Mad Bets: NFL Week 10 Prop Bets
Minty Bets, Jared Quay & Matt Harmon debate a few prop bets for Week 10 of the 2020 NFL season.
Video Transcript
MINTY BETS: Welcome to Mad Bets, everyone. It's week 10 of the NFL, and it's time for our weekly fantasy props segment. I'm here with Jared Quay, as always, and Yahoo Fantasy analyst Matt Harmon. Guys, let's get started. Fantasy prop number one is going to be, who will have more total touchdowns, Tua Tagovailoa or Justin Herbert? Harmon, let's start with you.
MATT HARMON: I feel like Justin Herbert's at the point where I'm almost ready to say that I didn't work this hard to get this job to come on this show and talk bad about Justin Herbert. I mean, that is how well he's played this year. He's been unbelievable. He's definitely my pick in this spot.
I think Miami on balance has the better pass defense. Like, I think they're a top 10 unit in the NFL right now. So I understand the hesitancy there from Herbert's side of it. But I don't know that the Chargers are that much worse on defense than I'd really, like, make that big of an adjustment for Tua there from a match-up perspective.
So at this one, I think Herbert's just much more comfortable. I think he's been much more aggressive in terms of throwing the ball downfield into tight windows and nailing those throws. I mean, come on, those two end zone fades to end that game, like, those were perfectly placed balls. Donald Parham, XFL superstar, give that a little bit better of a squeeze.
And we're talking about Herbert as a late game magician in that spot. He's definitely my pick here.
MINTY BETS: Absolutely, I totally agree with you. He's consistently put up at least two or more passing touchdowns per game. I think he has a better game than Tua here. Jared, what do you think?
JARED QUAY: I'm going Tua. And I'm going Tua [INAUDIBLE] because the Miami defense is a nightmare. They're playing the best ball they've ever seen. They're scoring touchdowns as much as the offense is. I think Tua is going to have a good enough game. He's going to be able to play with the lead, I personally believe, which opens up to be able to play action. And it's going to help Tua.
Justin Herbert's probably going to win Rookie of the Year, I think he's that good, over Joe Burrow. But I still think this game, you give me Tua, and I just want to go the opposite of Harmon just so I can have a clear winner.
MATT HARMON: Sure.
MINTY BETS: Yeah, I get it. All right, fantasy prop number two. Who will have more total yards, Kyler Murray or Josh Allen? Jared, I'd love to hear what you think about this one.
JARED QUAY: I'm a Josh Allen stan, all right? Kyler Murray's a good quarterback, but I think Josh Allen or Russell Wilson is going to win MVP. I know that at the beginning of the year me and Harmon actually went off on who will be the best fantasy prospect at a quarterback, and I picked Kyler Murray, he picked Josh Allen. He was right.
Josh Allen is amazing, the deep ball is amazing, he can still run. I like total yards, Josh Allen.
MINTY BETS: Dang. OK, Matt, are you going with Josh as well?
MATT HARMON: Hey, man, don't give yourself too much flack. Murray has been unbelievable. Like, these scrambling plays that he has are, like, actually part of their passing game. Not to mention that the Bills' biggest problem this year has been their rush defense. And Kyler Murray is basically their running game in Arizona too.
Like, I think the biggest problem that the Bills are going to have is being able to stop Kyler Murray from a pure rushing perspective. I mean, this guy, we saw it last week, can put up 100 yards all on his own.
MINTY BETS: Nice. All right, well, we can never really be unanimous. I like Kyler in this spot as well. I think it's an advantage for him to stay home for the second week in a row and bounce back. I think Kyler has the better offense to work with, and so I got to go with Kyler Murray with the most total yards here over Josh Allen.
And fantasy prop number three. Who gets more rushing yards, Lamar Jackson, and let's favor him by 20 more rushing yards, or Cam Newton? Matt, what do you think?
MATT HARMON: I never like it when the producers make me have to pull out, like, the old-time calculator here, like, with a little bit of a math equation on this one. But I'm still, despite the minus 20, I'm still going with Lamar in this spot. Let's also talk about Cam Newton for a second. He's starting to look better as a passer.
I think from a pass angle, they might start to rely less on Newton as a pure rusher. Also, he's more of a goal line threat than just a pure big yardage threat this year as a rusher. And Lamar especially, I like him going against this Patriots defense that's been compromised all year, that's been really struggling. I like Lamar's match up against this front seven, just from a pure athleticism perspective, to take him here, even with the minus 20 spot.
MINTY BETS: Wow, OK. Jared, what do you think? I think you're going to go with Lamar here.
JARED QUAY: Yeah, I think 20 yards is not nearly enough of a cushion here. I think 40 yards, I think he might beat him about 40. Let's think about this. One team has all of its star players opting out, missing, and the other team is the best rushing team in the NFL. Lamar Jackson is going to run at so much speed that they may have to, like, RG3 might come in at the end of this game.
This is a-- it's personal for me, all right? I never liked the Patriots, Bill Belichick's been cheating for years, he's having a down year. Ravens have my brother on this team. I wouldn't be surprised if Lamar Jackson [INAUDIBLE] rush for almost 150 yards.
MINTY BETS: Jeez, OK. Well, I don't like the Patriots either, but I think Cam Newton can keep it pretty close. I think 20 more rushing yards for Lamar Jackson might be a little too much. I think we're going to see that Ravens defense pressure Cam Newton to scramble out of the pocket, so I like Cam Newton in the spot here.
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