Fantasy Usage Model Notes: Week 12 Recap

Hayden Winks
·17 min read



“The Fantasy Usage Model” simply is how many PPR fantasy points an average NFL player in an average NFL offense would’ve scored with the same exact opportunity. Read Targets Aren’t Created Equal and Carries Aren’t Created Equal if you want to see the type of variables that go into this model, but think air yards, relation to the sideline, yards from the end zone, and scheme indicator metrics. It’s a “Buy Low Model” (shoutout to the great Josh Hermsmeyer). To make things better, I manually clean the data each week with things I can adjust for that a computer wouldn’t know about (i.e. removing early-injury games) because the data is only as good as the context that comes with it. If you have questions, reach out to me on Twitter (@HaydenWinks).

Top 5 Rebound Candidates of Week 13

1. Michael Pittman (vs. HOU)

2. Aaron Jones (vs. PHI)

3. Sammy Watkins (vs. DEN)

4. Christian Kirk (vs. LAR)

5. Jordan Reed (vs. BUF)

Fantasy Usage Model - WRs

Average expected PPR points and PPR data from the last four weeks. I’ve removed injuries and noted other adjustments.

Player

Fantasy Usage

Actual PPR

Context

Tyreek Hill

WR1 (29.1)

WR1 (39.3)

His 3 best xFP games have been his last 3.

Chase Claypool

WR2 (19.3)

WR15 (17.0)

Doesn't include Week 12 (Wednesday).

Keenan Allen

WR3 (18.9)

WR4 (22.2)

20.4 xFPs with Herbert could dip with Ekeler.

Davante Adams

WR4 (18.8)

WR3 (23.9)

22.1 xFPs per game lead NFL this season.

Allen Robinson

WR5 (18.7)

WR12 (17.6)

More usage with Trubisky than Foles.

Mike Evans

WR6 (18.7)

WR18 (16.5)

18.7 xFPs in 4 games with AB. WR1/2.

Diontae Johnson

WR7 (18.6)

WR5 (20.3)

Doesn't include Week 12 (Wednesday).

Deebo Samuel

WR8 (17.7)

WR2 (24.4)

13.0 xFPs in 4 healthy games. Aiyuk back?

Robert Woods

WR9 (17.6)

WR10 (18.3)

No LT means more quick throws to Woods.

Jerry Jeudy

WR10 (17.2)

WR27 (14.3)

Removed Wk 12. 16.9 xFPs as an outside WR.

Stefon Diggs

WR11 (16.8)

WR8 (19.0)

At least 10.0 PPR points in all 11 games.

Calvin Ridley

WR12 (16.1)

WR21 (15.5)

At least 14.0 PPR points in all but 1 game.

DeVante Parker

WR13 (15.7)

WR30 (13.9)

xFPs: With Preston (10.3), without (17.4).

Adam Thielen

WR14 (15.6)

WR7 (19.5)

Red zone monster as volatile WR2.

Tee Higgins

WR15 (14.7)

WR22 (15.2)

10.3 xFPs in Wk 12 in suddenly bad offense.

Michael Thomas

WR16 (14.7)

WR52 (10.8)

9.6 PPR points per game in 5 healthy games.

Cooper Kupp

WR17 (14.4)

WR31 (13.9)

Rams' neutral pass rate up in November.

DK Metcalf

WR18 (14.4)

WR13 (17.5)

Had 206 air yards in Week 12.

Justin Jefferson

WR19 (14.2)

WR9 (18.6)

Season-high 25.9 xFPs without Thielen.

Curtis Samuel

WR20 (14.0)

WR20 (16.3)

13.0 xFPs in 6 games since injury. Moore?

JuJu Smith-Schuster

WR21 (13.9)

WR16 (16.6)

Doesn't include Week 12 (Wednesday).

Tim Patrick

WR22 (13.9)

WR34 (13.3)

Removed Wk 12. Deep threat on flex usage.

Anthony Miller

WR23 (13.7)

WR75 (7.2)

Trubisky locks onto A-Rob.

KJ Hamler

WR24 (13.7)

WR54 (10.5)

Removed Wk 12. Big-play threat from slot.

