Betting guide to 2024 Preakness Stakes with expert predictions, analysis, past performances

It won't be easy for the 149th Preakness to match the 150th Kentucky Derby for drama, as Mystik Dan emerged victorious from a three-horse blanket finish, all separated by a nose.

But with eight horses expected to go postward Saturday at Pimlico Race Course in Baltimore in the second jewel of the Triple Crown, it's shaping up to be a very competitive race featuring the usual collection of fresh newcomers taking on a those trying to rebound two weeks a grueling 1 1/4-mile test at Churchill Downs, including Mystik Dan.

The big news during the lead up to the race this week - Bob Baffert's Muth, who was the morning-line favorite, was scratched.

Post time at Pimlico is set for around 6:50 p.m. ET Saturday, with the race will be broadcast on NBC beginning at 4:30 p.m. ET . There will be coverage of Preakness Day on CNBC and Peacock from 1:30-4:30 p.m.

More: Preakness 2024: Post positions, odds, analysis with Muth the 8/5 favorite over Mystik Dan

Here are the selections from our USA TODAY Network/Northeast Region staff and other experts, including top finishers at the NTRA/National Horseplayers Championship and Horseplayers World Series.

2024 Preakness Field

PP Horse (Jockey) morning line odds

1. Mugatu (Bravo) 20-1

2. Uncle Heavy (Irad Ortiz Jr.) 20-1

3. Catching Freedom (Prat) 7/2

4. Muth (Juan Hernandez) Scratched

5. Mystik Dan (Brian Hernandez Jr.) 8/5

6. Sieze the Grey (Torres) 12-1

7. Just Steel (Rosario) 12-1

8. Tuscan Gold (Gaffalione) 9/2

9. Imagination (Dettori) 3-1

Brisnet past performances via Horse Racing Nation

OUR PREAKNESS CHOICES

Ken Jordan, five times among top finishers at NTRA/National Horseplayers Championship, four Top 10s at Horseplayers World Series

7. Just Steel - One of two for D. Wayne Lukas Was a good second to projected and subsequently scratched favorite Muth in the Arkansas Derby. Was part of a strong pace in the Kentucky Derby, should stay in close attendance to expected pacesetter Imagination, and put that one away in stretch to give his trainer his seventh Preakness win.

5. Mystik Dan - Did everything right in the Derby, may not find the rail open when he starts his rally.

3. Catching Freedom - Progressing nicely for trainer Cox, beaten less than two lengths in Derby, one-run style is not Preakness-friendly.

2. Uncle Heavy - Marooned outside in Wood Memorial, should give a more representative performance in reakness, has to be used in exotic wagers

Sean Nolan, 17-time National Handicapping Championship qualifier with four top 20 finishes, including a second place

9. Imagination has improved markedly in the past 3 months and appears to be the controlling speed. Reportedly his last workout was fantastic. When they get good for Baffert, they stay good.

5. Mystik Dan inherits the favorite role with the scratch of Muth. Much talk about him benefitting from inside trips but his tractability puts him in those good positions. Must respect.

8. Tuscan Gold is fresh and should be close to the pace. Light on seasoning, this Medaglia d’Oro colt can move forward off his third place in the Louisiana Derby. Brown has been pointing him to this race.

6. Seize the Grey returns quickly following his win on the Derby undercard, which reflects Lukas’ confidence. Arrogate colt is bred to relish this distance.

Bob Jordan, Asbury Park Press sports editor

2. Uncle Heavy - Form muddied by Wood Memorial where this one had a bad post, outside trip and had to navigate through bedlam caused by another horse unseating its rider.

3. Catching Freedom - A Muth vs. Imagination speed duel would have elevated this Brad Cox runner so the Muth scratch doesn't aid this one.

9. Imagination - Trainer Bob Baffert has a deep bench and Imagination is actually his No. 3 prospect among 3 year olds behind the scratched Muth and the currently-sidelined Nysos. Jockey Frankie Dettori is making his Preakness debut.

Steve Edelson, USA TODAY NETWORK New Jersey racing writer

3. Catching Freedom – Trainer Brad Cox is a factor in big races, with a Kentucky Derby and Belmont win. Now he has a great chance to get his first Preakness with a closer who finished just behind the three-horse blanket finish in the Derby and will be running hard near the wire.

5. Mystik Dan – Backing up his terrific Derby run, in which he got a perfect ground-saving trip, will not be easy. But he’s the only contender who has a 100-plus Beyer Speed Figure on his resume, doing it twice, and will be a factor here.

2. Uncle Heavy – A good pick for exotics with Irad Ortiz Jr. in the saddle, taking over after the colt had a bad trip in the Wood Memorial.

9. Imagination - Will be forwardly placed as and could try to wire the field, with Muth having scratched.

Steven Falk, Asbury Park Press sportswriter

8. Tuscan Gold – This is a familiar script. Trainer Chad Brown brings a lightly-raced horse to the second jewel of the Triple Crown after not running him in the Kentucky Derby. He has done it at least three times since 2017 and had great success. He won with Cloud Computing in 2017 and Early Voting in 2022 and was second beaten a head with Blazing Sevens last year. Tuscan Gold has run just three times. He was third, beaten 1 ¾ lengths by Catching Freedom in the Louisiana Derby even though he was wide the whole way and close to a pace that fell apart late, except for him.

5. Mystik Dan - He got a perfect trip and an all-time great ride from Brian Hernandez Jr. in the Derby, but he also deserves credit because he was the close to a pace that fell apart. He is the only horse in the field with 100-plus Beyer Speed Figures, and he has two of them. If there is moisture in the track, he moves up even more.

7. Just Steel – He had a no chance trip in the Derby. He was part of a three-horse scramble for the lead for the first six furlongs while racing in between horses. Most who were close to that pace backed up big-time except for Mystik Dan. The pace should not be as taxing here.

9. Imagination – Bob Baffert's only entrant left in the race with the scratch of morning line favorite Muth appears to be the main speed. Any Baffert horse that gets to the front is dangerous.

Greg Giombarrese, Director of Communications, Jersey Shore BlueClaws

8. Tuscan Gold - This improving, lightly-raced horse ran a sneaky good race in the Louisiana Derby. He prompted a strong pace while wide and that pace fell apart, with Tuscan Gold outfinishing the other speed horses only to be run down by two late movers. It was only his third career start and he can win with another small forward move. He skipped the Derby to point for this race, a move that his trainer Chad Brown has used for wins in this race in 2017 and 2022 and a second place finish last year.

9. Imagination - He does look a touch slow on paper, coming in off of his second place finish in the Santa Anita Derby. But that was a strong performance where he was a part of a fast pace and was dead game in just succumbing late to a perfect-trip winner. One of the speeds he beat in there came back to win impressively last week as well and if he can run back to his San Felipe race, he will be a factor at a square price.

5. Mystik Dan - The Derby winner got one of the great rides in the race's history to win. But he still ran well as he was up close to a pace that basically incinerated late. He is certainly a threat to win right back.

7. Just Steel - He didn't factor in the Derby, but perhaps can do better here with a more favorable pace scenario. His Arkansas Derby was pretty good and his previous races came with legit excuses.

This article originally appeared on Asbury Park Press: Preakness betting guide: Expert picks, analysis, past performances