One thing we could say about the analysts on Great Portland Estates Plc (LON:GPE) - they aren't optimistic, having just made a major negative revision to their near-term (statutory) forecasts for the organization. This report focused on revenue estimates, and it looks as though the consensus view of the business has become substantially more conservative.

Following the downgrade, the consensus from nine analysts covering Great Portland Estates is for revenues of UK£82m in 2023, implying a chunky 12% decline in sales compared to the last 12 months. Before the latest update, the analysts were foreseeing UK£94m of revenue in 2023. The consensus view seems to have become more pessimistic on Great Portland Estates, noting the measurable cut to revenue estimates in this update.

View our latest analysis for Great Portland Estates

We'd point out that there was no major changes to their price target of UK£5.62, suggesting the latest estimates were not enough to shift their view on the value of the business. It could also be instructive to look at the range of analyst estimates, to evaluate how different the outlier opinions are from the mean. Currently, the most bullish analyst values Great Portland Estates at UK£7.06 per share, while the most bearish prices it at UK£4.60. These price targets show that analysts do have some differing views on the business, but the estimates do not vary enough to suggest to us that some are betting on wild success or utter failure.

Of course, another way to look at these forecasts is to place them into context against the industry itself. One thing that stands out from these estimates is that revenues are expected to keep falling until the end of 2023, roughly in line with the historical decline of 27% per annum over the past five years. Compare this against analyst estimates for companies in the broader industry, which suggest that revenues (in aggregate) are expected to grow 5.7% annually. So it's pretty clear that, while it does have declining revenues, the analysts also expect Great Portland Estates to suffer worse than the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that analysts cut their revenue estimates for this year. They also expect company revenue to perform worse than the wider market. Given the stark change in sentiment, we'd understand if investors became more cautious on Great Portland Estates after today.

Not only have the analysts been downgrading the stock, but it looks like Great Portland Estates might find it hard to maintain its dividends, if these forecasts prove accurate. You can learn more, and discover the 1 possible risk we've identified, for free on our platform here.

Of course, seeing company management invest large sums of money in a stock can be just as useful as knowing whether analysts are downgrading their estimates. So you may also wish to search this free list of stocks that insiders are buying.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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