Tropical Storm Ian: Valdosta could see 'low-level hurricane' winds

Sep. 25—VALDOSTA — Local and state authorities are keeping a close eye on Tropical Storm Ian, with forecasters saying Lowndes County could see "low-level hurricane" winds if the storm comes ashore as a hurricane later this week at the right spot in Florida.

Ian, still a tropical storm, was located about 265 miles south-southeast of Grand Cayman Island in the Caribbean at 2 p.m. Sunday. It had maximum sustained winds at the time of 50 miles per hour and was heading west-northwest at 12 miles per hour, according to the National Hurricane Center.

The storm was expected to turn to the northwest Sunday evening. Ian was expected by forecasters to rapidly intensify into a major — Category 4 — storm with winds of at least 130 mph after it enters the Gulf of Mexico by Monday night or early Tuesday.

When and where Hurricane Ian will make landfall is "highly uncertain," said Wright Dobbs, a meteorologist for the National Weather Service's Tallahassee office.

The weather service's 2 p.m. Sunday forecast track for Ian was pretty wide open as to the hurricane's landfall Thursday night or Friday, with the "cone of probability" stretching from south of Tampa all the way up across the Big Bend and the Panhandle to the Florida-Alabama border. The center track of the cone had the hurricane's center coming up through north Florida close to Tallahassee and into the South Central Georgia region.

The entire state of Florida was put under a state of emergency. Florida's last major hurricane strike was in 2018, when a monster Category 5 storm, Hurricane Michael, came ashore at Mexico Beach and Tyndall Air Force Base, effectively wiping out both.

Though it's too far out to project for certain, Dobbs said South Georgia should at least prepare for a possible "low-level hurricane" impact.

"Make sure you have resources to get through a couple of days without power, have a hurricane kit together," he said.

Jake Sojota, a meteorologist with the private forecasting firm AccuWeather, said the one thing that seems most certain is that Hurricane Ian will bring heavy rain to South Georgia.

"Valdosta sits right on the line we're drawing between two to four inches and four to eight inches (of rain)," he said.

There are two big scenarios presenting themselves for South Georgia wind damage, Sojota said.

If Ian's center comes ashore in a more easterly part of Florida's Gulf Coast, such as the Tampa area, South Georgia can expect tropical storm force winds (39-73 mph); if the storm's center comes ashore in a more westerly area, such as the Panama City region, hurricane force winds of 74 mph or greater can be expected in Lowndes County, he said.

Likewise, the threat of tornadoes in South Georgia grows the further west Hurricane Ian's eye comes ashore, Sodja said.

The Lowndes County Emergency Management Agency will meet early this week to determine what steps the county needs to take as the storm nears, said Paige Dukes, county manager.

"Emergency management has been in communication with the weather service's Tallahassee office," she said Sunday. "We encourage citizens to remain prepared."

The county had already taken inventory of its emergency resources before hurricane season started, Dukes said.

Even if Valdosta and Tifton escape serious damage from Ian, the hurricane could affect both cities in other ways. Both municipalities, sporting clusters of hotels next to I-75, were swamped with fleeing Floridians during a mass evacuation from Florida during Hurricane Michael in 2018; many campgrounds and makeshift church shelters were filled.

Georgia Gov. Brian Kemp ordered the activation of the state's Emergency Operation Center Monday to deal with any trouble Ian brings to Georgia.

Terry Richards is the senior reporter for The Valdosta Daily Times.