NFL Week 8 picks: Will 49ers stay perfect?
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Can the San Francisco 49ers maintain their unblemished record? Are the New England Patriots favored by too much?
Our experts reveal their favorite bets of Week 8, featuring spread and over/under picks for the following games:
● Bengals vs. Rams (in London): 1 p.m. ET
● Jets at Jaguars: 1 p.m. ET
● Broncos at Colts: 1 p.m. ET
● Panthers at 49ers: 4:05 p.m. ET
Let’s dig in.
Odds as of Friday evening and via PointsBet, where Action Network users can access an exclusive promotion to get a 200% deposit match (deposit $50, bet with $150).
Matthew Freedman: Rams -12.5 vs. Bengals
The Bengals are probably not as bad as the Dolphins, but I’m not sure they’re significantly better, especially when you factor in Cincy’s aforementioned cornerback injuries and mismatch in the passing game for the Rams.
So I like the Rams anyway, and there’s just something about the London game. I think the problems bad teams tend to be exacerbated with the travel and the neutral field.
Since the NFL International Series started in 2007, the London favorites are 17-9 against the spread (28% ROI). And regular-season favorites on a neutral field are 26-12-2 ATS (31.9% ROI).
I like the Rams at anything -14 or better.
John Ewing: Jets-Jaguars Under 40.5
An early forecast for this game calls for windy conditions (12 mph). Blustery weather can impact the passing and kicking games, which creates a low-scoring environment.
Historically, it’s been profitable to bet the under in windy games.
Not only do the windy conditions point to the under, but these teams match up well defensively against the other’s offensive strengths. The Jets ranks ninth in Football Outsiders’ defensive rushing DVOA, while the Jaguars have attempted the sixth most carries this season.
The Jets have the ninth-highest passing play percentage (63%) in the NFL and will go up against the Jags secondary that’s in the top-half of the league in passing yards allowed per game.
I’d bet the under down to 40 points. [In New Jersey? Bet now at PointsBet]
Chad Millman: Colts -5 vs. Broncos
Here’s what I keep thinking: Within hours of Andrew Luck retiring, the Colts signed Jacoby Brissett to a $30 million deal. They didn’t wait to see how he would do this season. They didn’t look for a replacement because they knew what they had.
While bookmakers and gamblers undervalued them for several weeks, the front office had already built an impressive combination of effective running game, efficient passing game and an offensive line that gets more social media love than any of the Colts skill players.
Other than laying a predictable egg against Oakland — too much hype and over-adjustment that week — this team has methodically delivered. I believe that the Broncos are the team that didn’t show up against the Chiefs — remember they were down seven when Patrick Mahomes was injured and couldn’t stop and immobile Matt Moore from slinging dimes.
The Colts are a great value pick at under seven points. But get it fast: Wise guys and the public alike are betting the Colts right now.
Sean Koerner: Panthers-49ers Under 42
This under is popping in my Pass/Run Funnel Model with a rating of -0.73, which gives it a downright silly 81 percent in-sample predictive win rate. There have been only six games this season that have earned a rating below -0.5, and the under is now 5-1. It makes sense as the 49ers’ defense has been arguably the second-best in the league (behind the Patriots), and based on the fact that they become the slowest paced team in the league when winning (FO).
It may be worth waiting to see if the 64 percent of the money coming in on the over can push this up to 42.5 or even 43, but I highly doubt sharps will allow that.
Fire up the under here.
PJ Walsh: Panthers-49ers Under 42
Sean made a compelling case for the under. In addition to his analysis, the current forecast is calling for windy weather, including steady cross-field breezes of 14 mph.
According to Bet Labs, unders are 469-368-10 (56 percent) in NFL games played in double-digit winds since 2003.
The combination of San Francisco’s stingy defense, a slow-paced game and weather conditions that make it difficult to connect on long, explosive pass plays solidify this under my favorite bet of the day.
Chris Raybon: Panthers +5.5 at 49ers
The Panthers don’t have the shiny undefeated record that the 49ers do, but this is a matchup of two more evenly matched teams than you might think.
The Panthers defense is ranked No. 3 in the league in Adjusted Net Yards per Pass Attempt (5.1), just one spot behind the 49ers (4.3). And on offense, Carolina is averaging 31.3 points per game in the four games since Kyle Allen took over for Cam Newton, with as many 30-point games (three) over that span as the 49ers have had all season. In fact, the Panthers do sport an undefeated record if you take out the two games with Newton.
Especially since the 49ers’ run game has taken a step back since fullback Kyle Juszczyk went down (118 yards per game over the last two compared to 200 over the first four) while Carolina has posted 129.0 rushing yards per game despite facing the league’s top run defense (Tampa Bay) twice already, it’s tough to point to a spot where Carolina is significantly outmatched.
As brilliant as Kyle Shanahan has been, he’s 2-7 ATS as a favorite, according to our Bet Labs data, while Ron Rivera is 24-14 as an underdog.
The number for San Francisco is slightly inflated; I’d bet Carolina down to +4.5.
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