Tropical depression forms east of Caribbean Sea, expected to become Tropical Storm Peter on Sunday
A disturbance approaching the Caribbean Sea became the hurricane season’s 16th tropical depression late Saturday night and is forecast to become Tropical Storm Peter early on Sunday, the National Hurricane Center said at its 11 p.m. advisory.
The tropical depression, about 670 miles east of the eastern Caribbean Sea, is forecast to turn away from United States in the middle of the week, the National Hurricane Center said.
The system is moving west-northwest at about 14 mph with maximum sustained winds of 35 mph.
Upper-level winds are likely to become less conducive for development when the system reaches the southwestern Atlantic by the early to middle part of next week.
“Although there is dry air and moderate wind shear present, 95L is likely to intensify into the next named tropical system (Peter) in the Atlantic,” AccuWeather senior meteorologist Rob Miller said, “but intensification of anything more than a low-end tropical storm is unlikely as the storm moves into the western Atlantic early next week.”
The system is forecast to be pushed farther east, away from the United States, by a cold front moving east across the nation. The storm could deliver inclement weather to Bermuda late next week, forecasters said.
The other disturbance is a broad area of low pressure is located over the far eastern Atlantic a few hundred miles south of the African coast, forecasters said.
The associated shower and thunderstorm activity has become better organized since Friday, and environmental conditions appear conducive for further development during the next couple of days.
A tropical depression could form while the system moves northwest at about 10 to 15 mph to the west of Africa’s coast before it reaches cooler waters and stronger upper-level winds early next week. Formation chance for this system over the next 48 hours is 70%.
Overall, as fall nears and wind shear in the Atlantic increases, conditions for storms to develop in that area deteriorate.
“The current atmospheric pattern across the Atlantic remains unfavorable for the robust development of tropical systems,” AccuWeather hurricane expert Dan Kottlowski said.
Though Odette still has maximum sustained winds near 45 mph, the system is no longer a tropical storm. Odette formed off the mid-Atlantic coast Friday a few hundred miles southeast of New Jersey, making it the 15th named storm of the season.
Swells generated by Odette are affecting portions of the United States Mid-Atlantic coast and are expected to spread northward to portions of the U.S. Northeast and Atlantic Canada coasts during the weekend. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions, the National Hurricane Center reports.
As of 11 p.m. Saturday, former Tropical Storm Odette was 295 miles east- southeast of Nantucket, Mass. moving toward the east-northeast at 18 mph with a faster northeast to east-northeast motion expected during the next couple of days, the National Hurricane Center said.
The center of Odette is expected to pass south of Atlantic Canada on Sunday and Monday.
Just past the halfway point of the hurricane season, which runs through Nov. 30, there have been 15 named storms, six hurricanes and three major hurricanes. A 14th named storm in the Atlantic, on average, doesn’t usually form until mid-November, according to experts.
With the formation of Tropical Storm Nicholas as a short-lived hurricane this past week, 2021 became only the 10th year since 1966 to have had six or more Atlantic hurricanes by Sept. 13, according to Colorado State University expert Phil Klotzbach.
Eileen Kelley contributed to this report.
