OPINION: Spin specialists anoint speaker months before election

Jul. 4—Conservative Democratic state Rep. Patty Lundstrom seems to have a fan club — or at least the allegiance of rumormongers.

"Inside rumor has it Lundstrom has enough votes to be speaker [of the House]. Times are changing!" Democratic Party regular Arcy Baca wrote to me last week.

Other Democrats from rural areas phoned me with the same claim. They said Lundstrom is positioned to become the first woman speaker of the state House of Representatives.

Fiction is more prevalent than fact in political pronouncements. Those anointing Lundstrom prove it.

Lundstrom is a member of the dominant political party, but she sides with Republican interests often enough to alienate colleagues in the biggest voting bloc.

Democrats hold a 45-24-1 advantage in the House of Representatives. The numbers will shift after the November election, but it's a good bet Democrats will remain in control.

Fresh on the minds of Democrats is that Lundstrom twice voted to retain a 1969 law criminalizing abortion. Her stand was at odds with the overwhelming majority of Democratic House members.

Voting records on anti-abortion bills have taken on renewed significance since the U.S. Supreme Court recently struck down Roe v. Wade, the 1973 ruling that legalized abortion nationally.

House Majority Leader Javier Martínez, D-Albuquerque, remains the likely choice to succeed retiring Speaker Brian Egolf of Santa Fe. Martínez was part of the Democratic majority that voted to keep decisions on abortion in the hands of women rather than state government.

The Legislature in 2021 repealed New Mexico's dormant anti-abortion law. Thirty-nine House Democrats and one independent member voted to erase the statute. Lundstrom, five other Democrats and all 24 Republicans voted to keep it on the books.

That one issue makes it impossible for Lundstrom to have locked up enough support to assume the most powerful position in the Legislature. Most of her caucus isn't about to back an anti-abortion speaker.

Lundstrom, an 11-term representative from Gallup, isn't talking publicly about whether she will run to replace Egolf.

She didn't respond to messages seeking comment, but she's been less reticent with a trusted colleague.

"We've talked about her being speaker," said Rep. Harry Garcia, D-Grants. "There's concerns on her behalf about the Legislature."

The political realities of the abortion debate mean Lundstrom would need the support of Republican House members to become speaker. She doesn't have it.

House Minority Leader Jim Townsend, R-Artesia, told me the idea of forming a coalition of Republicans and conservative Democrats to elect Lundstrom has never been discussed.

"That hasn't hardly crossed my mind because there's an opportunity for a Republican to become speaker," Townsend said.

Republicans would need a net gain of 11 seats to take charge of the House. A wave that large is almost impossible. Townsend still says it can happen.

"We have a good shot at it," he said. "I'm excited about the possibility. This Legislature has failed to listen to the people of New Mexico."

Townsend says his Republican caucus won't stress anti-abortion legislation in the November election.

"People vote with their pocketbook. I think this caucus I represent is more concerned with our economy, our border security, crime and schools," he said.

Republicans have held the majority in the state House for only four of the last 70 years.

They took control 28-27 in 1953-54 thanks to the coattails of Republican Dwight Eisenhower, who swept to the presidency. Republicans most recently were in charge of the House in 2015-16. Their advantage was 37-33 after a net gain of four seats.

Rep. Rod Montoya, the Republican whip from Farmington, is as optimistic as Townsend about his party's chances of a takeover this year.

Montoya says "the misery index" — increases in the cost of living — will drive independents to vote for Republicans.

Like Townsend, Montoya said there's not been any mention of House Republicans backing Lundstrom for speaker.

"We think we can win. We're not throwing in the towel," Montoya said.

Democratic Rep. Garcia said Lundstrom has never spoken of forming a coalition with Republicans. Doing so would be risky.

If Lundstrom attempted such an alliance and it failed, retribution would be swift. She would be removed by fellow Democrats as chairwoman of the Appropriations and Finance Committee.

Abortion isn't the only source of division between Lundstrom and members of her caucus.

She contributed thousands of dollars to four conservative Democratic challengers who ran for House seats in the June primary election. Voters rejected three of Lundstrom's preferred candidates.

The outcome kept liberal Reps. Susan Herrera of Embudo, Andrea Romero of Santa Fe and Kristina Ortez of Taos in power. Mark them down as Democrats who wouldn't support an adversary for speaker of the House.

Egolf's successor won't be elected until January. Only spin specialists have projected Lundstrom as the winner, ignoring that she's not the favorite of either party.

Ringside Seat is an opinion column about people, politics and news. Contact Milan Simonich at msimonich@sfnewmexican.com or 505-986-3080.