Simms predicts AFC win totals for each team
Chris Simms goes through the over/under win totals for each AFC squad and makes predictions on how each will fare in the 2019 NFL season.
Video Transcript
PAUL BURMEISTER: I think it's OK to move on to the AFC over/unders via FanDuel. I got yelled at last time I tried to get past the Florio promo. So sorry. Sorry to Mike.
CHRIS SIMMS: Don't mess with Florio.
PAUL BURMEISTER: Sorry to you.
CHRIS SIMMS: He's Italian, you know? He holds grudges. You gotta watch out for him. I'm married to one. You gotta watch out.
PAUL BURMEISTER: AFC over/unders. Bills-- 6.5.
CHRIS SIMMS: Yeah, I'm going over here. I am. I'm bullish on the Billish.
PAUL BURMEISTER: We can use some other good teams in the AFC East.
CHRIS SIMMS: Yes. And I know we didn't get into it a whole lot, OK? But again, Josh Allen looked good. He had one full Tropic Thunder moment, OK? He had one Tropic Thunder moment, all right, where he ran out to the right and tried to throw a ball 30 yards across his body to the left. And it got intercepted
And he got lucky because it was an unnecessary roughness hit on the quarterback, OK? So he had that moment. And I wrote that down. I was like, man, that can't go on this year. That's done.
But either way, the Bills' D is real. The Bills' O line is much improved. LeSean McCoy is still the best running back on that football team, just so everybody out there can hear that. And between John Brown, Cole Beasley, Isaiah McKenzie, and-- who else am I missing--
This Duke Williams, I'm telling everybody to watch out for him. Duke Williams, number 82, came from Auburn, went up and played in Canada for a little while, was, like, a guy that was going to be rumored as a first round pick for a while. I had some issues. I don't even know the complete story. But I like the Bills.
PAUL BURMEISTER: You like the Bills?
CHRIS SIMMS: Yes.
PAUL BURMEISTER: I gathered that.
CHRIS SIMMS: Yes.
PAUL BURMEISTER: Dolphins-- 4.5.
CHRIS SIMMS: That is a good one. And I'm going--
PAUL BURMEISTER: That's not many wins.
CHRIS SIMMS: No, that's not. I'm going to go the under.
PAUL BURMEISTER: Really?
CHRIS SIMMS: I am. I just can't see it.
PAUL BURMEISTER: Who's your quarterback?
CHRIS SIMMS: I don't know yet. Ryan Fitzpatrick or Josh Rosen. Eventually, it will be Josh Rosen. I think he gives them a higher ceiling.
PAUL BURMEISTER: Then why not go there week one?
CHRIS SIMMS: Well, I don't know if they feel like they're going to win-- he gives them the best chance to win week one.
PAUL BURMEISTER: They're only winning four games anyway.
CHRIS SIMMS: I mean, you're right. But you know, tell that to Brian Flores, whose livelihood's on the line. He's, oh, we're only going to win-- I'm going to play the other guy. We're only going to win four games, you know? So the Dolphins, I'm going to say 4 and 12, 3 and 13. They're in total rebuild process. Totally.
PAUL BURMEISTER: I'm going to give them five wins, but with Josh Rosen.
CHRIS SIMMS: OK, I like that.
PAUL BURMEISTER: With Josh alone, OK?
CHRIS SIMMS: Let's keep that tab, OK? I want to make sure we get this-- we can square it down at the end of the year.
PAUL BURMEISTER: Take notes here, while I take you to the next one.
CHRIS SIMMS: Yes, please do.
PAUL BURMEISTER: Patriots-- 11 wins.
CHRIS SIMMS: Gosh, this is a good one. OK. I mean--
PAUL BURMEISTER: I'm taking over, so--
CHRIS SIMMS: You're definitely taking over?
PAUL BURMEISTER: Yeah, I'm going over.
CHRIS SIMMS: I'm cheating just to pull up the schedule for a second. Because I just want to go, only reason I'm pausing at all is because I maybe want to say a push. Like, that's the only way I can see it. Because I do think that the Bills and the Jets are going to be better in that division this year.
PAUL BURMEISTER: Didn't you hear Gronk is coming back after Thanksgiving?
CHRIS SIMMS: Yeah. We'll see. We'll see. He's got to get in the weight room. I know that. They also got, let's see, I might've just got this right. I mean, their schedule-- got the AFC North this year. Or no, they don't have the AFC North, do they? Yes, they do. They have the AFC North and the NFC East, which is tough. I'm going push with the Patriots.
PAUL BURMEISTER: I had you written down for under.
