Reason to believe in a Russell Wilson rebound vs. WFT for DFS?

By Jeff Hicks, 4for4

Special to Yahoo Sports

Yahoo's single-game DFS offering has a roster construction of one "Superstar" that scores at a 1.5 multiplier, while the remaining four FLEX roster spots accumulate points at the normal rate. This is half-point PPR scoring and the "Superstar" salary does not change from the Utility. All scoring and rules can be found here.

It is vital to remember that single-game slates are not simply a “max salary, play as many big names as possible, and submit” format, especially in larger tournament fields. We need to identify players who can be pieces in their offense’s success, whether in the lead or trailing, as well as the players who could be focal points in a neutral game script. The ability to then take those players and identify which will succeed in the single-game format will put us in a better position to succeed as daily fantasy players.

Two stoppable forces will try to top each other when the Seattle Seahawks travel east to take on the Washington Football Team.

Vegas Total and Spread

Seattle is a one-point road favorite with an over/under of 47.5 points. The Seahawks have an implied team total of 24.25 points, while WFT has an implied team total of 23.25 points.

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Potential Game Flow Scenarios

As bad as these two teams have been overall, both having implied team totals of three-plus touchdowns allows for the opportunity to get creative because each offense has a chance to move the football against subpar defenses.

The biggest roadblock preventing the Seahawks from executing with some sense of consistency is Russell Wilson ($32). Missing one month because of surgery on a broken finger not only limited his ability to throw, but it showed that Wilson was rusty. In two games since returning from surgery, Wilson has 367 passing yards, a 56.7% completion percentage, and as many touchdown passes as you and I. Wilson gets the 32nd-ranked defense in schedule-adjusted fantasy points allowed (aFPA) to quarterbacks but could be the first signal-caller to not reach double-digit fantasy points against the once-proud WFT defense ($12).

Russ not cooking hurts every aspect of the Seahawks offense. Defenses have been able to attack Wilson knowing his limitations, capping any upside that DK Metcalf ($29) and Tyler Lockett ($23) had. Metcalf has a stat line of 7/57/0 in two games since Wilson’s return, while Lockett took advantage of his slot role in Week 11 to the tune of 115 receiving yards. That total accounts for 83% of his yards in two games with Wilson post-surgery. It is no surprise to see Metcalf and Lockett as top breakout candidates this week using 4for4’s Breakout Receiver Model.

Gerald Everett ($12) has been Wilson’s safety valve the past two games, collecting 11 receptions on 12 targets.

Wilson and Geno Smith ($20) have been asked to pass more in the red zone since Week 7 in large part to the now season-ending injury to Chris Carson. From Weeks 7-11, Seattle is passing 65% of the time in the red zone compared to 57% overall. Alex Collins ($16), DeeJay Dallas ($10), Rashaad Penny (out), and Travis Homer (out) have struggled and Penny is once again hurt. As the lead back, Collins has not reached 45 yards rushing in four games and cedes the majority of passing work to Dallas and Homer prior to his injury.

The situation for WFT is not rosy, but there appears to be good news ahead of kickoff. Logan Thomas ($16) is expected to be activated from IR and play. That is a huge boon for a team that utilizes the tight end. Ricky Seals-Jones is doubtful for tonight’s game, so the timing of Thomas’s return is perfect.

Taylor Heinicke ($24) is far from perfect as a signal-caller, but hell if he is not entertaining to watch — good and bad. He also knows where his bread is buttered. Terry McLaurin ($20) has had at least seven targets in every game Heinicke has started this season and only three games with fewer than 50 yards receiving. McLaurin was supposed to have help in the passing attack from Thomas, Curtis Samuel ($12, questionable – groin), and rookie Dyami Brown ($10), but injuries and inconsistency have derailed the WFT offense.

The way Antonio Gibson ($22) has run the ball the past few games it would be difficult to know that he has a fracture in one of his shins. Gibson has 43 carries and 45 total touches in two games since their bye. Gibson’s lead-back role is locked in, keeping J.D. McKissic ($17) to relief work and passing down touches, which he excels at.

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Here’s a brief rundown of which players would likely benefit the most from various game flow scenarios.

