Week 5 NFL betting market report: Big adjustments after wild weekend
By Mark Gallant
Yahoo is partnering with The Action Network during the football season to bring you expert sports betting information and analysis.
Using our proprietary sports betting tools at The Action Network, let’s break down the Week 5 NFL betting market.
Which lines have moved the most?
Who is the public jumping all over?
Where are professional bettors seeing value?
We’ll answer it all below.
Key Numbers
Bucs-Saints (-3): Are the Bucs, who could be 3-1 had someone not intentionally moved their kicker farther back, for real? Are Teddy B’s Saints, who looked like garbage initially but have won two straight games against two good teams, also for real?
Odds as of Wednesday at 10 a.m. ET. Check out via PointsBet, where Action Network users get an exclusive 200% deposit match (deposit $50, bet with $150).
The oddsmakers seem to believe that with Brees out of the equation, these two teams are essentially just as good as one another if they were to play at a neutral location. Some early lines for this game a week ago had the Saints favored by five or six points, but the Bucs’ dominant offensive display in LA changed that.
After reopening at +4.5, big bets (53% of bets, 68% of money) have come in on Tampa to move the line all the way down to the key number of three.
Browns-49ers (-3.5): We saw a similar line adjustment in San Fran following Cleveland’s dismantling of the Ravens’ defense. The Niners were around -5 on the lookahead line, but found themselves as just a three-point favorite on Sunday night.
Those -3s didn’t stay available for long, though, as every book has moved to at least -3.5, with even a couple -4s sprinkled in. Just 46% of bettors are backing the undefeated 49ers as small home favorites, however.
Popular sides
Patriots (86%) at Redskins: I honestly don’t see why so many people want to bet on the Patriots as 15.5-point road favorites against the 0-4 Redskins, whose quarterbacks combined for …
15-28, 144 yards, 0 touchdowns, 4 interceptions
… against the Giants.
The Redskins looked like a respectable team during their first two losses, but have since lost the public’s faith after being outscored 55-18 by the Bears and G-Men.
Though New England had trouble vs. the Bills, nobody expects that to carry over to Washington. There’s been a wee bit of sharp action on Washington, but all of the love for the Pats has made any line movement back down towards +14 an uphill battle.
Bears-Raiders Under (78%): I’m honestly not sure whether Mitch Trubisky helps or hurts the Bears offense at this point, but whatever the case may be, nobody expects this to be a high-scoring affair.
Chicago’s defense looked 1985-esque in its 16-6 win over Minnesota and I think it’s safe to say that the Raiders offense doesn’t have nearly the same caliber of weapons that the Vikings do. With more than 75% of tickets and dollars on the under, this sucker has dropped from 41 to 40.5 since opening.
Oh yeah, by the way this game will be played in London. Unfortunately, it will be mixed in with the 1 p.m. ET games rather than the 9 a.m. hangover slate.
Ravens-Steelers Over (75%): What do you know? The Ravens’ defense is capable of letting up a lot of points and the Mason Rudolph-led Steelers’ offense is not half-bad. Time to hammer the over!
Following the Steelers’ Monday Night beatdown of Cincy, this total moved from 42.5 to 44.5. It’s since remained there despite the heavy public support of the over.
Biggest movers
Rams-Seahawks: We have a second consecutive good Thursday Night Football game on our hands … who woulda thunk it?! The Rams opened at -2, but their ugly loss to the Bucs has resulted in some sharp action on Seattle.
A few bet signals on the Seahawks flipped the line in their favor, but it didn’t stop there, as this line reached SEA -2.5 at one point. It’s since fallen back to -1.5/-2 depending on the book, but Seattle remains one of the week’s biggest movers.
Pats-Redskins total: This over/under has sunk like a sack of bricks. If the Redskins can score only three points against the Giants, how many could they possibly score against a defense that’s allowed one touchdown in like a year? Maybe a half point? Three-quarters of a point?
Since Sunday night, this total has gone from 45.5 to 42.5. We’ve tracked two bet signals on the under, while more than 90% of the early money is also fading the points.
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