For Ryan Tannehill, a winter of discontent awaits

To win playoff games in the National Football League, one of the first things you need to do is avoid turnovers.

That is something the Tennessee Titans and quarterback Ryan Tannehill failed to do on Saturday, and as a result they will be watching Joe Burrow and the Cincinnati Bengals in the AFC Championship game from the comforts of their own homes.

Tannehill completed 15 of 24 passes for 220 yards and a touchdown, along with three critical interceptions, as the Titans fell 19-16 on the game’s final play to the Bengals.

The first interception came on the very first play from scrimmage. The Titans, perhaps hoping to capitalize on the return of Derrick Henry, tried to get the passing game going with a hard play-action fake between Tannehill and Henry, before the quarterback looked to target the middle of the field.

Safety Jesse Bates III was waiting:

Tannehill’s second interception did not come until the second half, but it came at a most inopportune moment. After a Joe Mixon touchdown run gave the Bengals a ten-point lead, the Titans were in striking distance of a touchdown of their own, thanks to a tough run from D’Onta Foreman. But in the blink of an eye, the Bengals had the football back:

The Titans have a run/pass option called on the play, with Tannehill either handing the football off on a split-zone design or throwing the bubble screen to the outside. Cincinnati shows a six-man front with seven defenders in the box, and Mike Hilton is on the edge outside the right tackle.

Tannehill looks at the numbers up front, as well as the single coverage on the outside, and decides that the bubble screen is the best option. But Hilton works himself into the throwing lane. Watch the play again and see how the defensive back bends his path and gets upfield when he notices that Tannehill is pulling the football. That read and adjustment puts him in position to deflect the pass, and he finished the play by catching his own tip for the turnover.

Still, the Titans defense would stiffen, and the home team would eventually tie the game on this masterful connection from Tannehill to A.J. Brown:

This was set up by an interception from Amani Hooker, who’s fingertip interception erased Tannehill’s second big mistake of the game. As you can see from this end zone angle, the placement on the throw from Tannehill was pristine, as was the catch from Brown:

However, there was no bailout coming after Tannehill’s third big mistake.

With less than 30 seconds left, the Titans faced a third down on their own 40-yard line. They needed one big play to get into field goal range. A big play would come on the snap, but from the Cincinnati defense:

Tannehill tries to get this into Nick Westbrook-Ikhine, who is running the deep curl route against Eli Apple. The Titans are hoping that the threat of a big play over the top will get Apple to give a big cushion, but the cornerback plays this tight on the receiver, and Apple gets a hand onto the football, tipping it into the air. Linebacker Logan Wilson was the man on the spot, securing the football and giving Joe Burrow and the Bengals offense a chance.

The offense delivered, as did rookie kicker Evan McPherson, and the Bengals are into the next round.

And the Titans are left to wonder what could have been.

In the buildup to this game, much was made about the notion that the Titans were the “worst number-one seed” in recent playoff history. There was certainly evidence to support that position, as Tennessee entered the divisional round as the team with the lowest DVOA remaining regardless of conference. The Titans’ ranked 20th coming into this game, behind even the Bengals who sit at 17th.

But that was not the only worrying sign for the Titans leading up to this contest. There was also the struggles that Tannehill endured this season. In the past few years, Tannehill has been among the most efficient passers in the league. For example, last year Tannehill’s adjusted net yards per attempt of 7.90 ranked fourth in the NFL. His 2019 mark of 8.52 led the league.

This season? Tannehill posted an ANY/A of 5.53, placing him 23rd in the NFL and behind passers such as Carson Wentz, Jalen Hurts, Teddy Bridgewater, Mac Jones and Daniel Jones, and just ahead of Davis Mills.

After the game, Titans head coach Mike Vrabel refused to put the blame on Tannehill, or on “any one person:”

And while that may be the case, the truth is that this season, the Titans’ passing game was not what it was in year’s past. Tannehill’s struggles showed up in a few different areas. First was on play-action, where some of the explosiveness seemed lost from a year ago. Last year on play-action throws, Tannehill posted an ANY/A of 9.3 according to Sports Info Solutions, which was seventh-best in the league.

This year? That number dropped to 7.5, 19th-best in the league.

Sure, some will point to the Derrick Henry injury as a reason while, and there might be something to that, Tannehill is the one throwing the football.

There was also this. During the 2021 campaign Tannehill struggled to hit on throws deeper downfield. His adjusted completion percentage of 36.0% on throws 20+ yards downfield was the sixth-worst in the lead, as charted by Pro Football Focus. Now granted, that is not the area where Tannehill targets most often, but the vertical element of the Tennessee offense was lacking this season.

That might be an area they look to address this off-season.

But now, they get to watch the rest of the post-season from home. And wonder about what could have been.