7 college football teams that will bank a big payday – and could pull off an epic upset
Guarantee games have been part of the college football landscape for a long time. For the most part, such contests are mutually beneficial. The host school fills out its non-conference schedule while the visiting team, usually from a less-prestigious league, cashes a big check that helps the overall bottom line of its athletic department.
But though the vast majority of these games result in comfortable and expected victories for the home team, often the visitors turn out to be anything but cupcakes. And sometimes, they even win. Just last year, UCLA dropped a home game against Fresno State, eventual ACC champion Pittsburgh was tripped up by Western Michigan and Washington’s ignominious season was presaged by an opening loss to Montana of the Football Championship Subdivision.
FCS upsets are less frequent, of course, but in most years there is at least one Group of Five school that pulls off a win on the road against a power conference squad. There are plenty of candidates this year, but for this exercise we’ll limit ourselves to games with guarantees of over a million dollars. In chronological order, here are the games in which the visiting school could earn a big win in addition to a seven-figure boon.
Cincinnati at Arkansas
Date: Sept. 3. Payment: $1.5 million.
This one wouldn’t be a huge shocker, as the Bearcats have already claimed a seat at the adult table with last year’s playoff appearance and future arrival in the Big 12. But Cincinnati has a lot of parts from the 2021 squad in need of replacement, so a victory in SEC territory would go a long way toward cementing the program’s long-term viability as a power player. But the game is just as important for the Razorbacks, who need all the quality victories they can get with the challenges of the SEC West still ahead.
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Appalachian State at Texas A&M
Date: Sept. 10. Payment: $1.5 million.
The Mountaineers became the ultimate giant killer in the 2007 season opener when, still an FCS member, it entered the Big House and took down a top-five Michigan team. The Mountaineers have continued their winning ways even since moving up to the Bowl Subdivision, recording at least nine victories each of the last five years while becoming immediate perennial contenders in the Sun Belt. Their last three games against Power Five schools were defeats of North Carolina and South Carolina in 2019 and a narrow loss to Miami (Fla.) on the road last year. The Aggies will be well aware of Appalachian State’s history, of course, but any school agreeing to host the Mountaineers is taking a risk regardless of its ranking.
Brigham Young at Oregon
Date: Sept. 17. Payment: $1.1 million.
The Week 3 lineup features guarantee games aplenty as conference schedules won’t yet be in full swing. This one has the potential to be another Top 25 matchup at kickoff time. BYU, of course, isn’t a typical underdog school, also is bound for the Big 12 has a national championship etched in its history. Much of their lineup returns after 10 wins last season. This contest continues an ambitious non-conference slate for the Ducks, who will have taken on Georgia just two weeks earlier.
SMU at Maryland
Date: Sept. 17. Payment: $1.2 million.
The Mustangs have a new coaching staff but should still bring a high-octane offense into College Park, led by quarterback Tanner Mordecai, who threw for 39 touchdowns last season. Greater challenges lie ahead for the Terrapins as they try to make headway in the rugged Big Ten East, but they’ll almost certainly be tested here as well, especially if they are looking past this American Athletic opponent.
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Texas-San Antonio at Texas
Date: Sept. 17. Payment: $1.52 million.
We’ll know a lot more about the Roadrunners in just a few days as they open at home against American Athletic Conference contender and 25th-ranked Houston. But UTSA’s recent run of success - including an 11-2 season last year - in Conference USA suggests it could make things tough for the Longhorns. Texas also will be coming off a date with Alabama, which could leave them with a less-than-full tank against an in-state team that surely will be playing with a chip on its shoulder.
Louisiana-Lafayette at Florida State
Date: Nov. 19. Payment: $1.4 million.
The Ragin’ Cajuns weren’t able to capitalize on last year’s guarantee-game opportunity at Texas, and the program is now under new management after Billy Napier left for the Florida job. But ULL will be catching the Seminoles at a good time on the eve of their annual rivalry showdown with Florida. FSU’s interest level could also be in doubt if the team struggles again through ACC play. We've seen the Seminoles loss to Group of Five opponents regularly at home in recent years. This would not be as big a surprise.
Western Kentucky at Auburn
Date: Nov. 19. Payment: $1.9 million.
It’s true that the Tigers came within a couple of points of Alabama last season. It is equally true that that same outfit had been in a four-quarter struggle with Georgia State earlier in the campaign. In short, you never know quite what you’ll get with Auburn, which incidentally will also have the date with the Crimson Tide on the horizon when WKU comes to town. The Hilltoppers probably won’t be piling up touchdown passes like they were last season with record-setting QB Bailey Zappe at the controls, but the wide-open system is still in place, and some early success on the Plains will have the home crowd nervous.
This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: College football schedule's guarantee games that are primed for upsets
