2022 before losing the Big 12 championship game, then advancing to the national championship game. … The Horned Frogs have finished the season ranked in the top 10 in the final Associated Press poll four times since joining the Big 12 — in 2014 (No. 3), in 2015 (No. 7), in 2017 (No. 9) and in 2022 (No. 2). … TCU has won three or fewer conference games only three times since joining the Big 12.

Texas A&M Aggies

• Conference switch: Joined the Southeastern Conference from the Big 12 Conference in 2012.

• Overall record in SEC (11 years): 90-48 (avg. 8.2 wins per year).

• Conference record in SEC: 48-41 (avg. 4.4-3.7).

• Winning conference records in SEC: 2012 (6-2), 2018 (5-3), 2020 (8-1).

• Highest conference finish: Second in SEC West Division, 2012 (tie) and 2020.

• Bowl record as an SEC member: 6-3.

• New Year’s Six/College Football Playoff appearances: 1, 2020 (won the Orange Bowl over North Carolina).

• Of note: Texas A&M has finished a season ranked in the top 5 in the final Associated Press poll twice since joining the SEC — No. 5 in 2012 (the Aggies won the Cotton Bowl that year) and No. 4 in 2020. They also finished the year No. 18 in 2013 and No. 16 in 2018. … Texas A&M has had only one losing record since joining the SEC, in 2022. … The Aggies have gone .500 or better in conference play nine of their 11 SEC seasons.

Utah Utes

• Conference switch: Joined the Pac-12 Conference from the Mountain West Conference in 2011.

• Overall record in Pac-12 (12 years): 96-54 (avg. 8 wins per year).

• Conference record in Pac-12: 60-44 (avg. 5-3.6).

• Winning conference records in Pac-12: 2014 (5-4), 2015 (6-3), 2016 (5-4), 2018 (6-3), 2019 (8-1), 2021 (8-1), 2022 (7-2).

• Highest conference finish: Champions, 2021 and 2022. Utah beat Oregon in the Pac-12 championship game in 2021 and USC in 2022.

• Bowl record as a Pac-12 member: 5-4.

• New Year’s Six/College Football Playoff appearances: 2, 2021 (lost in the Rose Bowl to Ohio State) and 2022 (lost in the Rose Bowl to Penn State).

• Of note: Utah has played in the Pac-12 championship four times in the past five years, losing its first two in 2018 and 2019 before winning the past two conference championships. … The Utes have won double-digit games in four seasons (2015, 10; 2019, 11; 2021, 10; 2022, 10) and has a winning record in conference play eight times in their 12 Pac-12 seasons. … Utah has finished six seasons as a Pac-12 member ranked in the final Associated Press top 25 — in 2014 (No. 21), 2015 (No. 17), 2016 (No. 23), 2019 (No. 16), 2021 (No. 12) and 2022 (No. 10).

West Virginia Mountaineers

• Conference switch: Joined the Big 12 Conference from the Big East Conference in 2012.

• Overall record in Big 12: 73-63 (avg. 6.6 wins per year).

• Conference record in Big 12 (11 years): 47-51 (avg. 4.2-4.6).

• Winning conference records in Big 12: 2014 (5-4), 2016 (7-2), 2017 (5-4), 2018 (6-3).

• Highest conference finish: Tied for second, 2016.

• Bowl record as a Big 12 member: 2-6.

• New Year’s Six/College Football Playoff appearances: None.

• Of note: West Virginia had winning seasons in six of its first seven seasons in the Big 12. … The Mountaineers finished the 2016 season ranked No. 18 in the final Associated Press poll and No. 20 in 2018. … It has been five years since West Virginia finished with a winning record, either overall or in conference play.