Here’s where Florida stands in the initial FPI rankings
The Florida Gators are down 0.6 points in the start-of-season FPI rankings from ESPN.
In May, UF received a 9.9 FPI rating and was just outside of the top 25. That rating is down to 9.3, and an 85.7% chance to reach six wins has dropped to 83.2%. According to the system, the Gators are projected to finish 6.9-5.1 and have a 2.4% chance of winning the SEC East. The odds are even worse for an SEC Championship at 0.3%. The playoffs or a national championship are firmly out of the question with a 0.0% projection.
Florida ranks No. 29 in the FPI, but these aren’t the same as the AP Top 25 or the USA TODAY Sports AFCA Coaches Poll. FPI is a metric used to determine a team’s true strength against an average opponent on a neutral field. Those aren’t the conditions under which most games are played, especially in the SEC.
Atop the rankings sit Alabama, Ohio State, Georgia, Clemson and Notre Dame. Miami (14.5, 9th), LSU (14.0, 10th), Auburn (13.6, 11th), Texas A&M (13.0, 12th), Ole Miss (12.4, 17th), Kentucky (12.0, 18th), Mississippi State (10.5, 24th), Tennessee (9.7, 25th) and Arkansas (9.7, 26th) are among the teams ranked ahead of Florida.
The Gators have a schedule ranked in the top 15 this year, so an upset or two could help bump Florida’s numbers significantly. UF’s Week 1 opponent, Utah, is ranked No. 13 on the list with a 12.9 rating.
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