Robby Anderson

WR25 (13.5)

WR37 (13.2)

WR3 usage would bump up if Moore is out.

Terry McLaurin

WR26 (13.4)

WR11 (18.3)

Baller on WR2/3 usage. Offense is functional.

Denzel Mims

WR27 (13.2)

WR57 (10.3)

Underperforming WR3 usage. 2021 upside.

D.J. Moore

WR28 (13.1)

WR32 (13.8)

Volatile WR3 usage. Now banged up.

Marvin Jones

WR29 (13.1)

WR29 (14.2)

xFPs: With Golladay (7.2), without (13.2).

Jakobi Meyers

WR30 (13.0)

WR26 (14.5)

Every-down player on WR3/4 usage.

CeeDee Lamb

WR31 (13.0)

WR40 (12.9)

12.1 xFPs per game with Dalton. WR3.

Russell Gage

WR32 (12.8)

WR69 (7.4)

A non-starter caliber WR seeing WR5 usage.

Darnell Mooney

WR33 (12.5)

WR86 (6.0)

Trubisky locks onto A-Rob.

Tyler Boyd

WR34 (12.5)

WR53 (10.7)

8.9 xFPs in Wk 12 in suddenly bad offense.

D.J. Chark

WR35 (12.5)

WR23 (15.1)

Removed Week 12. Volatile WR3/4 usage.

Chris Godwin

WR36 (12.4)

WR25 (14.6)

Efficient as low-aDOT No. 2 receiver. WR3.

Josh Reynolds

WR37 (12.2)

WR51 (10.9)

37-of-37 routes but no LT hurts deep shots.

Sammy Watkins

WR38 (12.1)

WR67 (7.8)

43-of-59 routes in return. Upside flex.

Tyler Lockett

WR39 (11.9)

WR45 (11.7)

Statistically, most volatile usage in NFL.

DeAndre Hopkins

WR40 (11.8)

WR39 (13.1)

Stud but just 14.7 xFPs per game in 2020.

Michael Pittman

WR41 (11.8)

WR42 (12.3)

WR4 usage as full-time route runner.

Willie Snead

WR42 (11.5)

WR43 (12.1)

Doesn't include Week 12 (Wednesday).

Larry Fitzgerald

WR43 (11.5)

WR61 (9.0)

Doesn't include Week 12.

Michael Gallup

WR44 (11.5)

WR73 (7.2)

11.4 xFPs per game without Dak. Volatile.

Mike Williams

WR45 (11.3)

WR56 (10.4)

Mostly running clear-out routes. Upside flex.

Christian Kirk

WR46 (11.2)

WR49 (11.0)

Vertical threat on flex-level volume.

Antonio Brown

WR47 (11.2)

WR60 (9.2)

34-of-45 routes Wk 12. Volatile WR3/4 usage.

Jarvis Landry

WR48 (11.2)

WR41 (12.9)

11.6 & 22.9 xFPs in non-weather/Odell games.

Sterling Shepard

WR49 (11.2)

WR44 (12.1)

13.3 xFPs in 5 games since injury. Low ceiling.

Brandin Cooks

WR50 (11.1)

WR33 (13.3)

13.8 xFPs in 7 games without BOB. WR2.

Jalen Reagor

WR51 (11.0)

WR71 (7.3)

Not producing on 10.9 xFPs since returning.

A.J. Brown

WR52 (10.8)

WR24 (14.8)

Bankable outlier as upside WR2. Baller.

Julio Jones

WR53 (10.8)

WR19 (16.4)

Stud on 16.8 xFPs in 5 healthy games.

Amari Cooper

WR54 (10.7)

WR17 (16.6)

14.4 xFPs in 3 games with Dalton. WR2/3.

A.J. Green

WR55 (10.7)

WR100 (4.7)

Season-low 4.9 xFPs in Wk 12. Droppable.

Richie James

WR56 (10.6)

WR28 (14.3)

Led Niners in Week 12 routes. Aiyuk back?

Breshad Perriman

WR57 (10.6)

WR14 (17.5)

8.7 xFPs in 4 games with Mims. Off radar.

Will Fuller

WR58 (10.5)

WR6 (19.7)

Suspended for the rest of 2020 (PEDs).

