NFL power rankings: Patriots stay hot, Ravens slip and the Chargers bounce back

Each week of the NFL season, The Baltimore Sun will rank all 32 NFL teams. The rankings will take into account not just weekly performance, but how well each team measures up as Super Bowl contenders, regardless of win-loss record.

Here are the rankings after Week 13:

The top contenders

1. Arizona Cardinals (10-2; No. 1 last week)

2. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (9-3; No. 2)

3. Green Bay Packers (9-3; No. 3)

4. New England Patriots (9-4; No. 4)

5. Kansas City Chiefs (8-4; No. 6)

6. Dallas Cowboys (8-4; No. 8)

7. Baltimore Ravens (8-4; No. 5)

8. Buffalo Bills (7-5; No. 7)

9. Los Angeles Rams (8-4; No. 9)

There wasn’t much change at the top this week. The Cardinals got quarterback Kyler Murray and wide receiver DeAndre Hopkins back from injury and promptly handled the Bears, 33-22, to become the first team to reach 10 wins this season. Their playoff spot is all but assured, so now it comes down to whether they can hold off the Bucs and Packers to clinch the top seed and a first-round bye in the NFC. Arizona has a 44% chance of landing the top spot, according to FiveThirtyEight’s projections, but upcoming games against the Rams and Colts will be tricky.

The Bucs have shaken off a midseason slump to win their third straight, 30-17 over the Falcons. Tom Brady leads the league in passing yards (3,771) and touchdown passes (34) as he continues to put together a Most Valuable Player campaign at age 44. To make things even more interesting, his former team is growing into a powerhouse in the AFC. According to ESPN’s Football Power Index, there’s a 10% chance of Buccaneers vs. Patriots in the Super Bowl, the likeliest of any potential matchup. It goes without saying that Bill Belichick vs. Brady for the championship would be the most watched (and talked about) Super Bowl in league history.

So how are these Patriots doing it? A 14-10 win over the Bills on Monday night put New England in pole position for the top seed in the AFC, and all it took was three Mac Jones passes — the fewest by any team since the Bills threw two in a Week 3 win over the Jets in 1974. In windy conditions, the Patriots rushed for 222 yards while holding Buffalo to 4.0 yards per play. Jones is still just a rookie, but the Patriots are able to compete against teams with better quarterbacks thanks to a dominant offensive line and a disciplined defense.

The Ravens, meanwhile, squandered a chance to stay on top of the AFC in a 20-19 loss to the Steelers. John Harbaugh’s decision to go for the winning 2-point conversion backfired when Mark Andrews couldn’t hang on to Lamar Jackson’s pass into the flat, and the Ravens got even more bad news after the game when cornerback Marlon Humphrey was ruled out for the season with a torn pectoral muscle. The Ravens have 22 players on injured reserve and 81 starts missed because of injury, according to ESPN. They’ve been able to stay on top of the AFC North despite it all, but a worrying stretch of turnovers from Jackson, who threw another interception in Sunday’s loss, raises more questions about their Super Bowl chances. A closing stretch of games against the Browns, Packers, Bengals, Rams and Steelers will determine how much of a factor this team will be in January.

On the cusp of contention

10. Tennessee Titans (8-4, No. 10)

11. Los Angeles Chargers (7-5; No. 14)

12. Indianapolis Colts (7-6; No. 12)

13. Cincinnati Bengals (7-5; No. 11)

Just when you think the Chargers aren’t serious contenders, they pull you back in. Los Angeles almost blew a 24-0 lead in a 41-22 win over the Bengals, but a dominant 17-0 fourth quarter salted the game away. Justin Herbert out-dueled fellow 2020 draft pick Joe Burrow, throwing for 317 yards and three touchdowns — although Burrow was unlucky to have a long touchdown catch turned into an interception when it bounced off receiver Ja’Marr Chase’s hands. Herbert was particularly effective throwing downfield, completing five of seven attempts for 188 yards on passes thrown 20-plus yards. If the Chargers open up the offense a bit to allow Herbert to attack deep with his big arm, this team is capable of beating anyone in the AFC.

Like the Patriots, the Colts continue to rely on their offensive line to pave the way to victory. But New England doesn’t have a running back like Jonathan Taylor, who rushed for 143 yards and two touchdowns in a 31-0 rout of the Texans. Carson Wentz won’t scare many defensive coordinators, but he isn’t being asked to do too much during the Colts’ recent stretch of dominance. Indianapolis has climbed to eighth in Football Outsiders’ DVOA rankings, putting it in the same tier as the Chiefs and ahead of the Packers. This is a team to watch during the stretch run, especially if it can surpass the Titans for the AFC South title.

