Virginia health authorities warn pandemic may break caseload records this winter
Concerned about the potential for a worse winter than the last, Virginia public health officials are making an urgent plea to the uninitiated to roll up their sleeves for a coronavirus vaccine this week.
A first shot now of either Pfizer or Moderna’s vaccines could afford them enough time to get a second dose and be fully inoculated before Thanksgiving.
About 5.1 million residents became fully vaccinated against the coronavirus last week, representing 60% of Virginia’s population. But epidemiologists say that leaves another 2.8 million who haven’t received any doses — enough to give the virus carte blanche to surge again.
Though the caseload driven by the delta variant remains high, the past two weeks have shown signs the surge may be slowing down: A little less than 10% of standard nasal swab tests came back positive last week, according to Virginia Department of Health data, and close to 3,200 new cases are being diagnosed each day, down from about 3,600.
The surge may be peaking, but infectious disease modelers at the University of Virginia Biocomplexity Institute project two different scenarios: The future could hold an imminent drop-off of cases that could sink to midsummer lows by December or a continued rise that would exceed January’s peak.
For the latter forecast, the U.Va. team compared the seasonal spreading trends of 2020 to 2021 and found that the two were “nearly identical” if adjusted for the delta variant’s contagiousness.
If the pandemic mirrors what happened last fall and winter, January could reach 8,000 cases a day, according to the university scientists. Though there are more vaccinated Virginians and people with natural immunity than there were last year, the variant’s increased transmission would likely still lead to higher case numbers, they said.
That foreboding outlook comes as the state prepares to roll out Pfizer booster shots for people at higher risk of severe illness. The national plan is an effort to increase the population’s resistance to the mutating virus.
Centers for Disease Control and Prevention director Dr. Rochelle Walensky ruled Thursday that seniors 65 and older, nursing home residents and people ages 50 and up who have chronic health conditions should be allowed a booster six months after their last doses.
Some 42.7 million infections have been reported throughout the United States, according to Johns Hopkins University, and 685,000 Americans have died. About 230.8 million people have had confirmed cases worldwide, with 4.7 million deaths.
In Virginia, confirmed cases have risen to at least 637,000, with 12,511 suspected deaths.
The number of Virginians hospitalized for confirmed or suspected COVID-19 was 2,106 as of Friday, essentially flat with the previous week. More than one in four of them were in an intensive care unit, according to the Virginia Hospital and Healthcare Association. About 60% of COVID-19 patients in intensive care are on ventilators.
Unvaccinated people have made up the vast majority of the state’s COVID-19 cases and serious illnesses.
Though so-called “breakthrough cases,” infections in fully vaccinated individuals, are happening more often with delta, they are still considered uncommon. So far there have been 26,926 statewide, 273 of which were fatal.
About 4,700 more people in Hampton Roads were diagnosed with COVID-19 last week, and 61 new deaths were reported: 19 in Virginia Beach; nine in Newport News; six in Suffolk; five in Norfolk; four each in Chesapeake, Hampton and Portsmouth; three each in Gloucester and York counties; two in Isle of Wight County; and one each in Accomack and James City counties.
Virginia Beach’s caseload surpassed last week’s and was the highest in the region, reporting 1,050 new infections.
High caseloads are expected in bigger cities, but some communities with fewer people see greater rates of new cases per capita. For last week, Franklin ranked the highest in the region based on population size, at 114 per 100,000 people. By comparison, Virginia Beach had 33 and Norfolk had 30.
Here’s a look at vaccination rates throughout the region. These figures do not include the 596,000 doses administered to Virginians by the federal government, such as the Department of Defense, because location information has not been provided for them:
In Virginia Beach, 67% of adults and 57% of the entire population have at least one dose. About 51% of all residents are fully inoculated.
In Norfolk, 53% of adults and 45% of the entire population have at least one dose. About 39% of all residents are fully inoculated.
In Newport News, 63% of adults and 51% of the entire population have at least one dose. About 45% of all residents are fully inoculated.
In Chesapeake, 66% of adults and 54% of the entire population have at least one dose. About 48% of all residents are fully inoculated.
In Portsmouth, 58% of adults and 48% of the entire population have at least one dose. About 41% of all residents are fully inoculated.
In Hampton, 62% of adults and 52% of the entire population have at least one dose. About 46% of all residents are fully inoculated.
In James City County, 79% of adults and 67% of the entire population have at least one dose. About 60% of all residents are fully inoculated.
In Poquoson, 75% of adults and 63% of the entire population have at least one dose. About 56% of all residents are fully inoculated.
In York County, 71% of adults and 59% of the entire population have at least one dose. About 53% of all residents are fully inoculated.
In Suffolk, 65% of adults and 54% of the entire population have at least one dose. About 47% of all residents are fully inoculated.
In Williamsburg, 57% of adults and 52% of the entire population have at least one dose. About 47% of all residents are fully inoculated.
For other pandemic data, go to www.vdh.virginia.gov/coronavirus.
For more information on where to find vaccines, visit vaccinate.virginia.gov or www.vaccines.gov. For phone assistance, call 1-877-VAX-IN-VA.
Elisha Sauers, 757-839-4754, elisha.sauers@pilotonline.com
