Omar Kelly: Pros and cons about the Miami Dolphins’ 2021 schedule

It’s like an annual ritual for Miami Dolphins fans.

Even though we’ve known the opponents and most of the sites for the 2021 games for a few months, no matter when the NFL schedule comes out, Dolphins fans usually whine and complain about how the NFL schedule makers screwed their team.

The start is too hard.

The finish is too hard.

Too many away games early, team can’t set a tone.

Too many road games late, team can’t finish strong.

Not enough 1 p.m. starts at home.

The bye is too early.

The bye is too late.

Do you see how many playoff teams Miami faces?

The strength of schedule is too challenging.

First off, I don’t believe in strength of schedule. And just because a team made the playoffs last season doesn’t mean they are contenders this season. Just look at the Houston Texans from last year as an example. A handful of NFL teams annually implode.

Every team is different every year, and that includes the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, the reigning Super Bowl champions, who did their best to bring just about everyone back — and added some solid draftees.

But still, Tom Brady’s team will be different. Injuries make a team different, and you can never predict who will get hurt and when it will happen in this physical sport. Maybe this is the year Brady loses his arm strength like Drew Brees did?

We don’t know!

I’ve always evaluated the schedule on three aspects.

1. How many cold-weather games that have the potential to be impacted by snow are there? Three this year by my count (at Buffalo on Halloween....it’s Buffalo, so I expect the worst ALWAYS; Nov. 21 at the Jets, and at Tennessee on Jan. 2).

2. When does the bye week fall? The Dolphins have it pretty late. It’s the second week of December, week 14. That could be good, and it could be BAD. But it does set the team up for a strong finish.

3. How many elite quarterbacks are on the schedule? By my count, there’s three and another possible. Buffalo’s Josh Allen, who the Dolphins play twice, Baltimore’s Lamar Jackson, who grew up in South Florida, and Brady. Houston’s DeShaun Watson is the possible, and that’s if the NFL allows him to play this season because of Massage-gate, his legal woes coming from accusations from many message therapists.

By my schedule barometer, the Dolphins and their fans don’t have much to complain about. But here are five positives, and five negative aspects about the Dolphins’ 2021 NFL schedule.

The positives

1. Miami gets two tough, tone-setting division games out the way early. We’re talking week one on the road against the Patriots, and week two at home against Buffalo. All parties will still be figuring themselves out by then, so it should even out the playing field a little.

2. The Dolphins play yet another London game, Oct. 17 against the Jacksonville Jaguars, and this time they didn’t have to give up a home game to do it. I’ve done two of the four London games Miami has played previously, and they are significant for brand building. You don’t realize how important they are until you participate in them. Also, there is no home-field advantage in that game, so it’s a neutral site.

3. Miami doesn’t travel to a cold-weather site in December or January. That alone deserves a THANK YOU card to the schedule-makers. Dolphins’ players despise those games because South Florida’s heat and humidity makes their blood thin. That part of the reason Dolphins seasons annually die in Buffalo in December.

4. From Oct. 24 through Dec. 18 or 19 the Dolphins will be at home for all but two games (Buffalo on Halloween and the Jets on Nov. 21). That’s six home games in a eight-week stretch. If there was every a time to make a push for playoff positioning, this is it.

5. I like beginning and ending the season with the Patriots. It’s a litmus test. I especially like ending the season at home against New England, because much like last season, that game could decide Miami’s playoff fate.

The negatives

1. As Dolphins fan Jason Sarney pointed out this week, Miami plays the four teams they have the worst records against in franchise history. Miami is 5-6 vs. Tampa Bay. Miami’s 6-8 vs. the Ravens, 2-7 vs. the Giants, and 1-8 against the Texans. The Ravens have bullied the Dolphins for over a decade, consistently knocking the Dolphins out, and Tampa Bay’s gonna be tough. At least the Giants and Texans don’t scare anyone right now.

2. Miami’s first five games of the 2021 season might be the toughest early stretch in the NFL. Three of those teams (Buffalo, Indianapolis and Tampa) are playoff teams from last year, and three of those games are on the road.

3. The Dolphins play their toughest opponent (Baltimore) on a Thursday night, giving both teams only four days to prepare. Who can get properly prepared for Jackson with one day of on-field practice?

4. I would have loved for Miami to play the Jets while rookie quarterback Zach Wilson was still learning about the NFL and the speed of the game. By the time the Dolphins face Wilson, he’ll have been playing against NFL competition for three months (including the exhibition season).

5. Miami’s bye week comes a little late. Hell, it’s in December! This could benefit the team, giving them a little extra juice for the finish. But after playing 13 straight week, coach Brian Flores’ team might be on fumes by then.