Jul. 29—There are 11 games around the diamond for Thursday, so there's plenty of action on the MLB board. The day begins at 11:10 a.m. with a matchup between the Atlanta Braves and New York Mets followed by five other afternoon games.
Below you'll see a breakdown of the game, including a pick and a couple of shot props to consider. If you're looking for more bets this season, check out the FTN Bet Tracker at FTNBets.com. Make sure you check out FTN's free Parlay Calculator to get the best possible odds.
Colorado Rockies +238 (BetAmerica) at San Diego Padres -278 (BetAmerica) — 8.5
The Rockies continue their 10-game road trip with a stop in San Diego for the start of a four-game series against the Padres. They are massive underdogs, as they enter Wednesday's action with a league-worst 11-37 record on the road. They'll give the ball to lefty Kyle Freeland (1-5, 4.85 ERA) and San Diego will counter with Joe Musgrove (6-7, 3.13 ERA).
Freeland may have an ERA that's pushing five, but he's allowed three runs or fewer in six straight starts and eight total over that span (35 IP). One of those outings came in San Diego on July 9, where he only surrendered three runs on six hits over five innings. By no means will this be an easy start for Freeland, but the Padres rank inside the top 10 in average and wOBA against right-handed pitchers, and outside the top 15 in both marks against lefties.
I'm not suggesting taking the Rockies, but I'm also not suggesting taking the Padres as -287 either. It's either take the value on the Rockies, the Padres on the run line or get involved with the total. I think we can take a shot on the under because Musgrove checks in with a 2.83 ERA in 57.1 home innings. He only allowed one earned run in a start against the Rockies on July 10 and he tossed seven scoreless innings at home against the Rockies back on May 19.
The under 8.5 seems like a solid play when you account for Freeland's recent form, Musgrove's success at home and against the Rockies at home, as well as Colorado's poor showing away from Coors Field. Heading into Wednesday, the Rockies ranked last in average (.209), runs (146), home runs (34), wOBA (.267), wRC+ (64), ISO (.111) and OPS (.602) on the road. This after putting up a 12 spot on Tuesday in Los Angeles against the Angels.
Prediction: 4-1 San Diego
Best Bet: UNDER 8.5
Props: Joe Musgrove O 6.5 K
Other picks to consider: Oakland & U 8.5; MIL -1.5; CHW -1.5
If you're looking for more betting coverage be sure to check out FTNBets.com.