Week 5 Fantasy Football Lames: Odell Beckham to burrow deeper into fantasy doghouse
Each week the Noise highlights 10 somewhat un-obvious names whom he believes will leave egg on his face. To qualify, each player must be started in at least 50 percent of Yahoo leagues. Speaking as an accountability advocate, I will post results, whether genius or moronic, the following week using the scoring system shown here (Thresholds – QB: 18 fpts, RB: 12 fpts, WR: 11 fpts, TE: 10 fpts). If you’re a member of TEAM HUEVOS, reveal your Week 5 Lames in the comments section below.
Prescott to fall short in back-to-back weeks
Dak Prescott, Dal, QB (64 percent started; Yahoo DFS: $33)
Matchup: vs. GB
Vegas Line/Total: Dal -3.5, 46.5
Sometimes the logical becomes illogical in fantasy football. Case in point, Dak’s inexplicable under-performance last week in New Orleans. The table was set for the QB to feast. Entering Sunday night, Marshon Lattimore and Eli Apple had conceded multiple chunk plays which caused the duo’s passer rating allowed to soar. The Saints, collectively, ranked top-three in most fantasy points allowed to the position. It was sensible for the signal-caller to sear just like Deshaun Watson, Russell Wilson and Jared Goff had before him. Of course, it didn’t break that way, as Prescott posted a meager 223 yards and a pick. Apparently, whatever voodoo spell Saints fans cast worked.
This week, the QB faces a much stiffer opponent. Green Bay has allowed only 6.2 pass yards per attempt, 207.8 pass yards per game, a 4:4 TD:INT split and the fourth-fewest fantasy points to the position. Jaire Alexander, who’s become one of the fiercest ball hawks in the league, has complemented Tramon Williams and Kevin King beautifully. In total, the trio has given up a 77.5 passer rating, 1.10 yards per snap and two touchdowns to their assignments.
Dak is a multifaceted threat, but expect the star to add another layer of tarnish.
Fearless Forecast: 234 passing yards, 2 passing touchdowns, 1 interception, 14 rushing yards, 17.7 fantasy points
MANDATORY MONTGOMERY against Oakland? Umm, not so fast
David Montgomery, Chi, RB (54% started; Yahoo DFS: $20)
Matchup: at Oak (London)
Vegas Line/Total: Chi -5, 40.5
Hyping young, dynamic running backs to a point where they’re A) Overpriced in drafts and B) Destined failures, is a specialty of a certain blathering fantasy analyst. The film work, data analysis, and favorable environment all pointed to a banner, fantasy Rookie of the Year-level campaign for Montgomery. It was a logical conclusion. Now, it looks unmistakably idiotic.
It’s been no cakewalk for the youngster. Though he’s seen his snap share steadily rise, topping out at 70% last Sunday against Minnesota, he’s struggled to find breathing room. Toss hate grenades at Matt Nagy all you want — the Cordarrelle Patterson and Tarik Cohen usage is puzzling — but it’s the Bears’ offensive line that deserves the blame. Currently No. 26 in run-blocking efficiency according to Pro Football Focus, they simply haven’t manufactured avenues. Monty, who’s forced a missed tackle on 18.1% of his touches (RB17 overall), has fallen victim to frequent overloaded boxes (22.3 stack%). And, no, he’s not over-dancing.
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Another lackluster performance and his overzealous investors will carve out their own Brexit, a distinct possibility this week in London. The Raiders, despite their flaws defending the pass, have stood their ground in the trenches. They have given up 4.3 yards per carry and 137 total yards per game to the position, but rank inside the top-third in fewest fantasy points allowed. The workload will be hefty again (19.7 touches/game), but can Monty overcome the constant horde?
Reverse psychology? Maybe.
Fearless Forecast: 18 carries, 59 rushing yards, 3 receptions, 20 receiving yards, 9.4 fantasy points
Wayne to inflict lil damage against Vikes
Wayne Gallman, NYG, RB (59% started; Yahoo DFS: $13)
Matchup: vs. Min
Vegas Line/Total: Min -5.5, 44
Two weeks ago fantasy gamers desperate for RB help broke out the sledgehammer and shattered piggy banks to acquire Gallman. After all, the rusher, promoted to the Giants’ pole position post-Saquon ankle twist, was in line for robust work. For one week, the exorbitant FAAB dollars spent was totally worth it. Last Sunday against Washington, the former Clemson Tiger tallied 26 touches, rolled up 118 total yards and found the end zone. His resulting 24.8 fantasy points in Yahoo leagues ranked No. 6 for the week, well ahead of starting lineup pillars Dalvin Cook, David Johnson, and Zeke Elliott.
