Explainer: Why the Nets might not trade Kyrie Irving
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Kyrie Irving requested a trade on Friday after he and the Nets couldn’t come to terms on an extension. He’s been linked to several teams since like the Lakers, Suns, Heat, and Mavericks, and if traded, he has limited options to extend his contract mid-season. He was listed out for Saturday’s game against Washington with calf soreness despite being listed as available the day before shortly after his trade request was announced. We now wait for a potential deal, with Adrian Wojnarowski saying that the Nets are proceeding in talks as though they’re determined to find a deal for Irving.
But what if there is no trade? If the threat of losing Irving in free agency for nothing is real then that should be enough reason for the Nets to consider trading him now. However, if their top priority remains to contend for a championship this season, then that possibility likely gets eliminated by trading Irving. With that in mind, there is a strong case for the Nets to keep Irving past the trade deadline and deal with his situation later.
Brooklyn can still make a playoff run with the current roster
(Photo by Al Bello/Getty Images).
It will be challenging for the Nets to find a trade that has Irving leaving while keeping them with relatively similar strength. None of the teams mentioned as interested suitors can realistically propose a framework that keeps the Nets in contention. Unless they are getting back an equally talented All-Star talent, keeping Irving is almost always the better option for a playoff run.
He needs to prove he's reliable
(Photo by Sarah Stier/Getty Images)
After two straight seasons filled with non-basketball unavailability and multiple controversies, Irving is a year-by-year player. He is playing right now to get properly paid next season. Holding out from playing if not traded could negate the progress he’s made rehabilitating his value since returning from his suspension.
Nets can pay him the most money
(Photo by Adam Hunger/Getty Images)
It’s no coincidence that the reported teams interested in him would need to trade for him in order to sign him to a market-value contract. The Nets will hold Irving’s Bird rights when he becomes a free agent this offseason so they will be able to offer him anything up to the maximum. They might as well take their chances on him in free agency to A: see if there are any cap space teams actually interested in him and B: outbid them for him. There is a good chance there is no market for him and he ultimately returns to Brooklyn.
This isn’t the first time Irving tried to leverage the Nets. He similarly tried to force the Nets’ hand to offer him a maximum contract ahead of 2022 free agency. There were no cap space teams interested in paying him what he was hoping for with his only path to get to his preferred team in free agency, the Lakers, was via the $6.5 million taxpayer mid-level exception. Irving ultimately picked up his $36.9 million player option and the Nets did not trade him.
Realistically, it's Lakers or bust
Brad Penner-USA TODAY Sports
The difference between now and last offseason is that the Lakers do present a legitimate threat to sign Irving in free agency. They could generate $30 million in cap space to sign him, but there is no guarantee they head into the offseason with cap space. They could still make trades now that keep them over the cap this summer, giving them existing salaries they could flip in future trades. This would also allow the Lakers to have a larger MLE and re-sign their top free agents. If they took the cap space route to sign Irving, the rest of the roster would mostly comprise minimum players, giving them inadequate depth that has burdened them these past two seasons.
With these factors in mind, it probably makes more sense for the Lakers to acquire Irving in a trade than with cap space. But if the trade deadline passes and the Lakers make separate trades that keep them over the cap for the 2023 offseason, then Irving might not have any legitimate options in free agency. At that point, not only would his best financial option be to return to the Nets, but also to take whatever guarantee stipulation-laden extension the Nets offered him.
He could still be traded this offseason if he signs a short extension
Dennis Schneidler-USA TODAY Sports
If both sides agree on an extension that is no longer than two additional years with raises no larger than 5 percent between seasons, Irving would remain trade eligible this offseason. This would give both sides more flexibility on a potential separation this offseason should the Nets finally decide to blow it up, which could stem from Kevin Durant himself asking out again.
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