Grand Forks County's COVID-19 risk downgraded from 'high' to 'moderate'

Apr. 14—A novel coronavirus now presents a lesser risk to Grand Forks County residents, according to a tool put together by public health workers here.

The Grand Forks Health Officer's Dashboard indicates that the virus poses a "moderate" risk as of Wednesday, April 14. Last week, the gauge pushed beyond that level into the "high" risk category. Grand Forks Public Health staff used a variety of guidelines from federal and national public health authorities and county-level data points to put together the dashboard last summer.

It's heading downward mostly because, similar to Cass County, the number of new cases per capita in the county has headed downward, according to health department staff. The percentage of Grand Forks County COVID-19 tests that come back positive has also been in recent decline.

The number of coronavirus tests completed here per capita has stayed strong, according to data supplied to the local health department by the North Dakota Department of Health, and Altru Health System has reported no significant strain on its staffed COVID beds. Both of those metrics also keep the gauge relatively low.

Unlike North Dakota's "smart restart" matrix, Grand Forks' dashboard doesn't have any guidelines or restrictions attached to any level. It nonetheless gives an indication of the extent and pace of the virus' spread in and around Grand Forks, and it's been the basis for previous public health policy shifts: Dr. Joel Walz, the county's health officer, declared that he'd lift a countywide mask mandate last month if the dashboard stayed in the "low" risk level for 14 consecutive days. The gauge did, so Walz followed through with his plan.

But he and Michael Dulitz, Grand Forks Public Health's primary COVID-19 data analyst, both indicated then that neither had a similarly firm threshold for implementing a second mask mandate or other restrictions intended to reign in the virus, but that they might be forthcoming if the gauge went back into the "high" risk category for a substantial amount of time.

The gauge began indicating a "high" risk on Friday, April 9, but Walz, who noted it's dip on Wednesday, said he doesn't plan to put together a second mask mandate or anything else along those lines if the present status quo stays put, largely because nearby hospitals haven't been clogged with COVID patients and because more and more Grand Forks County residents have been vaccinated against the virus.

"I don't really feel like we're in a situation like we were before," Walz said. "We still have work to do, but we're holding our own."