‘Pathway to victory.’ Why a July election might give the Charlotte GOP a fighting chance.

CLT Politics is a new weekly analysis of political news and events in Charlotte and across the region published Thursday by The Charlotte Observer.

With primary elections over, the handful of Charlotte City Council candidates without general election opponents can rest easy.

And the Democratic at-large winners? Recent history would say they can, too, but a slate of four GOP opponents have their sights on a surprise victory July 26, the general election date for mayor and City Council.

If they pull it off, they’ll secure at-large Republican representation for the first time since 2009.

In any other year, “there is 0% chance a Republican wins in the general election,” Charles Jeter, a former Republican state legislator, told me.

This time, though, it might — and Jeter emphasized might — be different.

A puncher’s chance?

Even councilman Tariq Bokhari, who organized the slate, will admit “with absolute certainty” they’re the underdogs.

The candidates — David Merrill, Charlie Mulligan, Carrie Olinski and Kyle Luebke — point to several factors that they say give them a fighting chance: concerns over public safety; frustration over the availability of affordable homes; and a sense among many voters that the city is not accommodating Charlotte’s growth quickly enough into its transportation plan.

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The Republicans promise to take swifter, more decisive action than Democrats have over the past decade. Bokhari also points to a red wave that, he says, won’t stop at the county line despite what people might think.

One of Bokhari’s arguments stands out particularly well, though: the fact that the election’s in July.

“It’s just us,” he said, “and it’s in summer when no one is paying attention to this.”

That could make a difference.

For many Democratic voters, there’ll be little motivation to actually get to the polls in July. In Charlotte, after all, the primary has often determined the election.

In three City Council districts, no Republicans are running. And in councilman Ed Driggs’ district, there is no Democrat running.

That’s four of seven districts where Democrats have nothing at stake besides the at-large races and that of Mayor Vi Lyles’ reelection. Lyles is running against Stephanie de Sarachaga-Bilbao, who is also part of the Republican slate.

The timing of the July 26 election, when many voters won’t be paying attention, and the fact that many Democratic voters might think they’re off the hook anyway, could lean in Republicans’ favor.

“There’s a pathway to victory,” Jeter said. “I still don’t think it’s probable; I do acknowledge that it’s possible.”

What’s next?

Merrill, the slate’s leading vote-getting in the May primary, said the candidates were “going to take some very different approaches” when it comes to campaigning ahead of July 26.

He declined to tell me what that meant, but he and the others will have to energize Republicans and Republican-leaning independents in a big way if they want to snag a spot on council.

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Merrill got about 19,500 votes in May. Former mayor Patrick Cannon, who got the least votes of the Democrats, got 25,700. Councilman Braxton Winston, the Democrats’ leading vote-getter, got 44,500.

While the July election gives the Republicans a window, they’ve got some ground to make up, and they’ll be battling some of the same apathy the Democrats are.

In the end, though, Jeter said the race is really the Democrats’ to lose. If they take their eye off the ball, or underestimate the opportunity the Republicans could exploit, they might — and again, he emphasized might — be in for a surprise.