Running Back Shuffle Up: Christian McCaffrey marks his territory
Ah, the running backs. The most important fantasy position, now and forever. Today we price them as we expect them to perform forward. What’s happened to this point is an audition, nothing more.
Assume a half-point PPR scoring format. Perhaps it’s not the industry standard yet, but it is at Yahoo and I think we’re going there across the board.
Please don’t get hung up on the exact prices, anyway. What matters most here is how the players relate to one another, where the talent clusters and where the talent drops off. Players at the same price are considered even.
As always, I will not rank the significantly injured. I don’t see the purpose of it. I tend to be less optimistic on these types of players, but you can decide what they’re worth to you. Obviously a healthy Saquon Barkley is a lottery pick.
Also, don’t get hung up on the tier names or where the divisions are. We like to break up the copy.
The Big Tickets
$44 Christian McCaffrey
$41 Ezekiel Elliott
$39 Dalvin Cook
$39 Alvin Kamara
$35 Nick Chubb
$32 Leonard Fournette
$32 David Johnson
$31 Derrick Henry
McCaffrey is an unfair weapon these days, game-flow proof and durable enough to handle heavy workloads (though the Panthers are very smart to use him as much as they do in the passing game). And forget about Cam Newton’s rushing production getting in the way; Newton isn’t close to starting these days, and even when he comes back, he’s likely to be a different player than what we’re used to. If redrafting, I would take McCaffrey instantly with the 1.01 pick.
Zeke is still a very high floor player, though I’d like to see more juice in the passing game. He also just lost his left tackle.
The Vikings want to live in 1977 but it hasn’t hurt Cook. As Michael Salfino recently opined, Minnesota’s offensive line seems much better in the run game than the pass game (not that Kirk Cousins is making his line look good).
Fournette has an insane market share on a team with a strong defense and a passable (and fun) rookie quarterback. There will be sluggish games here and there, but the team is designed to keep scores close.
If the Chubb manager in your league is sweating Kareem Hunt, you have a window to get a premier talent at a modest discount. Play up the fear.
Every-Week Staples
$28 Le’Veon Bell
$28 Kerryon Johnson
$28 Chris Carson
$26 Mark Ingram
$26 Todd Gurley
$25 Marlon Mack
$24 Josh Jacobs
$22 James Conner
$22 Melvin Gordon
$21 Aaron Jones
$20 Joe Mixon
$20 David Montgomery
Carson broke an insane 21 tackles last week, which is a good reason to stick with someone despite the fumbling yips. Carson has also taken a step forward as a receiver, and the Seattle rushing distribution is concentrated. As much as we ding OC Brian Schottenheimer, this is a bulldozing running game.
I have to keep Gordon in a modest place, given that Austin Ekeler probably maintains a healthy secondary role. And Gordon might need a few games to get in ideal shape.
Gurley’s upside is likely gone for good, and a downgraded offensive line doesn’t help. But if he’s going to be liberally used in the passing game (he was in Week 4’s catch-up script; not in the first three weeks), a sturdy floor is there. Mind you, I can’t rank him too optimistically, given the arthritic condition in his knee.
Jacobs never wows you on the tape, but say this for Jon Gruden, he funnels the ball to the top of his usage tree. Projectable opportunity is a major currency in our fantasy games. Montgomery, another rookie, has been ordinary and the Bears have a wide usage tree, but again, we have to follow the consistent opportunity.
I have a lot of Conner shares and it stings me to move him down a level, but Jaylen Samuels is going to keep a role, and Conner was dinged in Monday’s game. Holding pattern.
Mixon beat a lousy Cincinnati setup last year, but it’s hard to maintain full faith after watching the mess of the last three weeks.
[Play in Yahoo’s NFL $350K Baller. $10 entry fee and $35K to first place]
Talk them up, talk them down
$17 Phillip Lindsay
$13 LeSean McCoy
$13 Ronald Jones
$12 Miles Sanders
$12 Austin Ekeler
$11 James White
$11 Devonta Freeman
$11 Royce Freeman
$11 Sony Michel
$11 Matt Breida
$10 Jordan Howard
$10 *Damien Williams
$10 Duke Johnson
$8 Devin Singletary
$8 Carlos Hyde
The Patriots have been effective with play-action passes while Michel is on the field, not that it helps Michel’s fantasy line. And Michel, as we know, is never the intended target on any pass. The Patriots offensive line should come around; Dante Scarnecchia might be the best OL coach of all time. But the Patriots like to use 16 game plans for 16 weeks, and they’re not going to divulge things ahead of time. Sometimes decipherable patterns do emerge here (think back to LeGarrette Blount), but that hasn’t been the case this year. Despite a cookie September schedule and a constant New England lead, Michel has done next to nothing. And aren’t you sick of seeing the first engaged defender tackle him?
It’s amazing what a new year, and quality coaching, has done for Jones. He could easily push up to the $18-22 range . . . A healthy Singletary would be around $15-16, not that Frank Gore is going to fade away . . . Breida will always have a high success rate, but Kyle Shanahan has a stable of backfield talent and he likes a platoon approach.
Should be rostered, anyway
$7 Tevin Coleman
$7 Wayne Gallman
$7 Jaylen Samuels
$7 Malcolm Brown
$6 Frank Gore
$6 Tarik Cohen
$5 Darrel Williams
$5 Kenyan Drake
$4 Rex Burkhead
Gallman is a steady RB2 until Barkley returns; not a special talent, but the touch floor will be high . . . I would push Williams into double digits if the other Williams had an injury setback . . . Burkhead should have 3-5 splashy games and I have zero idea when they’ll come . . . The wide usage tree is taking Cohen down in Chicago. Nagy felt he overused Cohen last year, and the coach has made good on the aim to scale back.
Lottery Tickets
$3 Jamaal Williams
$3 Peyton Barber
$3 Ito Smith
$3 Chris Thompson
$3 Rashaad Penny
$3 Alexander Mattison
$3 Raheem Mostert
$3 Adrian Peterson
$3 Tony Pollard
$3 Kareem Hunt
$3 Jeff Wilson
$2 Latavius Murray
$2 Ty Montgomery
$2 Gus Edwards
$2 Dion Lewis
$2 Chase Edmonds
$2 Justice Hill
$2 Kalen Ballage
$2 Damien Harris
$1 Giovani Bernard
$1 Nyheim Hines
$1 DeAndre Washington
$1 Jalen Richard
$1 Ty Johnson
$1 Dontrell Hilliard
$1 Jordan Wilkins
$1 Ryquell Armstead
Notables who are hurt
*Saquon Barkley
*Derrius Guice
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