Golden Tate

WR59 (10.5)

WR77 (7.0)

0 games above 12.0 PPR points.

Danny Amendola

WR60 (10.2)

WR59 (9.5)

xFPs: With Golladay (5.4), without (9.6).

Cole Beasley

WR61 (10.1)

WR38 (13.1)

xFPs: With Brown (10.5), without (11.5).

Chris Conley

WR62 (10.0)

WR68 (7.6)

6.9 xFPs with Shenault.

Nelson Agholor

WR63 (9.9)

WR46 (11.6)

Flex appeal in negative game scripts.

Demarcus Robinson

WR64 (9.9)

WR55 (10.5)

5.8 xFPs in 5 games with Watkins.

Damiere Byrd

WR65 (9.8)

WR48 (11.3)

No floor but Cam's only deep threat.

T.Y. Hilton

WR66 (9.4)

WR50 (10.9)

Underperforming WR5 usage with Pittman.

N'Keal Harry

WR67 (8.9)

WR105 (4.5)

Under 2.0 PPR in 3 of last 4 healthy games.

Allen Lazard

WR68 (8.8)

WR66 (8.1)

9.8 xFPs in 5 healthy games. Upside WR4/5.

Keelan Cole

WR69 (8.3)

WR72 (7.3)

Low-upside slot man in tanking offense.

Zach Pascal

WR70 (8.3)

WR70 (7.4)

Wk 12 routes: Pittman (46), T.Y. (41), ZP (39).

Jakeem Grant

WR71 (8.1)

WR74 (7.2)

Week 12 routes: Hollins (27), Grant (19).

Marquise Brown

WR72 (8.1)

WR114 (3.4)

Doesn't include Week 12 (Wednesday).

Corey Davis

WR73 (7.6)

WR58 (9.5)

Efficient but 10.8 xFPs in 6 games with AJB.

Randall Cobb

WR74 (7.6)

WR85 (6.1)

Removed Weeks 11-12. Keke is the new slot.

Gabriel Davis

WR75 (7.4)

WR47 (11.3)

xFPs: With Brown (4.4), without (9.1).

Dez Bryant

WR76 (7.1)

WR80 (6.8)

Doesn't include Week 12 (Wednesday).

Valdes-Scantling

WR77 (7.0)

WR36 (13.2)

0 targets despite 29-of-33 routes Week 12.

Laviska Shenault

WR78 (6.9)

WR81 (6.7)

Just remember the name for 2021.

David Moore

WR79 (6.9)

WR64 (8.2)

Big-play threat as distant No. 3 receiver.

Mohamed Sanu

WR80 (6.8)

WR35 (13.2)

6.8 xFPs in Week 12, mostly in garbage time.

Travis Fulgham

WR81 (6.6)

WR122 (2.4)

Same routes as Alshon in Week 12. Drop.

Hunter Renfrow

WR82 (6.4)

WR63 (8.3)

Low ceiling as slot in run-first offense.

Cordarrelle Patterson

WR83 (6.3)

WR95 (5.2)

9 snaps in Week 12 with Montgomery back.

Olamide Zaccheaus

WR84 (6.2)

WR65 (8.1)

Week 12 routes: Blake (24/45), Zaccheaus (9).

Rashard Higgins

WR85 (6.1)

WR82 (6.6)

Wk 12 routes: Higgins (21 of 33), Hodge (12).

Henry Ruggs

WR86 (6.1)

WR102 (4.6)

Looks fine on tape but not involved.

Tyron Johnson

WR87 (5.9)

WR62 (8.3)

Obviously not a thing.

Kendrick Bourne

WR88 (5.6)

WR83 (6.5)

Potentially benched when Aiyuk returns.

Marvin Hall

WR89 (5.5)

WR76 (7.0)

Just getting his cardio in on go routes.

Emmanuel Sanders

WR90 (5.4)

WR79 (6.8)

5.4 xFPs in 4 games since Thomas' return.

Greg Ward

WR91 (5.3)

WR101 (4.7)

Somehow led PHI WRs in snaps Week 12.

Jamison Crowder

WR92 (5.3)

WR84 (6.4)

Better with Sam but more competition now.

