NASCAR Power Rankings: Who has the best shot of Round 2 success?
Let’s do something a little different this week in Power Rankings. With 12 drivers now alive in the playoffs and 12 spots traditionally available in the Power Rankings, it’s pretty obvious that the 12 playoff drivers would be the 12 drivers in the rankings. So we’re going to rank those drivers based on how we think their chances for advancing through to the second round are. That means we think drivers in spots Nos. 9-12 have some work to do.
1. Kyle Busch: 3,046 points
Busch doesn’t deserve any derision for his decision to park his car late in Sunday’s race. He had already clinched advancement into the second round, had a car at less than 100 percent and had no chance to win. You want him to drive around the track for absolutely no incentive, just because?
If Joe Gibbs Racing’s three cars fare well at Dover it’ll be fascinating to see if the team tries another widespread strategy at Talladega to keep Busch, Martin Truex Jr. and Denny Hamlin out of trouble. Busch has struggled at Talladega simply because he gets wrecked a lot.
And let’s be real, Busch hasn’t been as great lately as he was earlier in the season. But that was a really high bar he set in the first half of 2019. He should advance to the third round with no problem.
Odds of advancing: 90 percent
2. Martin Truex Jr.: 3,041
Truex won at Dover in May and should be considered the favorite there this week. He’s the guy with the best playoff run so far and has the most speed of any of the three JGR cars. Plus, Dover has become a pretty boring track-position place. Don’t you want Cole Pearn as your crew chief when you’re going to a race where strategy will be key?
Truex hasn’t had the best luck at Talladega recently either. But that’s where the playoff points come in. And besides, if he wins at Dover, he can do whatever the heck he wants at Talladega.
Odds of advancing: 90 percent
3. Denny Hamlin: 3,030
Hamlin’s still my pick for the title even if I’m putting him third on this list. He’s got the best track record of any of his teammates at Talladega and has five top-10 finishes in the last seven Dover races. He should be feeling pretty good if he avoids a bad finish at the concrete mile.
Odds of advancing: 85 percent
4. Kevin Harvick: 3,028
Truex Jr.’s dominance in the first round overshadows Harvick’s average finish of fourth in the first three races of the playoffs. And Harvick may very well have won at the Roval if it wasn’t for the caution for Ricky Stenhouse Jr. that set up the final three cautions of the race.
A lot has changed from May to October, but it’s worth remembering that Harvick had the fastest car at Kansas for a good chunk of the race before an unplanned pit stop made things go awry.
Odds of advancing: 85 percent
5. Chase Elliott: 3,024
Elliott is the only driver who can say he’s won at Dover, Talladega and Kansas in the last calendar year. That’s a recipe for surefire advancement, right? Well, we like Elliott’s odds. But the rules are drastically different than from the last time Elliott won at Dover and Kansas. Will Elliott have a car capable of hanging with the JGR Toyotas at either of those tracks?
Talladega looks like his best shot for a win among the three tracks. He’ll likely qualify up front and should stay there for much of the race, barring any bad luck.
Odds of advancing: 80 percent
6. Brad Keselowski: 3,024
Keselowski won at Kansas in the spring, is one of the best plate racers around and has only finished lower than 16th at Dover once in the last five and a half years.
Putting Keselowski this low in the standings isn’t an indictment of him or his team’s performance. He’s a legitimate contender to make the title race at Homestead. But so are six other drivers at this point. And Keselowski is tied for sixth in the points standings entering the second round.
Odds of advancing: 80 percent
7. Joey Logano: 3,029
The same sentiment goes for Logano. The defending champ has a better than decent shot to make it to Homestead and race for back-to-back titles. But he’s also riding a little bit on the laurels of a strong first half of 2019. Logano has just two top-five finishes in the last 14 races. Getting top 12s is a perfectly fine way to advance through the first and second rounds. But they may not work in the third round.
Odds of advancing: 70 percent
8. Kyle Larson: 3,006
Here’s where things get tricky. It sure feels like there are seven drivers with better than even odds to make the third round. That would then leave five drivers to fight for one spot. Is Larson the best of that group? He’s shown speed at both Dover and Kansas; he finished third and eighth at those tracks in the spring. Can he avoid flipping at Talladega and putting himself in a points hole heading into Kansas?
Odds of advancing: 50 percent
9. Ryan Blaney: 3,004
Blaney simply hasn’t been as fast as his Penske teammates Logano and Keselowski. If Penske was the fastest team in the Cup Series, then that’s not a big deal. But given that Penske is behind three JGR cars at this point and there’s a really fast Stewart-Haas Racing car, Blaney is in an unenviable position. Maybe a strong run and a win at Talladega makes things better.
Odds of advancing: 50 percent
10. Alex Bowman: 3,005
Bowman’s comeback to finish second at the Roval was nearly as impressive as Elliott’s comeback for the win. And while Elliott has wins at all three second-round tracks in the last calendar year, Bowman has second-place finishes at all three second-round tracks this season. If he replicates that performance he’s advancing to the third round with ease.
Odds of advancing: 45 percent
11. William Byron: 3,001
Byron is just five points outside the last spot as the second round opens. Can he get the stage points to make the race for the final spot a good one? Byron has been fast at intermediate tracks lately. He should have a shot if he’s within striking distance at Kansas.
Odds of advancing: 40 percent
12. Clint Bowyer: 3,000
Remember Dover a year ago? Bowyer started fifth and had a loose wheel late in the race. He eventually crashed and finished 35th. If that scenario plays out again on Sunday then maybe SHR will react differently this time.
Odds of advancing: 35 percent
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Nick Bromberg is a writer for Yahoo Sports.
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