Can Pierre Gasly Win Again?
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When Red Bull first acquired the team now known as AlphaTauri, the team was a junior program known as Scuderia Toro Rosso. Many great drivers came through the program, most notably Sebastian Vettel and Max Verstappen, but most ended up out of the Red Bull farm system, if not out of F1 entirely.
Red Bull claims that changed last season, that the team since re-branded as AlphaTauri (the name of a Red Bull-owned clothing brand) is now a "sister" team to the senior Red Bull Racing rather than a "junior" team. This is obviously untrue, Red Bull Racing is getting significantly more resources and is expected every year to be significantly better, but it does signify a change in the way the program's driver lineup will be managed going forward.
In previous years, both AlphaTauri drivers were effectively Red Bull's pool of talent under consideration for a future drive at Red Bull. Usually that meant they were younger drivers eager for their only chance in the car, but it has also meant second chances for drivers like Daniil Kvyat.
For Pierre Gasly, AlphaTauri represented a second chance at an F1 career after just twelve races in the more competitive Red Bull. With his replacement, Alexander Albon, now out of Formula 1 entirely and his former seat now filled by Sergio Perez, the door to a Red Bull return seems decidedly closed. However, he has proven he belongs in Formula 1, and, rather than letting another team snap him up like they did Carlos Sainz Jr., Red Bull is keeping him around in the AlphaTauri car for at least the near future.
HOW HE GOT HERE
As these previews get further into the large stable of current and former Red Bull drivers populating the middle of the F1 grid, Gasly's path to Formula 1 will look very familiar. The energy drink conglomerate helped guide him through the junior series, where he found reasonable success first in Formula Renault 2.0, then Formula Renault 3.5, and, finally, GP2. He ran the last third of the GP2 schedule in his first year before finishing eighth in his first full time season and, finally, winning a championship in his second.
Gasly was first given a Super Formula drive in 2017, a Japanese series that Red Bull has used in the past when it felt its drivers were too senior for GP2 but not yet ready to replace a current driver in Formula 1. He finished second in that short championship, but was called up mid-season to replace future AlphaTauri teammate Daniil Kvyat (who has since been dropped by Red Bull Racing a second time, ending his fourth distinct stint with a Red Bull-owned F1 team). Gasly then ran full-time with Toro Rosso the next season, earning a promotion to Red Bull when Daniel Ricciardo left the program for Renault.
Gasly got all of twelve races in that car before being dropped for the then-fastest driver at Toro Rosso, Alex Albon. He has been with the Red Bull junior team, since re-named Toro Rosso, ever since.
Just as Albon regularly competed with Gasly while Gasly was struggling at Red Bull, Gasly has sometimes outshined Albon in their time in reversed roles. Gasly even won his first career race in the AlphaTauri this past season, while Albon was dropped out of Formula 1 entirely after a season and a half. Albon, Gasly, Kvyat, and Ricciardo all represent four different unique failures of the Red Bull Racing farm system, and only Gasly continues to drive a Formula 1 car for the company.
GOALS FOR 2021
While it is unlikely that Gasly's AlphaTauri entry will have a chance to win a race this season, he has already proven that he can strike and finish the job if the opportunity ever pops up.
More likely, he will be in a somewhat awkward place on the grid. Last season, the Formula 1 grid was divided into distinct tiers: Haas, Alfa Romeo, and Williams at the back, Mercedes and Red Bull at the front, and Ferrari, McLaren, Renault, and Racing Point in the middle. AlphaTauri, which finished seventh in the constructor's standings despite being one of just four teams to record a race win, scored 99 points more than eighth-placed Alfa Romeo, but was never really competing for position against Ferrari in sixth.
Ferrari is expected to improve further and be more competitive with the sport's middle class next year, so AlphaTauri could be completely without week-to-week competition. Gasly's teammate, Yuki Tsunoda, will be a rookie with relatively low expectations next to his veteran teammate. As a result, Gasly may not find himself in any competitive season-long battles at all.
Instead, he will have to prove himself week-to-week. If the AlphaTauri is again the seventh-fastest car on the grid, he needs to make sure that he is fast enough to strike on the weekends the car is well-equipped to fight above its weight. If the team makes a leap and the car is more competitive, he needs to be prepared for the very real possibility that he will be in a hyper-competitive weekly fight for top five positions and, every once in a blue moon, have a shot at a podium on merit.
WHERE TO IMPROVE
Gasly beat teammate Daniil Kvyat 12-4 in qualifying head-to-head battles. He also scored nearly three times as many points as his teammate, and still beat him by eighteen points even with his win removed. He was firmly the class of the team last year, but this year he will have a new challenge.
Red Bull may not consider AlphaTauri to be a junior team, but the promotion of rookie Yuki Tsunoda certainly looks like the exact sort of move that Red Bull has made almost every offseason since they acquired this team in 2006. Gasly excelled in the AlphaTauri last year, but the battle for the second seat at Red Bull came down to the incumbent Albon and an outside driver, Sergio Perez.
In other words, even with the other seat wide open and Gasly exceptional at the "sister" team, Red Bull Racing did not consider him for the only car that will be open for them in the next five years. Perez is on a one-year deal, and Gasly could certainly be in the fight for that seat, but past consideration shows that Red Bull will probably be choosing between Perez and the rookie Tsunoda. Gasly had his chance with the senior team, and he did not prove that he belonged.
So, rather than looking to prove that he deserves another chance, Gasly is better off looking to prove that he can be a real lead driver at AlphaTauri, one that can lead the program into an age where it is competitive in its own right. Whether or not this is actually Red Bull's goal for the team, and there are certainly reasons to believe that it is not, Gasly proving he can act as a senior driver rather than as a developing prospect will open up new employment opportunities with other teams, maybe even a chance to replace a Fernando Alonso at Renault.
WHAT A SUCCESSFUL SEASON WOULD LOOK LIKE
Expecting another win is unrealistic, but Gasly has now recorded two podium finishes for AlphaTauri. In 2021, he should aim to add a third to that group. He should also look to continue his consistency in scoring points, something he did in all but four finishes last year.
More than anything else, Gasly needs to outperform teammate Yuki Tsunoda. If he does that, he closes down any argument that Tsunoda is more qualified for a Red Bull opportunity than him. That may not get him a ride at Red Bull next year, but it will force the company's hands: If they claim AlphaTauri is not here only to feed Red Bull and they employ a driver currently outperforming their best prospect, Red Bull cannot justify dropping Gasly.
Through his performance, Gasly can ensure he stays on the grid in 2022. Through exceptional performance, he might be somewhere better by then.
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