UK’s next Prime Minister: Final two candidates and their chances of becoming Tory leader

Tory leadership candidates Liz Truss Rishi Sunak policies odds debate - Getty Images Europe
Tory leadership candidates Liz Truss Rishi Sunak policies odds debate - Getty Images Europe
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Rishi Sunak and Liz Truss continue in their fight to become the next prime minister as they plan to go head to head at a number of hustings events this week.

On August 9, Mr Sunak and Ms Truss will be facing conservative voters at a hustings in the North East and on August 11 the pair will take part in a members' hustings in Cheltenham, hosted by The Telegraph's Camilla Tominey.

Their last one was in Eastbourne, Sussex, on August 5, when six Extinction Rebellion protesters disrupted the event. While on August 4 they were grilled by Kay Burley and Conservative members on their campaign pledges.

In a previous appearance, Mr Sunak previously attacked Ms Truss's plans for vast tax cuts on July 29 as he faced a grilling by Andrew Neil live on Channel 4.

The Tory leadership hopeful was grilled on the economy, immigration, and his wife's tax status for nearly half an hour by the veteran political journalist, with whom Ms Truss has so far declined to sit down.

Mr Sunak used the interview to take a fresh swipe at Ms Truss's approach to tax, an issue that has dominated the bitter race for No 10.

Meanwhile, Ms Truss won the backing of former Tory leadership rival Tom Tugendhat, who wrote in The Times that her plans for vast tax cuts were "founded on true Conservative principles".

The Telegraph can also disclose that Priti Patel has decided she will not be endorsing either leadership candidate.

Mr Tugendhat's endorsement of Ms Truss follows that of Defence Secretary Ben Wallace on Thursday. Mr Wallace was one of the few remaining Cabinet “big beasts” not to have declared who he was supporting.

Ms Truss and Mr Sunak previously faced off on July 28 as they battle to replace Boris Johnson as Conservative Party leader and prime minister.

The rivals went head-to-head at a hustings in Leeds, broadcast live on LBC radio. Mr Sunak and Ms Truss were grilled on a spectrum of topics from Brexit and immigration to Love Island, and even both admitted that their favourite prime minister was Margaret Thatcher.

During the event, Mr Sunak was accused of "stabbing Boris in the back" for resigning as Prime Minister, while Ms Truss was forced to admit it was a "mistake" to back Owen Paterson.

Rishi Sunak has the edge over Liz Truss with swing voters but both are unpopular with the public overall, a YouGov poll shows. Ms Truss is favourite to win the Conservative leadership contest and become the next prime minister due to her popularity with grassroots activists.

However, Mr Sunak leads her among 2019 Tory voters who do not know how they will vote at the next election, as well as those who currently intend to vote for Labour.

The July 28 hustings event came after the pair traded blows in another fiery TV debate on July 26, clashing over whether it was "morally wrong" to put up taxes or increasing borrowing. However, the debate was cut short when the presenter, Talk TV’s political editor Kate McCann, fainted on stage.

Penny Mordaunt, Kemi Badenoch, Tom Tugendhat, Suella Braverman, Jeremy Hunt and Nadhim Zahawi were all eliminated during earlier round of voting by MPs and now the grassroots members will pick their winner.

Here, we assess the chances of the final two candidates. The latest odds are from SkyBet.

We will keep this article updated.  

Rishi Sunak

Latest odds: 6/1

The man who helped bring down Boris Johnson by resigning as chancellor could yet succeed him despite the controversy earlier this year over his multi-millionaire wife’s non-dom tax status and his own curious decision to retain a US green card during much of his time at the Treasury.

Mr Sunak on Monday night at a hustings in Exeter defended his resignation as chancellor, claiming it wasn't "disloyal" but the "right thing to do".

“It wouldn’t have been right for the country to have a prime minister and a chancellor who weren’t on the same page about economic policy going into the situation that we are going into,” he told Conservative members.

Mr Sunak's biggest hurdle might be convincing Tories that his reluctance to cut taxes makes him fit to run the country, but the 42-year-old has the requisite experience and skills to step straight into the top job.

On July 26, the former chancellor was accused of a "screeching U-turn" on tax cuts as he vowed to scrap VAT on energy bills for a year if he becomes prime minister.

He also revealed plans to reduce the country’s reliance on French ports in order to tackle supply chain problems that push up prices, and tighten benefits rules to get more people off welfare and into work.

Liz Truss and Rishi Sunak's second head-to-head leadership debate was cancelled on Tuesday night after presenter Kate McCann fainted during the broadcast - PA
Liz Truss and Rishi Sunak's second head-to-head leadership debate was cancelled on Tuesday night after presenter Kate McCann fainted during the broadcast - PA

In the July 25 debate, Mr Sunak and Ms Truss clashed ferociously over whether to cut taxes, with the leadership contenders both saying the other would lead Britain to economic ruin.

Speaking to The Telegraph in his first campaign interview on July 12, he pledged to model himself on Margaret Thatcher with responsible tax cuts.

Countering claims that his refusal to promise immediate tax cuts shows he is not a true conservative, Mr Sunak said that, by prioritising inflation, he was following the Iron Lady’s economic approach more than his rivals. You can read the full interview here

Mr Sunak has rejected calls for the British public to eat less meat, as he pledges an advertising campaign to promote local produce if he is elected prime minister.

He has pledged to protect the terms “women” and “mother” as he blamed the Equality Act for promoting “woke nonsense”.

