Sharice Davids’ district lost KCK Democrats, gained rural Republicans. Is she doomed?

At the Kansas GOP convention in Manhattan in April 2021, the party seemed poised to appoint former state party chair Amanda Adkins as their candidate for the 3rd Congressional District despite her 10 point loss to Democrat Sharice Davids five months before.

Though they anticipated a red wave in 2022, GOP activists and politicians openly discussed the role a new map would play. In a speech, U.S. Sen. Jerry Moran, a two-term Republican, pondered the possibility of combining Wyandotte County with the 1st Congressional district. Other GOP officials made similar points about the need for a more competitive district map.

The strategy was clear – coalesce behind one Republican challenger to avoid a contentious primary and wait for the Kansas Legislature to draw more favorable lines for the district.

“The new map in the 3rd district will play a big role in taking back that seat,” Kansas Republican National Committeeman Mark Kahrs said at the time.

That year-long strategy fell into place Wednesday when the Kansas Supreme Court upheld a congressional map drawn by the Republican-controlled Legislature that divides Wyandotte County for the first time in 40 years.

The ruling certifies a change in the political makeup of the district, shifting it from one that slightly favored Democrats to one now considered a toss-up by most of the major election analysts. It places Republicans in a better position to win back Davids’ seat and, with it, gain control of the U.S. House of Representatives.

“Almost everything that could go wrong for Democrats and redistricting has gone wrong in the last two months,” said David Wasserman, a senior editor at the nonpartisan Cook Political Report. “This is an unexpected setback for Democrats because they believed the Kansas Supreme Court would side with them here.”

The majority of the justices on the Kansas Supreme Court were appointed by Democrats.

At the Capitol on Wednesday, Davids appeared unfazed by the ruling.

“My strategy is to continue to do the job I’ve been elected to do,” Davids said. “And then now I’m gonna go introduce myself to folks in parts of what will be the new third district and, you know, learn as much as I can.”

‘A loss for Democrats’

The new 3rd Congressional District includes rural Anderson and Franklin Counties. It also adds the southern portion of Miami County to the district, which already included the county’s northern half. These moves increase the number Republican voters in the district while slicing out some of the reliable Democrats Davids leaned on to win her previous two election bids.

Davids defeated Adkins by 10 percentage points in 2020, roughly the margin of victory as President Joe Biden in the old district. Under the new boundaries, Biden would have won the district by around 5 percentage points, placing it within reach for Republicans as voters have expressed displeasure over inflation, high gas prices and issues with the supply chain.

“Today’s ruling is certainly a loss for Democrats, but it’s not a it’s not a death sentence for Congresswoman Davids,” said Jacob Rubashkin, a reporter and analyst for Inside Elections.

Inside Elections, Sabato’s Crystal Ball and the Cook Political Report, non-partisan groups that track and analyze elections, all consider the new 3rd Congressional District a “toss-up,” meaning the race could easily be won by either political party.

While Democrats said they believed the maps favored Republicans, both parties downplayed the effect the map may have on flipping the seat in interviews after the ruling on Wednesday.

Speaking to The Star after the ruling Danedri Herbert, the Republican Chair of the 3rd District, said she didn’t think the new map would have a major impact on the campaign, given Republican momentum across the country.

“It changes maybe the dynamic a little bit in that the target audience changes a little bit,” Herbert said.

Wyandotte County Democrats effectively shrugged when asked how Davids would fare in her new district after the ruling.

The answer to that question “remains to be seen” said Democratic state Sen. Pat Pettey. Democratic state Rep. Tom Burroughs said it would “be a race no matter what.”

State Sen. David Haley, a Kansas City Democrat, said he thought Davids would prevail, pointing to her “vast appeal.” But he indicated it would be an uphill battle as the map had divided a community of “strong progressive support.”

Wyandotte County, Haley said, had little in common with Miami, Franklin and Anderson counties.

“I don’t mean to sound disparaging to any Kansan, let’s just say there’s different mindsets for those of us that look to the future that are in her current district as opposed to those who are stuck in the past,” Haley, one of two Black state senators in Kansas, said.

Wyandotte County is the most diverse in the state. Only 37.3% of its population is non-Hispanic white. It contrasts sharply with the 3rd’s new residents in Miami, Anderson and Franklin counties, all of which are more than 85% non-Hispanic white.

“I think an LGBT woman of color will have a harder time in the rural counties,” said Tom Witt, executive director of Equality Kansas, the state’s leading LGBTQ rights organization. “They don’t have a history of electing anybody of color. They don’t have much of a history of electing women.”

New voters join the 3rd District

While the new district adds more rural voters, it still won’t be a perfect reflection of the country’s demographics as it’s less diverse and more college educated than the United States on average.

Since former President Donald Trump won in 2016, Democrats have become increasingly reliant on white, college educated, suburban voters – the type of voter that still makes up the bulk of the 3rd Congressional District – to win power in Washington, D.C.

Many of them gravitated to Democrats during the Trump era, frustrated with the tone and tenor of some politicians. In Kansas, voters had a visceral response to Trump-ally Kris Kobach, who lost the gubernatorial election in 2018 while running a Trump-like campaign.

Democrats are hoping those suburban voters stick with them even as the economy goes through its pandemic hangover.

“It’s the type of district that Democrats hope can buck the trend, but it’s got enough of a rural component now to make it a ripe Republican target,” Wasserman said.

Adkins and Davids both put out statements on Wednesday welcoming the new voters to their district. Davids condemned the redistricting process, but said she looked forward to meeting her new voters.

Republicans had already rolled out the welcome mat.

Last week, the 3rd Congressional District Republicans hosted a pot luck at the Paola Country Club, even though the town had been part of the 2nd Congressional District for 10 years and the court had yet to rule on the new map.

The event took on the tone of a launch to campaign season. Primary candidates in statewide races made their pitches, as did Adkins and her primary opponent Jon McCaughin made their pitches to a district likely to be more favorable to a Republican candidate.

“If this map works out we will have Johnson County, part of Wyandotte County, all of Miami County, Franklin County and Anderson County in the third district,” said Herbert, the 3rd District GOP chair. “Sorry Johnson County, we’re gonna have to drive a little ways to do some things.”

Adkins focused her pitch on tying Davids to Biden and inflation, echoing President Ronald Reagan with the question, “Are you better off today?”

She told attendees from Paola and other more rural areas she was “super hopeful” they would join the 3rd district.

Already, Davids has started playing defense against those lines of attack. Over the past few months she’s traveled around the district to highlight money she secured through the bipartisan infrastructure deal and has backed legislation to reduce the federal gas tax, though those efforts appear unlikely to pass.

Over the course of the next 10 years, the seat may become more Democratic. J. Miles Coleman, an associate editor at Sabato’s Crystal Ball at the University of Virginia, said the district could become a bellwether, flipping between Republicans and Democrats depending on the national mood.

But 2022 is shaping up to be a Republican year. A Quinnipiac Poll released Wednesday found 47 percent of registered voters want to see Republicans win control of the U.S. House of Representatives, compared to 43 percent who want to see Democrats win.

“If you’re Sharice Davids you’re probably still, at least in the short term, pretty annoyed that you have to run in a more competitive seat,” Coleman said.

Davids dismissed the notion that the race will be more difficult.

“When it comes to the campaign side of stuff, I always equate it to, I used to be an MMA fighter,” said Davids, who memorably highlighted her mixed martial arts background in an ad during her 2018 run. “And so much of that is like, you just get up every day, you do the hard work. And it’s a lot of work no matter what.”