CHRIS SIMMS: You had it under? I'm going to go push. I'm going to go push there, right at 11.
PAUL BURMEISTER: Push at 11.
CHRIS SIMMS: Yeah. What a wimp I am.
PAUL BURMEISTER: Yeah, kind of. Jets 7.
CHRIS SIMMS: I'm going to go over.
PAUL BURMEISTER: You just want to make our producer, Matt Casey, happy.
CHRIS SIMMS: Yep. Actually, I don't really like him that much. I would love to piss him off with this one.
PAUL BURMEISTER: Oh, the wonder.
CHRIS SIMMS: Yes. You're going to go under?
PAUL BURMEISTER: Yeah.
CHRIS SIMMS: You think like way under? Or you think it'd be like a 7 and 9 under?
PAUL BURMEISTER: I think 5 and 11.
CHRIS SIMMS: OK.
PAUL BURMEISTER: Next April, we're talking about what do they do with the eighth pick.
CHRIS SIMMS: OK.
PAUL BURMEISTER: That kind of thing.
CHRIS SIMMS: OK. All right. I like this. This is a good one. We're going to have a difference here. I'm going to go over, but barely. I think the Jets are going to be 8 and 8. 9 and 7 on the outside looking in. I'm going to give them that.
PAUL BURMEISTER: There's a big difference--
CHRIS SIMMS: I know.
PAUL BURMEISTER: --between 8 and 8 and 9 and 7.
CHRIS SIMMS: I know.
PAUL BURMEISTER: Which one?
CHRIS SIMMS: I'll go 8 and 8. OK?
PAUL BURMEISTER: That's good because I had that written in pen.
CHRIS SIMMS: OK. Good. Good.
PAUL BURMEISTER: With your apprehension.
CHRIS SIMMS: I'm going to go 8 and 8. There's things I like about that Jets football team in general. I really do. I just think the Jets and Bills are going to be--
PAUL BURMEISTER: Much better?
CHRIS SIMMS: Much better. Yes. And always.
PAUL BURMEISTER: AFC North. Ravens, 8 and 1/2. That seems low to me.
CHRIS SIMMS: Yes.
PAUL BURMEISTER: Very low.
CHRIS SIMMS: So I'll say this. The AFC is real this year. There are a lot of good quality teams. I think this could be one of those years, Paul, where, like, we have a 10 and 6 team, like, maybe get left out of the playoffs.
PAUL BURMEISTER: Happens.
CHRIS SIMMS: You know what I mean? We're, like, the two home field advantages, the two first round byes might be 11 and 5, and everybody else is 10 and 6, and maybe there's one 9 and 7. And then there's a whole bunch of 8 and 8s, and 9 and 7's who lost in the tiebreakers, and then we just get some shit teams at the bottom who don't win very many games at all. But I would not be shocked. So Ravens at 8 and 1/2. I'm going to go the over.
PAUL BURMEISTER: I'm going over as well.
CHRIS SIMMS: I still question that pass game. My big thing with the Ravens, too, is, man, they get two cupcakes to start the season. Dolphins and Cardinals.
PAUL BURMEISTER: Defense is really good again.
CHRIS SIMMS: Defense is really good again.
PAUL BURMEISTER: This might be the best over on the whole board for this year.
CHRIS SIMMS: You think so?
PAUL BURMEISTER: I haven't looked through all of them yet, but so far.
CHRIS SIMMS: It's just scary because I just worry about the Lamar and the passing offense still to a degree. But he's been pretty damn good this preseason to where I'm going to give it to them. And yes, they got big o-line, big d-line great defense.
PAUL BURMEISTER: He can be kind of a version of himself last year and still get the 9 and 7.
CHRIS SIMMS: I think he could, too, yes. Exactly right.
PAUL BURMEISTER: Bengals, 6. Pretty low for them.
CHRIS SIMMS: I know.
[TAPPING]
I'm-- mmh. Man.
[TAPPING]
No A.J. Green early in the year. I just don't see it, Paul. I'm going under.
PAUL BURMEISTER: When was the last time they were 5 and 11?
CHRIS SIMMS: I know. I'm going under.
PAUL BURMEISTER: See it under? OK.
CHRIS SIMMS: I am. I am. And I don't-- no, listen I'm not sitting here saying I'm the oracle, but I'm the oracle and I'm just sad. I don't know. You know, again, it's harder now to look at preseason football than ever before and get a gauge of teams.