Should you have the gall to start the rusher again?
Under the surface, Gallman has a JAG-like appearance. His Sony Michel-esque 1.64 yards after contact per attempt and 14.7 missed tackle percentage logged against the Redskins show his true colors. In reality, Gallman, though equipped with reliable hands, is a nonviolent plodder. New York’s offensive line, which ranks top-10 in run-blocking efficiency, deserves much credit for his Week 4 production.
This week, the rusher likely crashes back down to earth. His opponent, Minnesota, has allowed the ninth-fewest fantasy points, 3.8 yards per carry, 110.5 total yards per game, three TDs and the ninth-fewest fantasy points to RBs. LB Eric Hendricks has emerged as one of the game’s premier stuffers. His 16.3 run-stop percentage ranks No. 5 among all defenders with at least 25% of snaps played, according to Pro Football Focus. The Vikes also rank inside the top-half in fewest receptions yielded to RBs. Veer.
Fearless Forecast: 16 carries, 55 rushing yards, 5 receptions, 22 receiving yards, 0 touchdowns, 10.2 fantasy points
Frustrations to mount for OBJ backers in San Francisco
Odell Beckham, Cle, WR (97% started; Yahoo DFS: $31)
Matchup: at SF
Vegas Line/Total: SF -3.5, 46.5
We currently live in an unpredictable world where powerful leaders of the free world can’t distinguish a hyphen from an apostrophe, cucumbers, cheese and black olives on bread constitute a sandwich, and OBJ, who most believed would explode in his new Cleveland digs, currently stands at WR25 in total fantasy output. What’s next? Twitter will actually install an edit option. (Full disclosure, please make this happen. My fingers are fat.)
Beckham is a victim of the Browns’ general inconsistency and flimsy offensive line. His 9.3 targets per game and 77.0 yards per game are commendable, but with only one touchdown reception on the season, his fantasy worth has underwhelmed. His 11.4 average depth of target (WR52) also sounds an alarm. He’s enticed seven red-zone looks, which would suggest brighter days are ahead, however, his midseason schedule is chock full of fantasy boogeymen: Richard Sherman (62.7 passer rating allowed), Stephon Gilmore (59.8), Chris Harris (91.0) and Tre’Davious White (34.5). In fact, over his next five games, all defenses faced rank inside the top-half in fewest fantasy points allowed to WRs.
Emmanuel Mosely will have big spikes to fill replacing Akhello Witherspoon, but Mayfield’s accuracy struggles (QB34 in adjusted completion percentage) combined with the tough cross-country trip arrow to more mediocrity. Remember, the Niners have given up just 6.5 pass yards per attempt.
Fearless Forecast: 5 receptions, 66 receiving yards, 0 touchdowns, 9.1 fantasy points
Rams receiver not quite out of the Woods
Robert Woods, LAR, WR (79% started; Yahoo DFS: $17)
Matchup: at Sea
Vegas Line/Total: Sea -1.5, 49
Recency bias is one hell of a drug. Woods is an excellent example. After forgettable performances Weeks 1-3, the usually dependable receiver, WR51 entering Week 4, swashbuckled his way through a host of Buccaneers. In an unexpectedly high-scoring affair, he was targeted an obscene 15 times and caught 14 balls for 163 yards, a total which nearly eclipsed his previous three efforts combined (143 yards). Woods’ breakout was almost as wacky as Wisconsin moviegoers listing “Kraft Cheese Slices” as their favorite theater treat. Cardiologists do remain busy in the Badger State ...
This week, the wideout regresses back to the mean. Seattle, torched Week 1 by local product John Ross, has turned a corner defensively. Over the past three weeks, only the New England Patriots have surrendered fewer fantasy points to wide receivers. As a unit, they’ve given up 7.1 pass yards per attempt. CB Shaq Griffin, who will lock horns with Woods, has surrendered a lowly 0.33 yards per snap to his assignments. Toss in Jared Goff’s recent trials and tribulations away from LA, and a subpar Thursday comes into focus.
