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Andy Reid thinks replacing onside kicks would give Chiefs an edge — and he's right

Jason Owens
Staff writer
·3 min read

An NFL rule proposal to eliminate onside kicks is reportedly gaining steam.

If it passes, it has the potential of making the rich even richer.

The NFL is reportedly considering a proposal that would replace the onside kick with a fourth-and-15 situation. Instead of kicking off, teams would have a chance to retain possession of the football if they convert from their own 25-yard line.

Another edge for NFL’s potent offenses

This would inherently provide an added edge to teams that already have one in the form of high-powered offenses led by elite quarterbacks.

Teams would reportedly be permitted to use the rule twice in a game, meaning teams with forward-thinking coaches willing to gamble on their elite quarterbacks could exploit the new edge multiple times per game.

Kansas City Chiefs, anyone?

Andy Reid’s already thinking about it.

Do opponents really want to vote in another edge for Patrick Mahomes? (AP Photo/Mark J. Terrill)
Do opponents really want to vote in another edge for Patrick Mahomes? (AP Photo/Mark J. Terrill)

Reid: ‘We’ve got a guy’

The Chiefs head coach told reporters on Friday that the change could impact the integrity of the game and that he doesn’t necessarily support it passing. But if it does, he knows it will give his team yet another advantage.

“On the other hand, if it does pass, we’ve got a guy who can do fourth-and-15s,” Reid said. “He’d give us the opportunity to do that.

“So I’ve got kind of mixed thoughts on it. Being an old guy, I’d probably stick with the integrity of the game as it sits right now — but I could also see where the other part could be exciting, too.”

He, of course, is Patrick Mahomes — the same Mahomes who immediately took notice of the rule proposal when it was reported on Thursday.

Numbers show big edge for Mahomes

The rule would even appear to give the Chiefs an edge over other teams with elite quarterbacks like Drew Brees, Aaron Rodgers and Tom Brady based on their performance over the last 10 years. Arrowhead Pride broke down the success of quarterbacks in third- and fourth-down plays of 18 yards or longer from 2009 to 2019.

Mahomes stands head and shoulders above all competition in that timespan in terms of expected points added on those plays, an advanced metric that assigns value to a play in terms of points rather than yards gained or lost.

This chart provided by Arrowhead Analytics demonstrates a similar advantage for Mahomes in third-and-15 situations.

These are statistics teams should probably consider when voting on this rule. Especially if they’ve got the Chiefs on their schedule or anticipate making the playoffs.

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