PAUL BURMEISTER: You have no read off--
CHRIS SIMMS: Yeah. Like, three, four years ago, we got a little feel. Team's game plan more. They play their starters more, you know. You got a feel for what a team was truly going to be. It's hard the last two years. It really is, but, yeah.
I just look at the Bengals and go, I'm not thrilled about the coaching staff. I don't think Andy Dalton's a huge difference maker. I got questions about the o-line, even though they're on the right pace, but they've lost some guys to injury. I mean, they already lost their first round pick, Jonah Williams. OK? I worry about that, on defense, I like the secondary. I like some guys in the front. But I don't know if there's real, real difference makers, enough difference makers for me to say, ooh, they're going to they're going to win a lot of games coming out of the AFC North.
PAUL BURMEISTER: Browns, 9 and 1/2.
CHRIS SIMMS: [EXHALES]
PAUL BURMEISTER: I'm not going double-digit with them.
CHRIS SIMMS: I don't think I am, either.
PAUL BURMEISTER: I'm going under.
CHRIS SIMMS: I don't think I am, either. That is a really good one, though, 9 and 1/2. I wouldn't bet this. If anybody's got extra money out there, this would be the one I'd say, stay away from.
Yeah. I mean, I think the worst the Browns are are, like, 9 and 7. But I don't know if I could sit here and give them 10 and 6 because the little things I just told you about. You know, I do. I worry about overall defensive depth. I worry about their secondary. OK? You know, yes, Denzel Ward's phenomenal. The rest of the group is meh to me. It's eh. All right?
And so if Olivier Vernon and Sheldon Richardson and Myles Garrett don't kick ass, then I think they could be in trouble in the back end of the lot. That worries me. And then, when we talked about their right guard issue on the offensive side of the ball, and hey, it's a lot of new.
I've been saying kind of all off season, I'm going to pick the Browns to go into the playoffs. And I feel like I've been backing off that here the last week or so.
PAUL BURMEISTER: Walking back a little bit.
CHRIS SIMMS: So we'll see. I'll give you the final answer on Tuesday. But yeah, I'm going to go under.
PAUL BURMEISTER: Taking that. Two unders.
CHRIS SIMMS: Yeah.
PAUL BURMEISTER: Browns at 9 and 1/2. Steelers, 9.
CHRIS SIMMS: Over, over, over, over, over.
PAUL BURMEISTER: Easily.
CHRIS SIMMS: I am.
PAUL BURMEISTER: Two overs.
CHRIS SIMMS: I'm going over.
PAUL BURMEISTER: Colts at 7. We kind of addressed this earlier. I think you believe it's going to be more than that?
CHRIS SIMMS: I do.
PAUL BURMEISTER: Yeah.
CHRIS SIMMS: I do, and it's just-- I'm going to go with the over with the Colts, too. It's just going to be a question of is it going to be 8 and 8, or is it going to be 10 and 6?
PAUL BURMEISTER: I think it's going to be more than 7.
CHRIS SIMMS: And that's what's going to be the, you know, like we said, the Andrew Luck clutch factor. Can Jacoby Brissett deliver in a few of those games where, you know, the Colts aren't playing their best ball, but somehow find a way to win it because Andrew Luck pulled them out. Can Jacoby Brissett do that? You know, it's week 13 and the Tennessee Titans are at home, and they're kind of, eh, this is a boring game. Eh, they're not playing their best ball. Can he pull them through in those situations? That's really the big question.
PAUL BURMEISTER: Texans, 8 and 1/2.
CHRIS SIMMS: [EXHALES] I'm going under.
PAUL BURMEISTER: I'm taking under as well.
CHRIS SIMMS: Yeah, I mean, I'm going to--
PAUL BURMEISTER: Not, like, horribly under. Like 500, yeah.
CHRIS SIMMS: Yeah. 8 and 8, 7 and 9, right around there. Yes.
PAUL BURMEISTER: Two unders.
CHRIS SIMMS: Yep. I mean, the Lamar Miller injury, huge.
PAUL BURMEISTER: Significant. Yep.
CHRIS SIMMS: Lamar Miller is a really good running back. A little bit where, again, you know, we look at Saquon Barkley last year and go, well, that was a phenomenal year. I mean, he's five yards per carry behind that o-line? The same o-line that we all go, damn, Eli has to play quarterback behind that o-line?
PAUL BURMEISTER: Right.
CHRIS SIMMS: Same thing with Lamar Miller. He averaged 4.6 yards per carry, and the Houston Texans o-line was worse than the Giants last year.
PAUL BURMEISTER: Yeah.
CHRIS SIMMS: I mean, Deshaun Watson, he's probably just healing up now with body bruises from what he had to go through.