Laying out his position on foreign policy, Mr Sunak has pledged to close all Confucius Institutes, which teach Mandarin in universities and schools but are linked to the Chinese Communist Party, if he becomes prime minister.

Ms Truss has accused the former chancellor of “pushing for a closer trade relationship” with China “as recently as a month ago”.

On July 28 he pledged a “three strikes and you’re out” rule to deport more foreign criminals, aiming to double the number of foreign offenders deported from the current 3,000 a year.

Mr Sunak also vowed to introduce a cap on refugee numbers, promising to “inject a healthy dose of common sense” into the asylum system.

In an opinion piece for The Telegraph on July 23, Mr Sunak said: "Every year thousands of people come into the UK illegally and often we don’t know where they are from or why they are here. The system is in disarray."

He has promised to create a new criminal offence for belonging to or facilitating grooming gangs, which would lead to tougher sentences, in a first glimpse into his approach on crime. He also called for criminals to spend longer in prison if they do not attend sentencing hearings and backed ministers getting a veto over parole board decisions.

Mr Sunak has insisted that he is not too rich to be Tory leader and prime minister, as he asked people to judge him on his actions and not his bank account.

He said he hoped his background, which has seen him amass a fortune in the City, would serve as an inspiration.

Read his op-ed here.

Liz Truss

Latest odds: 1/12

Liz Truss is the frontrunner to be the next prime minister after a string of recent polls found Conservative Party members – who will decide the contest – favoured her over Mr Sunak.

In an opening statement at the debate on July 26, Ms Truss said she would "put money back in people's pockets from day one, driving growth and delivering opportunities from day one".

"It's wrong that we currently have the highest tax burden in this country that we've had for 70 years," she said.

Liz Truss during the TalkTV debate - PA
Liz Truss during the TalkTV debate - PA

Ms Truss attacked Mr Sunak's record, saying that the Government had been "going in the wrong direction on tax".

Mr Tugendhat said that Ms Truss's plans for vast tax cuts were "founded on true Conservative principles". He said Ms Truss would make the UK “safer and more secure” from threats abroad.

Mr Wallace said Ms Truss's approach of tax cuts was the best way to stimulate the economy. While Ms Mordaunt hailed her as the "hope candidate".

However, on 2 August, Ms Truss abandoned a plan to bring in regional pay boards less than 48 hours after announcing it after facing backlash over the move and warnings it could lead to salary cuts for public sector workers.

Writing in The Telegraph, Ms Truss has pledged to govern and fight the next election as a "true blue Conservative".

She stated: "I believe people should be able to go wherever their hard work and talents take them. I believe in low taxes not just because they are good for our economy, but because I believe in reward for effort. I am for people who do the right thing, and who take personal responsibility."

On 1 August, Ms Truss also unveiled new plans to reduce Whitehall waste, promising to cut the salaries of civil servants working outside London and cull diversity and inclusion roles.

A government minister since 2012, Ms Truss is the longest continuously serving member of the Cabinet, having held four previous Cabinet posts. She launched her Tory leadership bid by promising to cut tax from “day one” in office, declaring that it was time to get back to Conservative values.

In an article for The Telegraph announcing her candidacy, the Foreign Secretary signalled that she would cut corporation tax, reverse the National Insurance rise and overhaul business rates.

Her tax-cutting agenda has been backed by a group of prominent economists, with seven offering their support for Ms Truss's plans for "timely, targeted and fully affordable tax cuts" in a letter to The Telegraph.

On July 25, Ms Truss said her rival's plans to put business taxes up would push Britain into a recession. And she dismissed Mr Sunak's warnings that her economic plan would stoke inflation as “scaremongering” and “Project Fear”, saying there was “no evidence” for it.

Conservative party leadership contender Liz Truss at Here East studios in Stratford, east London, before the live television debate for the candidates for leadership of the Conservative party, hosted by Channel 4. Picture date: Friday July 15, 2022. PA Photo. See PA story POLITICS Tories. Photo credit should read: Victoria Jones/PA Wire - Victoria Jones/PA Wire

Ms Truss argued she could be trusted with Brexit despite voting Remain in the 2016 EU referendum as she held a launch event for her Tory leadership bid. She said: “We need to deliver Brexit and all the opportunities it offers. We need to win the fight for freedom at home and across the world.”

The Foreign Secretary has unveiled a target to cut crime by 20 per cent in the next two-and-a-half years if she becomes prime minister. She said she would publish league tables on whether police forces were meeting targets in a bid to hold chief constables' "feet to the fire".

She also revealed plans to build 21st-century model villages to house the workers of “a new industrial revolution”. She vowed to transform disused brownfield sites up and down the country into “full-fat freeports” to turbocharge investment in Britain.

She pledged to get private enterprises growing faster than the public sector and return the UK’s economic performance to pre-Brexit levels by the end of the decade.

Recently, Ms Truss said she would embark on a “bonfire of the quangos”, pledging to divert hundreds of millions of pounds from “bureaucratic bodies” to frontline services if she became prime minister.

Ms Truss won applause from the audience during a debate when she said: “I’m always some who keeps my promises. I might not be the slickest presenter in the business but I do what I say I’ll do.”

In a Telegraph interview on July 22, the Foreign Secretary defended her fiscal plans and said she was the 'insurgent candidate' in the leadership race.

You can read her Telegraph Op-Ed here.