By Jeff Hicks, 4for4
Special to Yahoo Sports
Schedule-adjusted fantasy points allowed, or aFPA, is 4for4’s answer to biased statistics. By removing bias, we can level the playing field and compare matchups in an "apples-to-apples" manner. As the season marches on, the data will change and now that we are past Week 12, the numbers shown will be based on a rolling 10-week data set.
Each week until the end of the fantasy football season I will be looking at five matchups to target or avoid based on updated aFPA data.
Week 13 matchups to target
Taysom Hill @ New York Jets (Yahoo DFS salary $28)
You may have heard that Taysom Hill finished as a QB1 Week 13 despite throwing four (for4) interceptions. He gets the 30th-ranked defense against quarterbacks Week 14 in a road matchup against the Jets. There is concern with Hill because he will be playing with a "mallet finger," the same injury plaguing Russell Wilson but not nearly as severe for Hill. It could be a YAC week for Hill’s passing yards, especially if Alvin Kamara returns. The Saints' offense is in a good matchup in Week 14, but Hill’s rushing upside makes him especially tantalizing.
Rex Burkhead vs. Seattle Seahawks (Yahoo DFS salary $17)
Burkhead has survived the revolving door in the Texans backfield and is rewarded with a matchup against the 31st-ranked rush defense according to aFPA. David Johnson (illness) should be back in Week 14, but he has been outplayed by Burkhead the past few games where they were both active and saw a lot of work despite a blowout loss in Week 13. Jonathan Taylor, Myles Gaskin, Miles Sanders, Damien Harris, and Rhamondre Stevenson are on bye Week 14, making Burkhead almost a necessary evil.
Gerald Everett @ Houston Texans (Yahoo DFS salary $13)
Can Everett make up for being Jen Eakins’ Week 13 Festivus? Credit where credit is due, Everett did have four catches against San Francisco, but only seven yards. Houston is 25th in aFPA against opposing tight ends and even made Anthony Firkser fantasy-relevant as recent as Week 11. The Texans allow an average of five receptions, 54.42 yards, and 0.5 touchdowns per game. Prior to Week 13, Everett had at least three receptions and 37 yards in three games since Seattle’s bye.
Week 13 matchups to avoid
Justin Fields @ Green Bay Packers (Yahoo DFS salary $24)
Hard pass on Justin Fields in his return from cracked ribs. Green Bay is coming off a bye and gets a home game on national television. The Packers allow the fourth-fewest schedule-adjusted points to opposing signal-callers and could be getting back key defensive players. Green Bay opened as 12.5-point favorites.
Hunter Renfrow @ Kansas City Chiefs (Yahoo DFS salary $18)
Nothing but love for Hunter Renfrow as he has broken out in 2021, but his Week 14 matchup makes him tough to trust as a ceiling play. The Chiefs rank fourth in wide receiver aFPA and held Renfrow to his second-lowest yardage output since Vegas’ Week 7 bye in their Week 10 matchup in Sin City. Kansas City’s secondary has performed a 180 and is playing elite defense after a brutal start to 2021. Renfrow salvaged his Week 10 with a touchdown and will have to find paydirt again to have a successful game and keep the Raiders’ playoff hopes alive.
Jeff has played fantasy sports since 2001. He has covered fantasy and traditional sports at the pro, semi-pro, and amateur level for the better part of a decade. Born in Illinois and currently living where James Robinson made a name for himself in college, Jeff enjoys running (establish it), followed by doing absolutely nothing.
More from 4for4.com: The Rookie Report: Week 13