Todd Golden: ISU's third-down woes can be traced to first down

Oct. 20—Editor's note: This originally appeared in Todd Golden's Down In The Valley blog, which appears after each Indiana State football and basketball game he covers.

When looking at the problems Indiana State's football team had in its 37-7 loss at Missouri State last Saturday, it's easy, and it's appropriate, to look at the Sycamores' 1 of 11 third down conversion rate and point to it as a root cause of ISU's woes.

You wouldn't be wrong. ISU is 10th in the MVFC with a 26.5% third down conversion rate, just barely ahead of Illinois State, the only winless MVFC team.

Considering the best teams approach a 40% third-down conversion rate, the Sycamores have been pretty putrid in that department.

However, I'm actually more concerned about ISU's first down conversion rate, because it feeds the problems the Sycamores have on third down.

What the hell is a first down conversion rate, you may ask? I'll tell you since I created it today after I noticed the cascading effect ISU's ineffectiveness on first down rippled to the other downs.

What is the optimum yardage you want on first down? Well, the most yards possible, of course, but to give yourself the best chance to move the sticks, you need four yards on first down.

So much for three yards and a cloud of dust, but four yards is a magic number to me.

A minimum of 2nd-and-6 keeps the playbook wide open (a big thing that Curt Mallory mentioned when I asked him about first down performance after the game) and it gives the offense confidence with the opposite effect on the defense. Four yards per play mathematically takes you to the end zone every time.

A gain of three yards or less isn't bad, but it doesn't set you up nearly as well. Of course an empty play (an incomplete pass), a no gain, a loss, a penalty, or worst of all, a turnover, are clearly to be avoided.

So how's ISU doing in the first down conversion rate? Not so well as you might guess.

I looked back at the four Missouri Valley Football Conference games. ISU has had 98 first down plays. It has gained four of more yards on 37 of those plays — a 37.7% "conversion" rate.

Here's the first down breakdown by MVFC game:

—Missouri State — Total first down plays: 23; First downs gained: 4 (1 TD); Plays of 4 yards or more: 10; Empty, no gain, loss or turnovers: 10.

—Western Illinois — Total first down plays: 27; First downs gained: 8 (1 TD); Plays of 4 yards or more: 13; Empty, no gain, loss or turnovers: 5.

—South Dakota — Total first down plays: 24; First downs gained: 3 (0 TD); Plays of 4 yards or more: 5; Empty, no gain, loss or turnovers: 10.

—South Dakota State — Total first down plays: 24; First downs gained: 4 (0 TD); Plays of 4 yards or more: 9; Empty, no gain, loss or turnovers: 6.

Though a 37.7% rate of gains of four or more doesn't seem too bad on paper, take a look at some of those other numbers.

In addition to the 38 plays where gains of four yards or more were made, ISU has also had 31 plays with no gain or negative yardage among those 98.

A loss is much harder to dig out of than a four-yard gain is good. Frankly, a four-yard loss on first down is more impactful than a four-yard gain given what it does to your field position, subsequent play-calling, the pressure the quarterback might fell, the effect on morale, etc.

When ISU can't move the ball on first down, it is in a bad way. Though Peterson Kerlegrand has run better in recent games, ISU's running game is nowhere near reliable enough to consistently move the ball.

The return of wide receiver Dante Hendrix certainly gives ISU a much better chance of moving the sticks — his very first catch of the game provided one of the first downs ISU gained on first down.

Third down conversion is the statistic we've all come to commonly know, but success on first down is elementary. ISU hasn't always moved the ball at the start of a series and it's paying the price for it.

Todd Golden is sports editor of the Tribune-Star. He can be reached at (812) 231-4272 or todd.golden@tribstar.com. Follow Golden on Twitter at @TribStarTodd.