Ira Winderman: Victor Oladipo holds Heat swing vote this season
For all the swing votes regarding where the Miami Heat do or do not stand six weeks shy of training camp, there is one in particular that could both sway and shape 2022-23 for Erik Spoelstra’s team.
No, not Kyle Lowry. For all the concern of conditioning and age, Lowry, when he was on the court last season, was exactly the type of engine the Heat had lacked in recent seasons.
No, not Bam Adebayo. For all the conjecture about the lack of offensive explosiveness, only thumb surgery kept him from an All-Star berth and possible All-NBA nod.
And, no, not Tyler Herro. Fact is, he struggled only when injured in the playoffs. Let’s not minimize a season that had him as winner of the NBA Sixth Man Award and just seventh-tenths of a point behind Jimmy Butler for the Heat’s regular-season scoring lead.
Enter Victor Oladipo.
Who has made a point of being anywhere and everywhere this offseason.
At a time several teammates have moved out of the offseason spotlight, the former All-Star guard has been ubiquitous. There was a conference call with South Florida media in the wake of signing his two-year, $18 million free-agency contract. Then he was alongside Adebayo at a team media session at Rolling Loud. From there, time on Vince Carter’s podcast – as well as a constant stream of workout video on just about every social-media platform.
The Revenge Tour, he terms it, is his way of insisting that he was an NBA star and will be again.
Which makes for a far different relationship with the Heat in his third season with the team.
The past two seasons, after he was acquired at the 2021 NBA trade deadline from the Houston Rockets, Oladipo and Spoelstra were in lockstep regarding where the 6-foot-4 guard stood. He was rehabbing after years of dealing with knee issues. He couldn’t be at his best, wasn’t at his best, shouldn’t have been expected to be at his best.
That was then.
Now there is a star hoping to be reborn, with expectations of playing time, opportunity and exposure.
That means something has to give.
The shots and scoring opportunities will be there, considering Lowry was practically reluctant to shoot in his first Heat season, Adebayo remains far more at ease as a facilitator, and Butler can’t be bothered with something as mundane as the NBA regular season.
But Oladipo, through actions and words, hardly sounds like someone content to operate as fourth wheel.
And that creates somewhat of a pickle with Herro, who is eligible for a max-scale extension until the start of the regular season. Make that level of investment and the expectations will remain close to what was produced during the 2021-22 regular season. But it also would be an expectation difficult to realize if utilized as an equal, or less, of Oladipo.
A pragmatist would point to the trade market ultimately serving as a way to address Heat hierarchy. By switching out to a two-year deal, Oladipo will be trade-eligible by midseason. But if Herro is extended, Herro essentially would become trade-ineligible for the season.
Considering the contributions Herro has provided dating to the Heat’s 2020 run to the NBA Finals and the opportunity to lock him up long term, it is easy to cast him, at 22, as the team’s priority.
But then consider what Oladipo offered in last season’s run to within one victory of the NBA Finals, the type of two-way play that Herro arguably may never achieve during a career built around streak scoring.
If Oladipo at 30 is as healthy as he is cocksure, there is no reason there can’t be another three or four quality seasons from the No. 2 pick in the 2013 NBA draft.
And two-way components are harder to find than singularly successful sixth men.
Victor Oladipo is about to create what Spoelstra often refers to as good problems, first-world problems, rich-people problems.
He already is being heard.
Next, he awaits to be seen.
