Why your pick can and can't win Saturday's Preakness Stakes at Pimlico

Jason Frakes, Louisville Courier Journal
·3 min read

There won’t be a Triple Crown on the line, but Saturday’s Preakness Stakes at Pimlico Race Course in Baltimore does offer some intrigue.

Kentucky Derby winner Rich Strike is skipping the Preakness, but three others who ran in the Derby will compete — runner-up Epicenter, fourth-place Simplification, and 14th-place Happy Jack.

Epicenter is the heavy 6-5 favorite in the morning line and will be tough to beat. Early Voting, who skipped the Derby, is the second choice at 7-2.

Kentucky Oaks winner Secret Oath is the third choice at 9-2 and will try to become the seventh filly in history to win the Preakness.

Here’s a look at why each horse can and can’t win the Preakness — many serious, a few tongue-in-cheek, and one destined to be right:

Preakness favorite Epicenter working out at Churchill Downs in April.
Preakness favorite Epicenter working out at Churchill Downs in April.

1. Simplification (6-1 odds)

  • Why he can win: Ran well to finish fourth in the Kentucky Derby, and he’ll encounter much less traffic in the Preakness. His versatility and stamina could pay off.

  • Why he can’t: When it comes to facing the best of his class, Simplification just seems to be a step behind.

2. Creative Minister (10-1)

  • Why he can win: He’s improved every time out and scored an impressive 2 ¾-length victory at Churchill Downs in an undercard race on Derby Day. Trainer Kenny McPeek must see something he likes.

  • Why he can’t: With only three career races and no graded-stakes experience, this is a huge step up.

3. Fenwick (50-1)

  • Why he can win: Because you believe in miracles?

  • Why he can’t: Needed five races to break his maiden and then finished last in the Blue Grass at Keeneland. Hard to imagine why he’s in this race.

4. Secret Oath (9-2)

  • Why she can win: With Rachel Alexandra (2009) and Swiss Skydiver (2020), fillies have enjoyed recent success in the Preakness. Secret Oath held her own against the boys in the Arkansas Derby, finishing third, and then rolled to victory in the Kentucky Oaks.

  • Why she can’t: She couldn’t beat Cyberknife or Barber Road in Arkansas. What makes you think she can beat Epicenter here?

5. Early Voting (7-2)

  • Why he can win: Trainer Chad Brown and owner Seth Klarman skipped the Kentucky Derby with Cloud Computing in 2017 and then won the Preakness. Runner-up to Mo Donegal in the Wood Memorial, Early Voting may be more talented than Cloud Computing.

  • Why he can’t: Maybe he lasts on the lead for 1 3/16 miles, but are you willing to gamble he does?

6. Happy Jack (30-1)

  • Why he can win: Umm, well, he did beat six other horses in the Kentucky Derby.

  • Why he can’t: Since his maiden victory in January at Santa Anita Park, he’s finished fifth, third, third, and 14th. No thank you.

7. Armagnac (12-1)

  • Why he can win: Likely will be near the lead early. If Early Voting falters, Armagnac could have first run at the lead turning for home.

  • Why he can’t: The former Bob Baffert horses (Taiba and Messier) transferred to Tim Yakteen for the Kentucky Derby didn’t perform well. Do you trust another one here?  

8. Epicenter (6-5)

  • Why he can win: Kentucky Derby runner-up is no doubt the best horse in this field. If he’s fit, he wins.

  • Why he can’t: If Rich Strike can catch him in the final furlong, maybe one of these other horses can as well.

9. Skippylongstocking (20-1)

  • Why he can win: With nine career races, he’s the most experienced horse in the field. His sire, Exaggerator, won the Preakness in 2016.

  • Why he can’t: Only two career victories came at Gulfstream Park. When facing the best in the Wood Memorial, he was no match for Mo Donegal or Early Voting.

Jason Frakes: 502-582-4046; jfrakes@courier-journal.com; Twitter: @KentuckyDerbyCJ.

This article originally appeared on Louisville Courier Journal: Preakness Stakes: Why your horse can and can't win