Steven Johnson: Three reasons why TCU will win or fall in the Big 12 title game

Three reasons why is winding down with only a few games left for TCU in the 2022 season.

While I imagine I could be typing this again in a few weeks, this week’s edition of Three Reasons Why features one of the biggest game in program history.

A win over No. 10 Kansas State in the Big 12 championship game Saturday cements the Horned Frogs’ place in the College Football Playoff. A loss may not knock them out of the field, but that’s another conversation.

For the Horned Frogs, it’ll be about not leaving it up to committee. That means beating Kansas State for the second time. TCU came back for a dramatic 38-28 win over Kansas State on Oct. 22.

Here are three reasons why the result will be the same or different for No. 3 TCU:

Three reasons why TCU will clinch its CFP spot

1. TCU knows what to expect: There’s no question the insertion of Will Howard into the lineup for injured quarterback Adrian Martinez had TCU off guard during their previous meeting. Their games are different with Howard being a much better thrower of the ball and he picked the Horned Frogs apart early to help K-State jump out to a 28-10 lead.

Howard led the Wildcats on four straight touchdown drives, but TCU shut out the Wildcats in the second half. The Wildcats had just four first downs in the second half as TCU forced two turnovers. The Horned Frogs shouldn’t be caught off guard this time.

2. A streaking defense: The Horned Frogs defense went from a unit that could put together a few good drives here and there to one that could play a complete game in the month of November. The defense allowed fewer than 20 points per game. Iowa State’s Xavier Hutchinson and Texas’ Bijan Robinson are two of the best skill players in the country, but both had their worst games against TCU.

If the defense can keep the Wildcats around 20 points, then that should be enough for the offense to finish the job.

3. A healthy offense: Speaking of the offense, TCU should be pretty healthy on the offensive side of the ball. Sonny Dykes said Quentin Johnston looked like his old self after missing the Iowa State game. Kendre Miller said he’s feeling the best he has in sometime. Derius Davis and Taye Barber are more names that should be closer to 100%.

With his full arsenal of weapons, Max Duggan should have another big day against a talented defense that TCU already scored 38 points against.

Three reasons why TCU falls to 12-1

1. Deuce Vaughn: Vaughn had a big first half against TCU, but wasn’t much of a factor in the second half. Expect the Wildcats to make sure he gets more than 16 touches this time. Vaughn is a smaller back, but his shiftiness in the open field makes him one of the hardest players to get down on the ground. He’s also a capable receiver. The Horned Frogs will have their hands full.

Vaughn had over 100 all-purpose yards and a touchdown in the first battle. If he exceeds that, it means K-State is likely in this one late.

2. Monster pass rush: The Wildcats got after Max Duggan pretty good as the defense sacked Duggan four times. Big 12 Defensive Player of the Year Felic Anudike-Uzomah didn’t record a sack, but the attention that had to be paid to him opened the door for his teammates to feast initially.

With injuries in the secondary, K-State knows it won’t be able to sit in coverage too long against TCU’s receivers. The key to stop that is to dial up the pressure and force the ball out of Duggan’s hands quickly. That’s the Wildcats best chance to keep TCU under 38 points.

3. A surging offense: Believe it or not, since their matchup, Kansas State has actually been the more explosive offense. The Wildcats have scored at least 47 points in three of their five games. TCU has scored 40-plus in two. The low-point during this run was 24 for the Wildcats while it was 17 for the Horned Frogs.

A lot of that has to do with Howard and the confidence he’s brought to the offense. Talented receiver Malik Knowles has had two 100-yard receiving games in the last five after having just one in K-State’s first seven. TCU has more firepower, but the Wildcats have enough to keep this close if they’re rolling.