Mad Bets: Line Movement to watch in Week 11
Matt Gothard & Jared Quay talk about the games with the most significant line movement in Week 11 of the 2020 NFL season.
Video Transcript
MATT GOTHARD: Welcome back to "Mad Bets," everybody. I'm here with Jared Quay, and we are going to talk through some weak 11 line movement in the NFL. We got three games to break down, and I want to hear what Jared thinks about the movement.
So Jared, first game on the list here we got Houston versus New England. Houston opened up as 3 point favorites. Now, the Pats are minus 2. 76% of the money is on the Patriots, so that's obviously impacting this line. What are your thoughts on this? Would you take Houston plus 2, or what are you thinking?
JARED QUAY: I think this is just there's a lot more Patriot fans that people saw last week that are overreacting the fact the Patriots beat the Ravens and the Texans have a bad defense pretty much. But I still think the Texans are a quality team here. I wouldn't change my bet if you thought that the Texans were going to win it minus 3. Obviously, you'll believe they'll win this one with the points.
But if you genuinely thought the Patriots are going to win, you were going to take a moneyline anyways what it minus 3. So I don't think this line changes any one of my perspectives. But I can see Patriots fans inflating this line. So I would stick with the Texans if you have them.
MATT GOTHARD: I'm glad that I have Patriots as my best bet of the week. Not really. All right, next up, we're going to look at the Green Bay Packers at Indianapolis Colts. This one opened up as Green Bay minus 2 and 1/2, and now the Colts are minus 1 and 1/2. But here's the interesting thing. 78% of the money's on Green Bay.
So with that amount of money on Green Bay, it's interesting that it's moved from minus 2 and 1/2 now, plus 1 and 1/2. Is this the fishiest line of the week?
JARED QUAY: Yeah, Vegas knows something, man. They know something, and we need to be worried about it, all right? Any time everybody's betting one way and Vegas is like, we'll take that. How about more? Bet more, bet more.
And I go, you know what? Maybe Philip Rivers is feeling good, and he's young Philip Rivers. Personally, Green Bay is a huge favorite, so I would bet against the public here.
MATT GOTHARD: All right, that's-- that's probably a good one to pump the brakes if you're really feeling the Packers. Speaking of pump the brakes, 88% of the money this week is on the Jets. And that's taking them from 10 and 1/2 point underdogs against the Chargers all the way down to 8 and 1/2 point underdogs. This can't just be because Justin Herbert has a horrible haircut, right?
JARED QUAY: It's got to be. I mean, I'm ain't going to lie to you. It's hard to bet on a guy who went from being like one direction cool to really just, you know, is that a military cut he has?
MATT GOTHARD: Realistically speaking though, I'm not sure if 8 and 1/2 is enough for the Jets. The Jets just don't look like a competitive team. I think probably this line movement is going a little bit too much in that direction. Would you agree?
JARED QUAY: I disagree. I think the Jets gave a very competitive game to the Patriots two weeks ago when they came off a bye, and now this is it. If you're going to win a game, this is the game that's still won. You got a West Coast team coming to the East Coast, and they've been struggling with losses and, you know, the blown game. So if you're over a touchdown, dawg, I could see why people are betting Jets.
MATT GOTHARD: All right, Quay. Well, good luck this weekend. Hopefully you win at least one of your bets.
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