Mecole Hardman

WR93 (5.3)

WR96 (5.2)

6.1 xFPs in 5 games with Watkins.

Darius Slayton

WR94 (5.3)

WR93 (5.4)

7.1 xFPs in 5 games since Sterling's return.

KhaDarel Hodge

WR95 (5.2)

WR91 (5.5)

Obviously not a thing.

Andy Isabella

WR96 (5.0)

WR111 (3.6)

9.7 & 9.4 xFPs in games without Kirk or Fitz.

Jalen Guyton

WR97 (5.0)

WR109 (4.0)

Obviously not a thing.

DaeSean Hamilton

WR98 (4.8)

WR90 (5.5)

Obviously not a thing.

Collin Johnson

WR99 (4.6)

WR92 (5.4)

Balled out as Chark's direct backup.

Auden Tate

WR100 (4.5)

WR127 (2.0)

Obviously not a thing.

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Fantasy Usage Model - TEs

Average expected PPR points and PPR data from the last four weeks. I’ve removed injuries and noted other adjustments.

Player

Fantasy Usage

Actual PPR

Context

Travis Kelce

TE1 (16.8)

TE1 (22.9)

On pace for 2nd most TE PPR points all-time.

Hunter Henry

TE2 (14.4)

TE6 (12.2)

Steady TE1 usage all year.

Darren Waller

TE3 (13.5)

TE7 (12.0)

Bad efficiency on strong TE1 usage.

Dallas Goedert

TE4 (12.7)

TE2 (15.5)

Season-high 18.3 xFPs in Wk 12. Upside TE1.

Mark Andrews

TE5 (12.2)

TE3 (13.0)

Doesn't include Week 12 (Wednesday).

Evan Engram

TE6 (11.9)

TE4 (12.7)

Iffy on TE1 usage, now possibly no Jones.

T.J. Hockenson

TE7 (11.3)

TE8 (10.7)

Steady TE1 numbers on steady TE1 usage.

Eric Ebron

TE8 (11.0)

TE10 (10.2)

Doesn't include Week 12 (Wednesday).

Dalton Schultz

TE9 (10.9)

TE12 (9.6)

Steady high-end TE2 usage as full-time TE.

Hayden Hurst

TE10 (10.1)

TE20 (7.3)

10.2 xFPs in games without Julio or Ridley.

Logan Thomas

TE11 (10.0)

TE18 (7.9)

Awful efficiency but TE1/2 usage. TE2 only.

Rob Gronkowski

TE12 (9.9)

TE14 (8.9)

Maintaining low-end TE1 usage with AB.

Trey Burton

TE13 (8.9)

TE19 (7.7)

Steady TE2 usage despite limited routes.

Jonnu Smith

TE14 (8.6)

TE16 (8.2)

No targets on 16-of-27 Wk 12 routes. Volatile.

Kyle Rudolph

TE15 (8.5)

TE13 (9.2)

xFPs: With Irv (4.2), without (11.3).

Noah Fant

TE16 (8.3)

TE21 (7.3)

Removed Wk 12. Playing through ankle.

Jimmy Graham

TE17 (8.3)

TE17 (7.9)

Week 12 routes: Graham (18), Cole Kmet (36).

Tyler Eifert

TE18 (8.2)

TE22 (7.0)

2 games over 10.0 PPR points.

Mike Gesicki

TE19 (7.8)

TE15 (8.3)

9.3 xFPs in games with Fitzpatrick.

Richard Rodgers

TE20 (7.3)

TE5 (12.4)

TE2 in the "Goedert" role. Lucky TDs.

Jordan Reed

TE21 (7.3)

TE26 (5.4)

25-of-38 routes as emerging TE1/2 option.

Jacob Hollister

TE22 (7.2)

TE33 (4.8)

The only SEA TE targeted in Week 12.

Anthony Firkser

TE23 (6.9)

TE45 (3.4)

Running routes but off the radar.

Irv Smith

TE24 (6.8)

TE11 (9.7)

Removed Weeks 10 & 12.

Jordan Akins

TE25 (6.5)

TE34 (4.8)

Wk 12 routes: Akins (19), Brown (11), Fells (7).