Close, low-scoring game

• Russell Wilson

• Alex Collins

• Tyler Lockett

• Gerald Everett

• Seahawks defense

• Taylor Heinicke

• Antonio Gibson

• Terry McLaurin

• WFT defense

Close, high-scoring game

• Russell Wilson

• Alex Collins

• DK Metcalf

• Tyler Lockett

• Gerald Everett

• Taylor Heinicke

• Antonio Gibson

• J.D. McKissic

• Terry McLaurin

• Curtis Samuel

• Logan Thomas

Blowout for home team

• Taylor Heinicke

• Antonio Gibson

• J.D. McKissic

• Terry McLaurin

• Curtis Samuel

• DeAndre Carter

• Logan Thomas

• WFT defense

• Russell Wilson

• DeeJay Dallas

• DK Metcalf

• Tyler Lockett

• Gerald Everett

Blowout for road team

• Russell Wilson

• Alex Collins

• DK Metcalf

• Tyler Lockett

• D'Wayne Eskridge

• Gerald Everett

• Seahawks defense

• Taylor Heinicke

• J.D. McKissic

• Terry McLaurin

• Logan Thomas

Cheap/Unique Stacking Option

Traditional stacks such as QB/WR1 or WR2, QB/TE, and RB/DEF are stacks seen used in winning lineups. The obvious choice is not always the winning choice. Below is a cheap stack with at least one unique quality that could break the slate.

Antonio Gibson ($22) and Washington Football Team Defense ($12)

Gibson’s workload fits like a glove against the Seahawks defense, which ranks 31st in aFPA against opposing running backs. The WFT defense has played better the past two games, allowing 9.0 and 9.57 yards per completion, and 7.0 or fewer yards per attempt to Cam Newton and Tom Brady. WFT also blitzes on 32.2% of snaps, getting pressure on opposing quarterbacks 24.6% of the time, and forcing quarterbacks to hurry 10.3% of throws, all in the top half of the NFL. The sacks have not been there, but Seattle allows 3.3 per game. Only the Bears have lost more yards to sacks than Seattle.

Low-Salary Volatile Plays

Curtis Samuel ($12)

It is if, not when Samuel finishes a game in 2021. He has played two games this season, finishing one. The talent is there but the health is not.

Will Dissly ($10)

Dissly has one fewer red-zone target than Gerald Everett (3-2) and his lone red-zone catch ended in a score. He also has a catch in every game played this season.

D’Wayne Eskridge ($10)

The Seahawks spent good draft capital on the older Eskridge this past draft. A concussion derailed his season but he immediately stepped into three-wide sets once he was cleared a couple of weeks ago. Only Freddie Swain ($13) and Tyler Lockett have deeper average target depths since Russell Wilson returned, and Swain is the only one to not score fantasy points.

John Bates ($10)

If Logan Thomas is not activated or on a snap count, Bates would be the best minimum-priced target in this game. Bates stepped up once Ricky Seals-Jones was hurt two weeks ago, gathering six receptions for 48 yards. Taylor Heinicke enjoys targeting his tight ends.

Superstar Picks

Terry McLaurin ($20)

McLaurin’s salary is low, making him a lock for this slate. The Seahawks are seventh in aFPA against wideouts, but it has been clear that whomever his QB is will get the ball to him.

Antonio Gibson ($22)

Gibson will have the most touches in this game of any non-QB. Seattle is a clear run funnel defense.

DK Metcalf ($29)

If Metcalf is not the most talented player in this game, he is 1B. He has a 0.51 expected touchdown rate since Wilson returned and has been too quiet with an elite matchup.

Logan Thomas ($16)

Some DFS players will prefer to wait and see how Thomas looks in his first action since September 26. Like I mentioned earlier, Heinicke utilizes his tight ends and Thomas is one of the better at the position the past two seasons. The Seahawks are 31st in aFPA to the position.

Gerald Everett ($12)

His three largest yardage outputs have come on the road, including an eight-catch, 63-yard performance in Week 10 at Green Bay.

Other Superstar Considerations

Taylor Heinicke, Russell Wilson, Tyler Lockett

This article originally appeared in its full form on 4for4.com

Jeff has played fantasy sports since 2001. He has covered fantasy and traditional sports at the pro, semi-pro, and amateur level for the better part of a decade. Born in Illinois and currently living where James Robinson made a name for himself in college, Jeff enjoys running (establish it), followed by doing absolutely nothing.

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