West Virginia officials speculate Delta variant cases could be over 1,000

Aug. 3—CHARLESTON — Although the state has officially reported 100 cases of the COVID Delta variant as of Monday, state officials say the number is most likely far higher as active cases keep rising.

Bill Crouch, secretary of the state DHHR (Department of Health and Human Resources), said during Gov. Jim Justice's pandemic briefing Monday the number of Delta cases in the general population may be 1,000 or even 2,000.

The problem, he said, is the process of sequencing positive COVID tests to determine if it is the Delta variant is "not as simple as it sounds."

Crouch said not every positive test is sequenced, and it is primarily done in those cases where people have traveled out of state, out of country, a "breakthrough" case (someone who has already been vaccinated) or for variables that could make them more susceptible.

But even for those tests that are sequenced, the results can take up to two weeks to be returned, so by the time the determination is made it's possible the person who was positive for the Delta variant may have recovered and returned to work.

To gather and coordinate that information is a "labor-intensive process," he said, and those 100 cases means the state in reality may have 1,000 to 2,000 Delta cases.

The sequencing is done at WVU and "they are speeding up" the process, he added.

Crouch said the variant is in 29 counties now and the numbers at this point are updated only once a week.

"We are going to try to update those more quickly," he said, adding that of the 665 new COVID cases reported Monday, there is no way to know how many are the Delta variant.

Regardless of the numbers, Justice once again urged residents to get vaccinated, saying the number of active cases has jumped to 2,480, almost triple the number just a few weeks ago.

"We now have two red counties," he said of the County Alert System map, which in June saw 54 of the state's 55 counties green. As of Monday, only 18 counties were in the green.

The color codes represent COVID spread with green the lowest and red the highest.

"We are concerned," he said. "We should all in West Virginia have some level of concern about this Delta variant."

Not only that, retired Maj. Gen. James Hoyer, director of the state's Joint InterAgency Vaccine Task Force, said COVID hospitalizations in the state have increased to 178, up from 52 on July 4. Patients in ICU have jumped from 17 on July 4 to 67 on Monday.

Hoyer also said the value that measures the rate of spread of the virus stood at 1.67, well above the earlier accomplishment of falling below 1.

Dr. Clay Marsh, state COVID-19 Czar, said the Delta variant spreads at a rate almost three times of the original COVID virus.

"It spreads as quickly as chicken pox," he said, with tiny droplets that people send into the air from coughing or talking or even smoking saturated with the virus. "It is causing a lot of people to get sick."

Delta also is more likely to infect youth, he said, and the spread can happen quickly, and be more "explosive."

"When it takes hold here, we are likely to see a much faster timeframe of people getting sick with the Delta variant," he said, primarily in unvaccinated and younger people.

Marsh also said vaccines prevent the spread as well as save people from going into the hospital and dying.

"These vaccines are incredible, incredibly effective and incredibly safe," he said, adding that only a very small percentage of people who are fully vaccinated have a "breakthrough" positive case.

"About 99.9 percent of that (those who are fully vaccinated) do not get reinfected and do not get sick," he said.

However, studies are showing those relatively few breakthrough cases can pass the virus on to others, he added.

Justice said now is the time to get vaccinated because football games are coming soon and the West Virginia State Fair is only two weeks away.

"We're just weeks away from WVU and Marshall football games, fairs and festivals, the State Fair of West Virginia — people are going to be piled up on top of people and this Delta variant is here," he said. "How are you going to feel if you're walking through those crowds without being vaccinated?"

Justice said people will be there "with the Delta variant and it is floating around all over the place. I don't get it. How can you take that level of chance?"

School will start soon as well, he added, and that poses more risks for the unvaccinated, and parents should make sure their children (12 to 18) are vaccinated.

However, Justice said he sees no need at this time to bring back any mask mandates and would only do that if it is a recommendation of his medical experts.

"They have not recommended we do that," he said. "But everything is always on the table."

The CDC is now recommending that even those who are vaccinated should wear a mask in public indoor places.

But one encouraging development was the number of vaccinations over the weekend, with more than 7,500 doses administered around the state.

"That's great news," he said. "That's way, way up from where we were before."

For comparison, the previous weekend saw only 4,070 vaccine doses administered statewide.

"I congratulate those that are hustling to get their vaccine," he said.

Statewide, 1,064,497 residents have had at least one shot, which is 59.6 percent of the entire population and 68.3 percent of those eligible for the vaccine (12 and older).

— Contact Charles Boothe at cboothe@bdtonline.com