Tourism officials: International visitors will return to Space Coast if COVID-19 surge doesn't

International tourists are expected to return to the Space Coast in relatively large numbers during 2022 — as long as there are no surges in COVID-19 cases that would negatively impact travel.

Space Coast Office of Tourism Executive Director Peter Cranis said four factors will help bring international travelers here:

• The return of international tourists to the Orlando-area theme parks. Many of them seek to spend some time at the beach as part of their vacation stay, and the Space Coast beaches are a popular option.

• The growth of tourism at Port Canaveral, with 10 cruise ships from five cruise lines now based there, and an 11th ship joining the lineup in February. Many cruise passengers spend one or two nights before or after their cruises on the Space Coast. Cruise lines with ships based at Port Canaveral are Carnival, Disney, MSC, Norwegian and Royal Caribbean.

• The start of service at Melbourne Orlando International Airport in March of TUI Airways, which will fly a projected 150,000 visitors from the United Kingdom to Melbourne during the first year of a seven-year contract.

• The increasing cadence of rocket launches. Many international travelers come here in part to watch launches. Additionally, the Kennedy Space Center Visitor Complex is Brevard County's most popular paid tourist attraction.

More: Norwegian Escape rejoins Port Canaveral cruise lineup, giving port record fifth brand

More: Melbourne airport building $61M terminal expansion before TUI starts bringing UK tourists

Before the pandemic, international visitors did not necessarily make up a large percentage of Space Coast tourists. But international tourists do, on average, stay longer and spend more than U.S. tourists.

The Biden administration on Nov. 8 eased travel restrictions for fully vaccinated international tourists coming into the United States.

But tempering the optimism is the COVID-19 omicron variant the first discovered in South Africa last week, which is likely to quickly spread around the globe, possibly with "severe consequences," the World Health Organization warned Monday. The United States has instituted restrictions for people traveling from South Africa and other nearby countries.

"Obviously, we're keeping an eye on it," to see if the travel restrictions are expanded to visitors from other countries, Cranis said. "We'll have to see what unfolds."

Cranis said about 5% of Brevard County's tourists historically have come from outside the United States, with the most popular places of origin being Canada, the United Kingdom, Germany, Mexico and Brazil.

Record Space Coast tourism

Despite the lingering pandemic, the Space Coast Office of Tourism reported a record fiscal year in 2020-21 — as measured by the revenue generated by the county's 5% tourist development tax on hotel rooms and other short-term rentals.

The tax generated $16.94 million in the fiscal year that ended Sept. 30, up from $13.06 million a year ago and the previous record $16.02 million two years ago.

Cranis said that was "quite an amazing result," considering that cruise operations did not resume at Port Canaveral until July 31, after a 16½-month absence. Cruises historically have generated about 20% of Space Coast tourism.

With $16.94 million in tourist development tax collections, that means hotels and other short-term rental venues generated $338.8 million in revenue from the rentals. That doesn't count revenue at those venues from food, beverage and retail sales — items that are not assessed the tourist tax.

"Hitting $16.9 million is not only a milestone to be celebrated, but a view into the future as well," Cranis said. "It is my belief we will continue to grow from this new benchmark over the next several years."

"Clearly, the return to sailing at the port gave us some added boost, but also people were ready to travel, and that is reflected in the numbers," Cranis said.

Cranis also noted the Office of Tourism's marketing efforts to attract visitors.

"Both the spring and summer marketing campaigns — with a $2.85 million budget — can be credited with some of this improvement," Cranis said. "The campaigns have been able to show our outdoor experiences, such as beaches and nature, juxtaposed with rocket launches, which truly differentiate us."

Cranis said the current budget year started strong as well, with October tourist tax revenue likely to come in at about $1.4 million, up from $849,531 in October 2020 and $1.12 million in October 2019. Final October tax collection numbers will be reported next week.

Cranis said projections for November and December look strong, too, based on reports from local hotels.

He is predicting a 3% to 6% increase in tourist tax collections in the 2021-22 budget year.

Florida numbers strengthening

Statewide tourism data is strengthening, as well, according to Visit Florida, the state's official tourism marketing corporation.

During the third calendar quarter that included July, August and September, visitations to Florida totaled 32.52 million. That's up from 20.28 million in the third quarter of 2020 and 32.41 million in the pre-pandemic third quarter of 2019. International visitors totaled 1.31 million in the most recent quarter.

In a statement announcing the results, Visit Florida President and Chief Executive Officer Dana Young said: "Though the ever-evolving nature of the pandemic may continue to pose challenges, the steps we have taken as an industry and as a state have put us in the best possible position to overcome anything that comes our way. Looking ahead, Visit Florida will only be hitting the accelerator as we reenter the global travel arena and the lucrative winter travel season.”

Virginia Haley, a member of the Visit Florida board of directors and president of Visit Sarasota County, called the third-quarter statewide visitation numbers "amazing news for our tourism industry and the entire state. We are confident that Visit Florida will continue to drive even more results for our state in the months ahead."

Danny Gaekwad, chair of the Visit Florida board of directors and a hotel owner based in Ocala, said the third-quarter numbers are "a huge win for our state" that "has pushed the recovery of Florida’s tourism industry to new heights."

Looking to summer 2022

A new report from data intelligence company Morning Consult predicts that the biggest wave of inbound foreign travelers to the United States won’t hit until the summer of 2022.

The survey — which polled nearly 7,000 adults from Oct. 1-18 across 11 international markets — found the highest share of travelers said they plan to wait seven to 12 months before making the trip to the United States. Relatively few intend to visit in the next three months.

Morning Consult analyst Lindsey Roeschke said travelers still have "high levels of concern" about COVID-19 in the United States, especially since the country has a lower vaccination rate than many other nations.

"Even though we are requiring international travelers to be vaccinated to come in, there is still some hesitancy," Roeschke said. "The risk is potentially higher."

USA Today contributed to this report.

Dave Berman is business editor at FLORIDA TODAY. Contact Berman at dberman@floridatoday.com. Twitter: @bydaveberman.

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This article originally appeared on Florida Today: Officials cautiously optimistic about return of international tourists