Robert Tonyan

TE26 (6.1)

TE9 (10.2)

TD threat in great offense on TE2/3 usage.

Tyler Higbee

TE27 (5.8)

TE25 (5.5)

Week 12 routes: Higbee (18), Everett (19).

Gerald Everett

TE28 (5.7)

TE28 (5.0)

Week 12 routes: Higbee (18), Everett (19).

Austin Hooper

TE29 (5.5)

TE24 (5.9)

Wk 12 routes: Hooper (18 of 33), Bryant (17).

Drew Sample

TE30 (5.3)

TE30 (4.9)

Obviously not a thing.

Fantasy Usage Model - RBs

Average expected PPR points and PPR data from the last four weeks. I’ve removed injuries and noted other adjustments.

Player

Fantasy Usage

Actual PPR

Context

Austin Ekeler

RB1 (36.6)

RB1 (23.9)

Led Week 12 in expected PPR points. RB1.

Dalvin Cook

RB2 (21.2)

RB2 (23.4)

Poor game script + ankle = rare dud week.

Kenyan Drake

RB3 (20.5)

RB8 (17.4)

Season-high 30.3 xFPs on 7 inside-10 opps.

Wayne Gallman

RB4 (20.1)

RB9 (17.3)

Averaging 16.9 xFPs in 5 starts. RB2.

Salvon Ahmed

RB5 (18.3)

RB14 (14.2)

18.6 & 18.1 xFPs in 2 starts. Gaskin back?

James Robinson

RB6 (18.2)

RB10 (16.9)

A stud on 16.9 xFPs per game this year. RB1.

Antonio Gibson

RB7 (18.1)

RB3 (22.8)

Season-high 26.7 xFPs, 7 targets Week 12.

J.D. McKissic

RB8 (16.8)

RB20 (12.4)

Week 12 routes: Gibson (19), McKissic (12).

David Montgomery

RB9 (16.5)

RB12 (16.3)

The worst 13.6 PPR points per game. RB2.

Derrick Henry

RB10 (16.4)

RB4 (19.4)

372-carry pace has been done once since '07.

D'Andre Swift

RB11 (16.0)

RB5 (19.3)

15.7 xFPs in 5 games since bye. RB1/2.

Mike Davis

RB12 (15.7)

RB28 (11.0)

Averaged 15.7 PPR points in non-CMC starts.

Alvin Kamara

RB13 (15.5)

RB11 (16.9)

Usage cut in half with Taysom. RB2 for now.

Josh Jacobs

RB14 (15.2)

RB6 (18.9)

Removed Week 12. Needs positive scripts.

Nyheim Hines

RB15 (15.2)

RB13 (14.5)

Passing-down back with hot hand upside.

Todd Gurley

RB16 (14.9)

RB17 (13.5)

Removed Weeks 11-12.

Carlos Hyde

RB17 (14.8)

RB26 (11.2)

Was the 1A in Wk 12 with Carson easing in.

Kareem Hunt

RB18 (14.5)

RB31 (10.5)

The 1B on early downs. The 1A if trailing.

Aaron Jones

RB19 (14.2)

RB16 (13.6)

xFPs: With Adams (16.4), without (24.0).

Ezekiel Elliott

RB20 (14.0)

RB27 (11.1)

Usage, particularly as a receiver, cut in half.

Giovani Bernard

RB21 (13.5)

RB41 (8.4)

8.1 xFPs in Wk 12 because offense is awful.

Frank Gore

RB22 (13.4)

RB24 (11.5)

Bad on RB2 usage without Perine. Iffy Flex.

Jerick McKinnon

RB23 (13.1)

RB40 (8.8)

8.4 xFPs with Mostert. Pass-downs only.

Duke Johnson

RB24 (12.9)

RB23 (11.6)

12.9 xFPs in 4 starts. Lost goal line to Prosise.

Jonathan Taylor

RB25 (12.7)

RB29 (10.8)

Had best game since Week 2 before COVID.

Nick Chubb

RB26 (12.6)

RB7 (18.8)

20-of-22 touches on early downs Week 12.

Chase Edmonds

RB27 (12.4)

RB25 (11.4)

10.4 xFPs in 9 games with Drake healthy.