So, yeah. I'm going to go under there. The Texans are tough. I really love Billy O'Brien. I love the, like, the attitude and the physicality they play with. But I think this year's a little bit of a drop off.
PAUL BURMEISTER: I think I've found what's going to be your favorite over in the AFC here.
CHRIS SIMMS: Think it's with the Jags?
PAUL BURMEISTER: Jaguars, 8.
CHRIS SIMMS: Yeah. I love the Jags. I do. I mean, I'm picking the Jags to win the AFC South, I can just tell you that right now. I already know that. I think the defense is still in the conversation for the most talented in the game, if not the most talented.
And now, I mean, Josh Allen? Who-- you heard me during the draft, right-- Josh Allen, the defensive end? I wasn't sure, you know, how it would translate to football, and I'm still not sure he's going to be, like, a superstar pass rusher because he still has no bend. But he is a physical specimen, and he dominates in the run game. And he can push the pocket, and he got even some sacks the other night, where, you know, they did some stunts, and he's going to get a few like that either way. But, either way, he's one of those guys, when you turn on the film, you go, who's that big [BLEEP] wearing 41 over there?
PAUL BURMEISTER: Right.
CHRIS SIMMS: I mean, that's what you do. You go, damn, he's jacked, and, oh, that's Josh Allen. OK, that's why they picked him at number seven, I guess.
So, yeah, I'm going over for a lot of reasons. I think they're talented, the Nick Foles factor, the coaching, I like the Jags.
PAUL BURMEISTER: Make it two overs for Jaguars at 8. Titans, also at 8.
CHRIS SIMMS: Going under.
PAUL BURMEISTER: I'm going push.
CHRIS SIMMS: You're going push. OK. Yeah. I mean, I don't think it's going to be much under, but I'm going to go under with it. I'm concerned about Tennessee's o-line. I'm concerned about difference makers in the pass game.
PAUL BURMEISTER: Like the quarterback, yeah.
CHRIS SIMMS: Not sold on Mariota. Right. I'm not sold on that. You know, the defense has a lot of good. I don't know if it has great. You know, the new OC, Smith. Damn it, I'm forgetting. Is it-- I want to say Arthur? Is it Arthur, guys? Somebody save me.
PAUL BURMEISTER: Yeah, it's Arthur.
CHRIS SIMMS: It's Arthur, right? Now his dad started FedEx, did you know that?
PAUL BURMEISTER: No.
CHRIS SIMMS: Yeah, which is amazing, right, is his dad really is. Started FedEx.
PAUL BURMEISTER: Must be a good offensive mind then.
CHRIS SIMMS: I mean, he knows how to deliver from the ground or the pass, air or the ground delivery.
PAUL BURMEISTER: There we go.
CHRIS SIMMS: But I am going to go below for the-- I'm going to go under for the Titans.
PAUL BURMEISTER: All right. Titans under 8. To the AFC West. Broncos, 7.
CHRIS SIMMS: Gosh. Damn it. The damn Broncos. What am I going to do here? Oof! Man.
PAUL BURMEISTER: You may like the defense a little.
CHRIS SIMMS: I do like the defense.
PAUL BURMEISTER: How much do you like Joe Flacco, is what it comes down to.
CHRIS SIMMS: I like Joe. I will say their o-line has been a little underwhelming to here through the start of the preseason. Gosh, it's seven months. What are you feeling? This one's a tough one. I'm on the fence about this one.
PAUL BURMEISTER: I'm going to give them 8 and 8, so I'll go over.
CHRIS SIMMS: OK. You know--
PAUL BURMEISTER: Wanna double up?
CHRIS SIMMS: Yeah. I think I'm going to go the same way. I'm going to go over with you. I'm glad. You're going to keep this? You're going to put this away in your--
PAUL BURMEISTER: I am. I hope I can read my writing as we get further along. But yeah, I'm going to hang onto this.
CHRIS SIMMS: OK. Don't get too old in the next year. So make sure you can read it still.
PAUL BURMEISTER: It's not easy. Chiefs, 10 and 1/2.
CHRIS SIMMS: [EXHALES] Chiefs o-line. Chiefs offense, I think, is going to be better than last year. I mean, that's insane, and I'm saying that out loud.
PAUL BURMEISTER: Defense can't be a whole lot worse.
