Will MetroWest see another mild flu season? Cases are up from 2020

Flu season can be as tricky to predict as New England weather or the Red Sox postseason schedule. But after an unusually mild flu season last year, health experts have warned that the virus could return in a big way.

Flu hasn’t made its big comeback yet, though, according to Hopkinton Health Director Shaun McAuliffe.

“Typically, we see I want to say about 16 to 30 (flu) cases a year, and right now we're at two,” McAuliffe said. “I mean, I expected to be in a very different place with respect to flu, and that’s what we had been advised to prepare for.”

There was a cold that went through the community earlier in the season, and the respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) made the rounds in late September and early October, according to McAuliffe. Generally, though, the area has seen less respiratory illness than usual.

“The interesting thing is with COVID, people have been implementing effective strategies that are protective against COVID, flu and other respiratory illnesses,” he said. “So we aren't seeing as much flu as typically.”

Ashland hasn’t had much flu activity, either, according to police Sgt. Ed Burman, the town’s COVID-19 point man.

“We have not been seeing much flu at all,” he said, adding the town is mostly just seeing an uptick in COVID-19 cases.

More flu than last year

Flu is gradually returning, according to Dr. George Abraham, chief of medicine at St. Vincent Hospital in Worcester.

“Although flu cases are not fully back to pre-COVID levels, they are higher than last year,” he said. “Masking, handwashing and distancing is helping control numbers, and will continue to do so as long as people continue these practices.”

However, 2020 saw more masking and remote schooling, and less travel, Dr. Michael Connors, physician director of Urgent Care at Milford Regional Physician Group pointed out.

“We expect to have a real and significant flu season this year, as most of those conditions no longer exist,” he said. “We are already seeing a moderate number of sporadic positive flu tests come through our urgent care locations.”

The Massachusetts Department of Public Health began releasing weekly flu reports in mid-October, and reports have so far shown generally low flu severity statewide, though cases have seen an uptick throughout November.

Friday's weekly report showed low flu activity in most of the state with the exception of Boston, which had minimal activity.

The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention uses trends from previous years to create a baseline that indicates whether a state’s flu activity is higher or lower than normal, according to the DPH. As of Friday, the most recent report available, Massachusetts had met that baseline.

The typical flu peak isn’t until late January and February, according to Connors.

What would a heavier flu season mean for MetroWest?

If there is an uptick in flu cases this winter, there could be consequences for a health care system already struggling with bed and staffing shortages amid COVID-19.

“It will certainly overwhelm our already overburdened health care system,” said Dr. Vibha Sharma, chief of infectious disease at UMass Memorial Health-Marlborough Hospital.

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A heavier flu season could place further constraints on hospital personnel, beds and other resources, according to Abraham.

“It also will likely cause increased hospitalizations, which usually occurs with flu season, as well as increased provider and staff stress and potential for burn out,” Connors said.

What you can do

As more people get out of the house and travel, flu numbers will increase, according to Abraham.

“The flu vaccine can help reduce additional illness and complications,” he said.

Those looking to get a COVID-19 vaccine or booster can also get their flu shot at the same time, per the CDC.

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“It is clear that there is little to no risk in getting both COVID vaccine/booster and flu vaccine at the same time,” Connors said. “We encourage patients to do both when available, as decreased flu vaccinations leads to increased risk for serious illness and hospitalization.”

Massachusetts’ end-of-season flu vaccination coverage, or percentage of the population vaccinated, has trended up over the past few years and reached a 10-year high of approximately 66.5% last year, according to the CDC.

Hopkinton ran clinics starting at the end of the summer and running through the beginning of fall. According to state data, the town provided flu shots to 108 individuals, though McAuliffe believes the actual number is likely higher.

“Flu in Hopkinton is typically our second greatest cause of illness or communicable disease in a non-COVID year, so it's something that we actively try to manage through education (and) providing vaccination,” McAuliffe said.

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The Health Department has worked to lower barriers for community members by offering flexible vaccination times and locations.

Vaccination, he said, is “the best thing that we can do.”

Abby Patkin is a multimedia journalist for the Daily News. Follow Abby on Twitter @AMPatkin. She can be reached at apatkin@wickedlocal.com.

This article originally appeared on MetroWest Daily News: Flu season in MetroWest: Experts say cases are up, flu shots crucial