Miles Sanders

RB28 (12.1)

RB38 (8.9)

Bad offense & no longer a bellcow. RB2.

Raheem Mostert

RB29 (11.3)

RB21 (12.3)

Total baller on 12.8 xFPs in healthy games.

Ronald Jones

RB30 (11.1)

RB18 (12.8)

Big-play threat on RB2/3 usage. Volatile.

Clyde Edwards-Helaire

RB31 (10.9)

RB19 (12.7)

11.4 xFPs in 5 games with Bell. Volatile RB2/3.

Leonard Fournette

RB32 (10.5)

RB48 (7.4)

Dropping passes, looks slow on RB3 usage.

Damien Harris

RB33 (10.5)

RB36 (9.1)

0-of-3 on inside-10 opps. Early downs only.

James Conner

RB34 (10.3)

RB45 (7.9)

Doesn't include Week 12 (Wednesday).

J.K. Dobbins

RB35 (10.2)

RB42 (8.1)

Season-high 13.7 xFPs before COVID-19 list.

Adrian Peterson

RB36 (9.7)

RB47 (7.7)

Only 7 snaps in the last game with Swift.

Jamaal Williams

RB37 (9.4)

RB32 (10.1)

9.4 xFPs in healthy games with Jones.

Chris Carson

RB38 (9.3)

RB15 (13.9)

Eased in & only played early downs Wk 12.

Latavius Murray

RB39 (9.3)

RB22 (12.0)

xFPs: With Brees (8.8), without (12.1).

Devin Singletary

RB40 (9.2)

RB50 (7.2)

Under 10.0 xFPs in 6 of last 7 games.

Melvin Gordon

RB41 (9.0)

RB34 (9.6)

Removed Wk 12. 16.4 xFPs without Lindsay.

Gus Edwards

RB42 (8.9)

RB51 (6.8)

Doesn't include Week 12 (Wednesday).

James White

RB43 (8.3)

RB35 (9.6)

Converted both inside-10 opps into TDs.

Joshua Kelley

RB44 (7.9)

RB54 (6.2)

3-of-5 opportunities came inside-the-10.

Tyler Ervin

RB45 (7.7)

RB53 (6.3)

Obviously not a thing.

Cam Akers

RB46 (7.6)

RB37 (9.0)

Wk 12 snaps: MB (25), DH (20), Akers (17).

Zack Moss

RB47 (7.6)

RB43 (8.1)

Under 9.0 xFPs in 5 of last 6 games.

Darrell Henderson

RB48 (7.5)

RB61 (5.1)

7.5 xFPs in 3 games since bye/injury.

Jordan Wilkins

RB49 (7.3)

RB60 (5.5)

Under 10.0 xFPs in all but 1 game.

Travis Homer

RB50 (7.1)

RB44 (8.0)

Obviously not a thing.

Kerryon Johnson

RB51 (7.0)

RB49 (7.4)

Only 9 snaps in the last game with Swift.

Ito Smith

RB52 (7.0)

RB57 (6.0)

11-of-17 Week 12 touches from garbage time.

Devontae Booker

RB53 (6.7)

RB33 (9.6)

Jacobs' backup if ankle is an issue.

DeAndre Washington

RB54 (6.6)

RB75 (2.7)

Early-down grinder if Gaskin misses.

Boston Scott

RB55 (6.6)

RB30 (10.7)

Passing down back in bad offense.

Phillip Lindsay

RB56 (6.2)

RB67 (3.6)

Removed Wk 12. Needs MRI.

Ty Johnson

RB57 (6.2)

RB68 (3.6)

Obviously not a thing.

Jonathan Williams

RB58 (5.7)

RB52 (6.6)

Obviously not a thing.

Le'Veon Bell

RB59 (5.6)

RB58 (5.7)

Only 24-of-79 snaps in Week 12.

Malcolm Brown

RB60 (5.5)

RB39 (8.9)

Wk 12 3rd down touches: MB (5), others (1).

Week 13 Fantasy Usage Model

1. Situational RB Touches (Sunday Night)

2. Targets Aren't Created Equal (Monday Night)

3. Air Yards Report (Monday Night)

4. Usage Model Notes (Tuesday)

My Twitter: @HaydenWinks