The Panthers fell right into the Lightning’s trap in Game 1 of their second-round rematch

The Florida Panthers didn’t go as far as saying they felt like they should have won Game 1 of their second-round series against the Tampa Bay Lightning.

They did, however, feel like they could have won — especially since they led with less than 25 minutes to go — and believed the outplayed their in-state rival for vast stretches of the game.

“I’m not saying we let that slip away,” interim coach Andrew Brunette said, “but I thought we played a good enough game to win.”

This is what the Lightning does, though, and it’s why Tampa Bay has won two consecutive Stanley Cups and now leads the Presidents’ Trophy-winning Panthers, 1-0 in Round 2. The Lightning doesn’t need to win all 60 minutes, just in the most important moments, and it’s exactly how Tampa Bay beat Florida, 4-1, on Tuesday in Sunrise.

“They force you to do the little things right the whole game,” Brunette said, “and they’re patient enough, they’re smart enough that they wait you out a little bit.”

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It made the opening game of this series a flashback to last year, when the Panthers and Lightning met in the first round of the 2021 Stanley Cup playoffs, and Tampa Bay rallied in Game 1 to send Florida into a hole it could never escape in the six-game series. The Lightning did it last year by tying the game on a power play — just as it did Tuesday — and scoring the game-winning goal on a power play.

It’s the trap Tampa Bay lays and the Panthers, for the second straight year, walked right into it.

So far, the Lightning leads the 2022 Stanley Cup playoffs with 4.88 power plays per game — up from 3.16 in the regular season, which ranked third — and it’s a year-after-year trend for Tampa Bay: When the Stanley Cup playoffs arrive and referees tend to let more go, the Lightning is affected less than anyone.

All Florida can do now is hope it learned its lesson and play smarter in Game 2 on Thursday at 7 p.m. at FLA Live Arena.

“We all know what to do,” star center Aleksander Barkov said, “so it should not be a big problem.”

Of course, the Panthers have known the deal for seven games now and haven’t been able to avoid it. Tampa Bay has now had 28 power plays in its last two postseason series against Florida and converted 32.1 percent of them, including 3 of 6 on Tuesday — both numbers are increases from the Lightning’s overall averages in the last two Cup playoffs.

Still, these series are not extreme outliers. Last season, Tampa Bay averaged 3.21 power plays per game in the regular season — the third most in the NHL — and then led the 2021 Cup playoffs in total power plays with 2.96 per game. In the 2019-20 NHL season, Tampa Bay averaged 3.02 power plays per game in the regular season — just the 13th most in the league — and then had the third most power plays in the 2020 Stanley Cup playoffs with three per game.

Both playoffs ended with the Lightning winning Cups. Tampa Bay has a blueprint, and it has worked for two years and is now working in a third.

“You can talk until you’re blue in the face about discipline and penalties, but until you put it into action it’s kind of a waste of breath,” Brunette said. “We have to be a lot more cautious with our sticks and not give them reasons to believe we’re taking penalties.”

It does leave Florida in an interesting spot ahead of Game 2: The Panthers, after openly battling nerves throughout the first round, are very confident and they have reason to be. At even strength, Florida outshot the Lightning, 26-21, and had a 28-16 edge in scoring chances, an 11-8 edge in high-danger chances and a 50-32 edge in shot attempts. If the Panthers can replicate their even-strength play, stay out of the penalty box and maybe cash in on one of their own power plays — they went 0 for 3 in Game 1 and are now 0 of 21 in the playoffs — then they could easily regroup to win this series and reach the NHL Conference Finals for the first time since 1996.

At the same time, Tampa Bay is too good a team to let steal games in the postseason, especially since it took Game 1 without star forward Brayden Point, who could return at some point in the series.

“It was a little bit of a missed opportunity,” forward Carter Verhaeghe said. “We’re going to learn from it.”

Point remains out, Marchment doubtful

Point, however, will not be back for Game 2, Lightning coach Jon Cooper said, and winger Mason Marchment probably won’t, either.

Point did not participate in Tampa Bay’s practice Wednesday in South Florida, while the Panthers just had an optional skate and Brunette said Marchment is “probably not available tomorrow.”

“He’s day to day,” the coach said.

Marchment, who had been playing left wing on the third line, has missed three straight games and scored in Game 2 of Florida’s first-round series against the Washington Capitals.

Point is a fixture in the Lightning’s top six and on the power play, and led Tampa Bay with 14 goals in each of the last two postseasons. He missed Game 1 after sustaining a lower-body injury in Game 7 of the Lightning’s first-round series against the Toronto Maple Leafs and has four points — two goals and two assists — so far in these playoffs.

NHL fines Chiarot for headbutting

The NHL fined defenseman Ben Chiarot $5,000 — the maximum allowed under the collective bargaining agreement — for headbutting versatile Tampa Bay forward Ross Colton in the second period of Game 1.

The incident was part of matching-minor penalties with 9:47 left in the second, leading to two minutes of 4-on-4 action. Both Chiarot and Colton were penalized for cross checking.