CHRIS SIMMS: It can't be a whole lot worse. It definitely cannot. They're going to be more stout against the run. They're not going to be one of the worst in football stopping the run this year. I can promise you that. That's how they reorchestrated their defensive line, and Justin Houston and Dee Ford aren't there anymore. They're kind of going the size angle, right? Chris Jones is starting in the middle. You know, Nnadi, the other guy from Florida State's there. They got Frank Clark on the edge. They got Okafor on the other edge. So they're going more power base this year.
I do worry a little about Steve Spagnuolo because he can do too many defenses, and sometimes, they're just not sound because they do too much. But I think I'm to go over for the Chiefs. I'm going to go over.
PAUL BURMEISTER: I'm going under.
CHRIS SIMMS: Going under?
PAUL BURMEISTER: They're going to get figured out a little bit.
CHRIS SIMMS: Yeah. Yeah, I hear you.
PAUL BURMEISTER: 10 wins. 10 and 6.
CHRIS SIMMS: Yeah. OK, yeah. You're just going just barely under. OK.
PAUL BURMEISTER: You've got 1 over, 1 under.
CHRIS SIMMS: Yeah.
PAUL BURMEISTER: I think the Chargers are going to be better. They're at 9 and 1/2.
CHRIS SIMMS: Mm hm.
PAUL BURMEISTER: I'm taking the over.
CHRIS SIMMS: Yeah, the Chargers are-- they're one of the teams I'm really struggling with here just as how good they're going to be. They really are.
PAUL BURMEISTER: Because?
CHRIS SIMMS: I don't know what it is about that-- I guess a little bit what worries me, Joey Bosa's health. Still a little bit of a lack of big people in the interior d-line. Tillery is back.
PAUL BURMEISTER: Melvin Gordon?
CHRIS SIMMS: Yeah, Melvin Gordon's issue scares me. Derwin James being out, right? I'm going to say over for right now.
PAUL BURMEISTER: I'm with you.
CHRIS SIMMS: But I'm not necessarily-- tune in on Tuesday for my playoffs.
PAUL BURMEISTER: It's a shaky over.
CHRIS SIMMS: That's not one I'm not sure. It's a shaky over.
PAUL BURMEISTER: Might change it.
CHRIS SIMMS: Yeah, don't put a lot of money on that one.
PAUL BURMEISTER: Raiders, 6 and 1/2.
CHRIS SIMMS: Ooh, doctor. 6 and 1/2 for the Raiders. That's, like, the perfect line for them. I do think the Raiders are going to be much improved. What were the Raiders last year? 5 and 11? Is that what they ended up? I'll tell you right now. They were 4 and 12.
PAUL BURMEISTER: I want to say it was 4.
CHRIS SIMMS: Yeah, 4 and 12. Damn, they were worse than I remembered. OK. So I think I'm going to go to the under here.
PAUL BURMEISTER: Yeah. I'm giving them 6 and 10.
CHRIS SIMMS: Just barely, 6 and 10. Yeah, the half, the half scares me.
PAUL BURMEISTER: Pair of 6 and 10s.
CHRIS SIMMS: You know, I think they are a 6 and 10 who is just really a pain in the ass and probably lose two or three, like, heartbreaking games to where you just go, man, they're going to, like, kill themselves in the off season. But I think heading in the right direction. But, yeah, I think I'm going to go 6 and 10. I'm with you.
PAUL BURMEISTER: Derek Carr?
CHRIS SIMMS: Too young. You know, there's just--
PAUL BURMEISTER: Maybe.
CHRIS SIMMS: There's a lot of unproven commodities. They're young. They're in the rebuild.
PAUL BURMEISTER: Right.
CHRIS SIMMS: I mean, let's just not forget that.
PAUL BURMEISTER: Six would not be a disaster, based on where they've been.
CHRIS SIMMS: It would not be a disaster. No, I mean, if they got to 8 and 8, I'd go, damn. That was a really successful season.
PAUL BURMEISTER: Be a 50% improvement from last year.
CHRIS SIMMS: It would be.
PAUL BURMEISTER: Right. It's a win.
CHRIS SIMMS: And they're going, like, we said we talked about it a lot in the off season. I mean, they won the off season. They're one of those teams that are up there. It's just, hey, it's Clelin Ferrell's first year. It's Abrams first year. You know, it's Josh Jacobs, who looks phenomenal, first year. It's the Antonio Brown experiment. You know, there's a lot of things there. Trent Brown's going from left tackle back to right tackle.
You know, the defensive line doesn't just overwhelm me in general. The secondary-- I look at some things and go, I like it, but there's other areas I go, oh, I don't know. Can they really cover people man to man on big situations on a third and 4 and stop people that way? I'm not sure about all that. So, yeah, I got questions there.