It’s not unusual for stocks to exhibit an apparent disconnect between share price and real-world performance, especially since 2021’s rise of the meme stock. While this appears a relatively new trend, you could argue Tesla - for all its increasing real-world success - is the original meme stock. King meme or not, Tesla’s status as the world’s most successful EV company is currently not up for discussion.
However, Tesla needs to watch out. Lucid Group (LCID) is currently staking a claim to give it a run for its money on both the EV front and as a favorite amongst retailers. Not to mention, it is claiming a spot in the overheated valuation slot following last week’s huge share haul. But let’s first see why this new EV player is making waves.
Lucid went public via the SPAC route at the end of July, and the company’s CEO is Peter Rawlinson, a former chief engineer at Tesla. Lucid caters to the luxury EV market and last week confirmed that the first customer delivery of the Lucid Air Dream Edition would take place on Saturday, October 30th. This amounts to an “important milestone,” said Morgan Stanley’s Adam Jonas.
Investors certainly agreed. Shares soared ~30% on the back of a huge spike in trading volume and the session closed with Lucid boasting a market cap around $62 billion, almost 90% of Ford's market cap.
Jonas has an idea where all that exuberant volume came from.
“Our trading contacts believe that the trading volume is dominated by retail rather than institutional and is more outright share buying skewed rather than option skewed,” the 5-star analyst said.
Jonas sent an email to clients to get their thoughts on what was behind the “strong price action.” Apart from the good news re the first deliveries, responses included the potential to grow faster than Tesla to “nice looking car,” to the actual deliveries confirming the company is more than just “vaporware.” Tellingly, one reply was: “If you really think that TSLA is worth $1trn then LCID can be worth $65bn.”
Jonas disagrees. The analyst thinks shares are significantly overvalued at current levels and rates LCID as Underweight (i.e. Sell), backed by a $12 price target. This figure suggests shares will lose a huge 67% of their value over the next 12 months. (To watch Jonas’ track record, click here)
Currently 2 other analysts are tracking LCID’s progress, and both rate the stock a Buy, giving it a Moderate Buy consensus rating. However, shares have flown past the $23.22 average target, which now suggests 36% downside in the year ahead. Interestingly, the disconnect between analyst sentiment and share price action is another similarity with Tesla, so it will be interesting to watch this story unfold over the coming months. (See Lucid stock analysis on TipRanks)
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Disclaimer: The opinions expressed in this article are solely those of the featured analyst. The content is intended to be used for informational purposes only. It is very important to do your own analysis before making any investment.