Strat-O-Matic simulation: What if Browns advanced to AFC Championship Game in 2020?

Aug. 7—Editor's note: Part 3 in a five-part series highlighting five "What If" scenarios involving Cleveland pro sports played out in a Strat-O-Matic simulation. Today: What if the Browns beat the Chiefs in an AFC Divisional playoff game in 2020?

Kevin Stefanski's first season as Browns coach was a smashing success.

It included an 11-5 mark in the regular season, and Stefanski being named NFL Coach of the Year.

There was also a huge win the playoffs when the Browns stormed to a 28-0 lead in the first quarter and won at Pittsburgh, 48-37, in an AFC wild-card game.

The next week, Stefanski and Co. were one drive away from stunning defending Super Bowl champ Kansas City before losing, 22-17.

But what if the Browns delivered late against the Chiefs? It would have produced Cleveland's first appearance in an AFC Championship Game since 1989.

That would have meant a date in Buffalo against the Bills. It would have been a matchup that conjured up memories of the Browns' memorable 34-30 win over the Bills in a 1989 AFC Divisional playoff game that ended with a Clay Matthews interception at the 1-yard line to clinch the victory.

Strat-O-Matic — the longtime simulation sports game — provided the answers. John Garcia, the Chief Content Officer for Strat-O-Matic, recently ran a simulation of a Browns at Bills AFC Championship game. Here are the details:

The Browns hung in against the Bills and — trailing 20-16 — mounted one final drive with 2:27 left. But Baker Mayfield — who completed just 19 of 38 passes for 185 yards in the game — was intercepted at the Buffalo 8 with 1:15 left. The Bills converted a first down to run out the clock and advanced to play Tom Brady and Tampa Bay in the Super Bowl.

It was a close game throughout. Buffalo struck first when quarterback Josh Allen threw a 4-yard TD pass to Cole Beasley early in the fourth quarter. The Browns got on the board when Larry Ogunjobi tackled Allen in the end zone for a safety, and it was 7-2.

Kareem Hunt then caught a 6-yard TD from Mayfield and the Browns took a 9-7 lead. A Buffalo field goal in the second quarter gave the home team a 10-9 lead at the break.

In the third quarter, Hunt scored again on a TD pass from Mayfield — this one from a yard out — and Browns fans suddenly began thinking of the Browns' first Super Bowl appearance as Cleveland led, 16-10, early in the third.

Buffalo answered as Allen scored from 12 yards out and it lead, 17-16, with a 1 minute, 36 seconds in the third quarter. Another field goal extended the Bills' lead to 20-16 with 2:27 remaining in the game — a key play concerning the Browns' final drive.

Instead of positioning itself for a potential drive in which a field goal would win it, the Browns needed a TD but Mayfield and the offense came up just short.

Cleveland outgained in total yards, 316-311, and had more first downs, 24-21.

The Browns ran the ball well with Nick Chubb leading the way with 64 yards on 11 carries. Hunt added 49 on nine totes. Jarvis Landry (44 yards on four receptions) and Austin Hooper (three for 52) were the Browns' leading receivers.

Allen was 24 of 31 for 241 yards and a TD pass. Stefon Diggs was the game's leading receiver with eight receptions for 57 yards. Cole Beasley caught six passes for 70 yards with a TD.

Box score

Bills 20, Browns 16

Browns Bills

First downs 24 21

Rushing yards 133 82

Passing yards 183 229

Individual statistics

Rushing — Browns: Chub 11-64, Hunt 9-49, Mayfield 4-20, Bills: Singletary 11-34, Yeldon 9-27, Allen 8-21

Passing — Browns: Mayfield 19-38-185-2TD-INT, Bills: Allen 24-31-241-TD

Receiving — Browns: Landry 4-44, Hunt 4-18, Hooper 3-52, Chubb 3-21, Peoples-Jones 2-22, Higgins 2-20, Bryant 1-8, Bills: Diggs 8-57, Beasley 6-70, Brown 5-45, Yeldon 2-43, Knox 1-12, Singletary 1-7, Davis 1-7

Browns 2 7 7 0 — 16

Bills 7 3 7 3 — 20

First quarter

Bills — Beasley 4 pass from Allen (Bass kick)

Browns — Safety

Second quarter

Browns — Hunt 6 pass from Mayfield (Parkey kick)

Bills — Bass 53 FG

Third quarter

Browns — Hunt 1 pass from Mayfield (Parkey kick)

Bills — Allen 12 run (Bass kick)

Fourth quarter

Bills — Bass 25 FG