Fearless Forecast: 5 receptions, 62 receiving yards, 0 touchdowns, 8.7 fantasy points
BONUS LAMES (Over 50% started)
RB: Josh Jacobs, Oak (Chi -5; $17) — Black holes may exist in the universe and in Oakland, but a gravity-sucking vortex is sure to open inside Tottenham Hotspur Stadium. Yes, its name couldn’t be more British. The Bears are a team hell-bent on RB destruction. They’ve allowed 3.1 yards per carry, 117.8 total yards per game, one touchdown and the fifth-fewest fantasy points to the position. The rookie has transitioned almost flawlessly to the league, racking up 3.97 yards after contact per attempt while forcing a missed tackle on 33.8% of his touches. However, Chicago, with or without Roquan Smith, is sure to gobble him up. (FF: 14-41-2-18-0, 6.9 fpts)
RB: Devonta Freeman, Atl (Hou -5; $19) — Many have already cast aside the veteran for younger, hotter running backs not named Montgomery (This is my existence). Though Freeman has shown glimpses of yesteryear in his last two games — he crossed 90 combined yards in both — the end zone has remained elusive. He’s charged into the line energetically, but his 7.0 missed tackle rate leaves much to be desired. Another humdrum effort awaits in Houston this week. Zach Cunningham and D.J. Reader spearhead a unit that’s allowed two RB touchdowns in four games. The Texans have given 4.4 yards per carry, which could mean another FLEX worthy yardage output for Freeman, but marquee numbers will have to wait until Week 6 at Arizona. (FF: 11-39-4-34-0, 9.3 fpts)
WR: Sammy Watkins, WR (KC -11; $24) — “Fade a player involved in a game with a 57 total?! Evans, do you vape, bro?!” Yes, it may seem preposterous, but Watkins is far from the strongest Week 5 play. Though targeted 27 times over the past three weeks, he’s managed just 4.7 receptions and 55.7 yards per game. If not for his three-TD masterpiece Week 1 at Jacksonville, the receiver would have both cheeks firmly planted on many team benches. His 2.68 yards per route is attractive (WR14), but his WR63 standing in catchable target rate shows he and Patrick Mahomes are not entirely on the same page. His assignment, Indy CB Kenny Moore (0.91 yards per snap allowed), could only create more misconnections. (FF: 4-67-0, 8.7 fpts)
TE: Will Dissly, Sea (Sea -1.5; $16) — The burly grizzly from Montana has roared while developing into a Russell Wilson-red-zone-favorite. Targeted six times inside the 20, he’s hauled in four touchdowns in four games. The steady stream of scores explains why he ranks No. 1 in fantasy points per target. His commanding frame and trustworthy hands have his wavier wire pluckers fawning, but it’s unlikely he can sustain this level of scoring consistency. The Rams have yielded two TE touchdowns this year, but have done an excellent job containing the position. Greg Olsen, Jared Cook and O.J. Howard each failed to surpass 40 yards against them. (FF: 4-39-0, 5.9 fpts)
DST: Los Angeles Rams (Sea -1.5; $17) — Thumped by Jamies Winston, of all people, last week at home, the Rams are sputtering. With a short week to prepare and a road trip to Seattle on tap, it’s doubtful DC Wade Phillips has enough duct tape on hand to keep his unit together. Wilson has absorbed 12 sacks this year, but ranks QB21 in under-pressure percentage (32.5). Given his evasiveness and the ‘Hawks’ efficient offensive execution (25.8 points per game), it doesn’t seem likely LA reverses course on Thursday Night Football. (FF: 26 PA, 374 YDSA, 3 SCK, 1 TO, 5.0 fpts)
#TEAMHUEVOS PICKS OF THE WEEK
Each week one fortunate guest prognosticator will have a chance to silence the Noise. Following the rules stated above, participants are asked to submit their “Lames” (1 QB, 2 RBs, 2 WRs, 1 TE, 1 D/ST) by midnight PT Tuesdays via Twitter@YahooNoise. How large are your stones?
Reader record: 12-15
Brad’s record: 23-17 (WK4: 5-5; W - Tom Brady, Adam Thielen, Phillip Lindsay, Calvin Ridley, O.J. Howard, ; L - Nick Chubb (You’re welcome), Todd Gurley, Mike Evans, Aaron Jones, Dallas D/ST)
Want to bull rush Brad? Follow him on Twitter @YahooNoise. Also check out his TV show, “The Fantasy Football Hour,” now available in 91 million households on various regional sports networks, along with his work on the “Yahoo Sports Fantasy Podcast” and his award-nominated podcast, “The Fantasy Record.”