The wild cards

14. San Francisco 49ers (6-6; No. 13)

15. Cleveland Browns (6-6; No. 16)

16. Pittsburgh Steelers (6-5-1; No. 22)

17. Washington Football Team (6-6; No. 19)

18. Miami Dolphins (6-7; No. 20)

The 49ers have been one of the most difficult teams to figure out this season, and a lot of that uncertainty falls on quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo. He threw two interceptions in Sunday’s wacky 30-23 loss to the Seahawks, including one that led directly to the go-ahead touchdown in the third quarter. Tight end George Kittle once again looks like one of the best players in the NFL, recording 181 receiving yards and two touchdowns on 12 targets Sunday, but until this team gets a more consistent effort from Garoppolo and its defense, the wild-card round is probably as far as it can go.

If the Niners do find a way to sneak into the playoffs, it’ll have to compete with the Washington Football Team. A 17-15 victory over the Raiders marked Washington’s fourth straight, an improbable run that has put the team in the driver’s seat for a playoff spot in the NFC. Veteran quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick is set to have season-ending hip surgery, which means it’s up to Taylor Heinicke to lead the way. He’s proven more than capable, and the defense’s performance of late is encouraging, especially after losing star defensive end Chase Young for the season. Washington could even steal the NFC East title from the Cowboys if it wins out, but the Football Team having a 51% chance to make the postseason, according to FiveThirtyEight, is better than anyone expected after a 2-6 start.

In the AFC, the Dolphins are putting together their own surprising run. Miami has won five straight after starting 1-7, the latest a 20-9 victory over the Giants. Tua Tagovailoa keeps getting chided for his short passes, but given the ineffectiveness of Miami’s offensive line, he’s doing the best he can. The Dolphins still have low odds of making the playoffs thanks to a season-ending stretch against the Titans and Patriots, but this winning streak might have saved coach Brian Flores’ job.

Still hanging on

19. Denver Broncos (6-6; No. 17)

20. Las Vegas Raiders (6-6; No. 18)

21. Philadelphia Eagles (6-7; No. 21)

22. Minnesota Vikings (5-7; No. 15)

23. New Orleans Saints (5-7; No. 24)

24. Atlanta Falcons (5-7; No. 23)

25. Seattle Seahawks (4-8; No. 28)

Is this the end of coach Mike Zimmer’s tenure in Minnesota? The Vikings’ 29-27 loss to the winless Lions stings, especially the way it happened. Minnesota’s soft prevent defense allowed Detroit to march 75 yards in the final 1:50, ending with an 11-yard touchdown pass from Jared Goff to rookie Amon-Ra St. Brown with no time remaining. The Vikings inexplicably left Brown plenty of room to make the catch in the front of the end zone, a costly mistake that could swing the NFC playoff race. Quarterback Kirk Cousins has just one year left on his deal, which means the Vikings could look to draft a rookie quarterback and start a full rebuild.

The Saints might be making a similar move this offseason. Taysom Hill — first player in NFL history to pass for 250 yards, rush for 100 yards and also throw four interceptions in a single game in Thursday’s 27-17 loss to the Cowboys — doesn’t look like the long-term answer at quarterback, no matter how badly coach Sean Payton wants to prove otherwise. New Orleans is projected to be more than $60 million over the salary cap this offseason, which makes rebuilding on the fly extremely difficult.

The basement

26. Carolina Panthers (5-7; No. 25)

27. New York Giants (4-8; No. 26)

28. Chicago Bears (4-8; No. 27)

29. New York Jets (3-9; No. 29)

30. Houston Texans (2-10; No. 30)

31. Jacksonville Jaguars (2-10; No. 31)

32. Detroit Lions (1-10-1; No. 32)

The Panthers surprisingly fired offensive coordinator Joe Brady on Sunday, parting ways with one of the most sought-after young coaches in the sport. Brady seemed closer to getting his own head coaching gig than losing his job, but an apparent disagreement with coach Matt Rhule over play-calling led to his departure. The Panthers’ trade for Sam Darnold looks like a disaster, made even more so by Carolina passing on quarterbacks Justin Fields and Mac Jones in the 2021 draft. The Panthers have one of the best young rosters in the league, but they still need to figure out their plan at quarterback before being taken seriously.