And Now Max Verstappen Actually Has to Win

Max Verstappen had been on the precipice of glory the moment he got out of karts and into Formula 3 cars. He finished third in his one season of FIA European Formula 3, but he had shown enough. Red Bull called him up to Toro Rosso so quickly that Formula 1 had to change some licensing rules to keep it from happening again. A season and a half later, he won in his first-ever race with the Red Bull senior team. He seemed destined for the next non-Mercedes championship from that instant, but over the next five seasons he never actually put up a meaningful fight against the German marque and their star, Lewis Hamilton. This season, finally, the balance has shifted.

Verstappen's season-high five wins have given him a narrow championship lead of just eight points over Hamliton. He has two retirements, but in the races he has finished this season he has not actually finished behind anyone but Hamilton. It is a staggering season in what has proven to be a staggering car, one consistently just enough faster than the Mercedes that Verstappen seems to have what has become a fairly narrow advantage every weekend. He should be the comfortable title favorite with just over half the season's schedule left to race, a moment he has been building to since he was four years old.

Well, he should be.

Verstappen and Hamilton have been close in most of this season's races. At their closest, they have largely forced each other into minor mistakes and alternate strategies that led to the difference between wins and runner-up finishes. As Verstappen has pulled away in the standings in a faster but still reachable Red Bull, Hamilton has gotten more desperate and Verstappen has gotten more aggressive in his defenses. The ratcheting stakes finally boiled over last weekend, when both drivers threw aggressive lines at each other for half an opening lap in what seemed to be equally matched cars being driven desperately in an effort to get the position before the tire conservation that defines modern F1 races began. Hamilton dove inside, Verstappen did not give up the line, and it ended with Verstappen hard in the wall.

It was a racing incident, with both drivers at some fault not only in the corner where the crash occurred but in at least two other instances of questionable decision-making before the crash itself. Verstappen and his bosses at Red Bull, however, are adamant that blame rests solely on Hamilton. When he recovered from a penalty to win the race, it was a 25 point swing in his favor and away from Verstappen. Red Bull has been on a blitz to get him punished more significantly, possibly even with a suspension, for what appears to be no other reason but to regain the competitive advantage lost when the crash left one contender in the wall and the other still rolling.

This will almost certainly not actually happen, but it is worrying that Red Bull's response here was so desperate. Verstappen absolutely should still win this championship if all goes to plan, even if his advantage has suddenly narrowed to almost nothing. He is among the most talented drivers in the world, certainly talented enough to win a title if put in the position to do so. Now that he actually is in that position, he and his team would do well to move from this desperate and hungry position and into something more patient. There is no need to over-react, the championship is still there for Verstappen to win. That long-awaited anointment is just a few months away.

He just has to actually go out and win the races.

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