Novavax’s (NASDAQ:NVAX) stock price had fallen more than 45% in the last month having disappointed investors. It has taken some of that ground back, now down only 24% for the month, and could still be a promising buy.
The stock plunged because of the company’s delay in filing for an Emergency Use Authorization (EUA) with the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA or USFDA). In addition, the manufacturing issues plaguing the company are causing headaches as well.
But on the flip side, the bulls also have a story to tell.
Manufacturing delays, although troubling initially, are within control now. It is now stockpiling many tens of millions of doses to provide vaccines once they receive approval from EUAs filed with India, Indonesia, and the Philippines.
Also, NVX-CoV2373 clinical data vaccine reveals that it has high efficacy against variants of concern. The powerful new NVX-CoV2373 is 100% effective at preventing moderate/severe symptoms and 93% against COVID-19 variants.
The efficacy rates for these vaccines hold up well against some of the other big players out there. Vaccines for Pfizer-BioNTech (NYSE:PFE) (NASDAQ:BNTX) and Moderna (NASDAQ:MRNA) have efficacy rates at 95% and 94.1%, respectively.
But the real difference between the mRNA vaccines and NVX-CoV2373, the two-dose protein subunit-based vaccine, is the lack of side effects. Medical experts have advised those who experienced these side effects that they may consider switching to an alternative non-mRNA vaccine. It is a major boon for Novavax.
For all these reasons and more, Novavax is considered an enticing bet right now. Near-term catalysts and an attractive valuation make it much more attractive than the more mature enterprises out there.
Late Mover Status Is Hurting NVAX Stock
Novavax is a late mover in the vaccine game, coming to the fore when other major vaccine makers have sufficiently ramped up production to meet demand from developing countries.
Moderna’s vaccine mRNA-1273 is expected to generate sales of around $20 billion this year, and it already has deals in place that could generate $12 billion in sales in 2022.
Meanwhile, Pfizer forecasts their vaccine to finish with $26 billion in sales, a substantial uptick from previous forecasts of just over $15 billion.
Novavax isn’t yet approved for its COVID-19 vaccine, NVX-CoV2373. However, the company is taking the necessary steps for authorizations or approvals from authorities such as health boards around Europe.
If everything progresses smoothly, we can expect big things from them soon enough.
Novavax is eagerly awaiting an Emergency Use Listing (EUL) for NVX-Cov2373, which will allow it and its partner Serum Institute of India to supply the vaccine across countries participating in the “COVAX” global vaccine allocation plan.
Once approved by WHO, this will take the company one step closer to rewarding investors for their faith. Meanwhile, filing the EUA with the USFDA will take place in the fourth quarter.
Efficacy Rates Are Encouraging
NVX-CoV2373 is potent and effective against the virus. When compared to mRNA counterparts, phase 3 results show that it has excellent efficacy rates with an average 92% efficiency rating in combating severe cases of infection as well 100% effectiveness when fighting off highly resilient strains.
Novavax’s protein subunit vaccine technology could provide an advantage over mRNA-based vaccines because it has proven safe in clinical trials.
The development of this new, well-established form for vaccination could significantly improve the uptake rates around the world. Developing countries are struggling with their immunization programs due to vaccine skepticism, especially concerning mRNAs.
Novavax’s vaccine is a much-needed alternative for people who cannot afford to miss one day’s work. Even in the U.S., the vaccine holds promise. It can be used as a booster and convince those still on the fence to get a vaccine due to fear of side effects.
NVAX Stock Holds Promise
For a large section of the investing world, the vaccine race is over. The major players are already raking in billions. However, almost half of the world still needs the vaccine.
The new two-dose protein subunit-based vaccine is better than mRNA vaccines because it doesn’t cause side effects.
Novavaxis suffers from a delay in filing for authorizations and manufacturing issues. Once that’s done, though, they will generate billions with their large supply deals, including an agreement up to 200 million doses to the European Union.
Finally, even though NVAX stock is not trading close to fundamentals, it is still more affordable than the other major vaccine plays out there like Moderna.
On the publication date, Faizan Farooque did not have (either directly or indirectly) any positions in the securities mentioned in this article. The opinions expressed in this article are those of the writer, subject to the InvestorPlace.com Publishing Guidelines.
Faizan Farooque is a contributing author for InvestorPlace.com and numerous other financial sites. Faizan has several years of experience analyzing the stock market and was a former data journalist at S&P Global Market Intelligence.
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