Experts see parallels to 1987, 2011 in dry weather of 2021

Oct. 18—In a year marred by stretches of historically dry weather and less-than-average precipitation, the drought of 2021 is causing farmers and meteorologists alike to draw comparisons to previous major droughts in 2012 and 1988. Although farmers have yet to feel any significant effects from this year's dry spells, there is concern about what might come next.

In the late 1980s, Wisconsin's statewide rainfall deficit caused more than $900 million in drought-related crop losses. Rock County experienced deficits for eight months in 1988, with the year ending 5.17 inches below the county's average annual rainfall, according to historical data provided by the city of Janesville's Wastewater Utility Office.

Nick Baker, a former agriculture educator for UW Extension in Rock County, still discusses the 1988 drought with local farmers but said many don't think 2021 stacks up with the drought in the late 1980s.

"This summer reminded a lot of people of 1987," Baker said in reference to the season leading up to the drought the next year.

Although 1988 saw extreme temperatures, Ben Miller, the observation program leader at the National Weather Service office in Sullivan, said summer 1989 was actually drier and left a larger rain deficit, leading to the region's net precipitation levels spiraling in the years to follow. Miller provided The Gazette data for the droughts of 1988 and 2012 and gave commentary on the significance of each year.

1988's rain deficit was just a start

Further compounding the drought, May 1988 started a running rain deficit the region did not recover from until mid-1993. During that time, southeastern Wisconsin saw 61 consecutive months of insufficient rainfall, with total deficits periodically reaching more than 15 inches.

Despite normal precipitation during the warm seasons of 1990 to 1992, the annual deficits lingered. Finally, from July 1992 to June 1993, a rain surplus of nearly 20 inches brought Rock County out of the red.

2012 sees 'flash drought'

After nearly two decades of relatively normal rain patterns marked by offsetting record-setting totals in 2002 and 2008, spring 2011 set the stage for another period of devastatingly dry weather culminating in a catastrophic drought in 2012.

Miller used the term "flash drought" to describe the impact of 2012's weather, noting a spell of dry weather combined with soaring temperatures. From June 2011 into May 2013, Rock County saw spikes in deficits reaching nearly 13 inches, and temperatures rose to unseasonably levels from the outset. Data from that time shows May and June alone saw 14 days of 90-degree readings, followed by a warm fall and winter.

Doug Rebout, president of the Wisconsin Corn Growers Association and partner at the Rebout and Sons Farm, recalled the burned crops and barren hillsides in 2012 that characterized an unprecedented year of dryness.

"You'd look on the hills and there would be nothing there," he said.

Farmers in the area lost more than 50% of their crops that year. A state of emergency was declared, which at one point warranted water diversions from lakes and streams to facilitate irrigation.

Alarms not ringing—yet

Rebout said such images have largely been avoided this year thanks to advances in crop genetics and other practices that helped farmers better handle this year's dry spell. He expects the harvest yields will indicate a good year for crop production.

"The farmers are feeling a little bit more optimistic because they weren't seeing those burnt-up crops like in 2012," he said.

Even though 2021 hasn't inflicted catastrophic damage on crops in Rock County, the summer was the seventh driest on record in 127 years, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's drought monitor.

To date, the county is running an 8.3-inch rain deficit. Baker said recent rainfalls are being absorbed into the soil seemingly as fast as raindrops hit the ground.

"As I talk to farmers, they go, 'Yeah, we got 2 inches of rain the other day, and I don't have any puddles anywhere on my farm soaking it up.' It's because we're that dry," he said.

What is making 2021's drought more bearable has been the wetter-than-normal spring of 2020 and a four-year span prior to that of the wettest weather in the Janesville wastewater utility office's records. All that precipitation resulted in a rain surplus of 43.23 inches accumulating from 2016 to 2019.

But much of that cushion has evaporated in 2021, and Baker said the rest of 2021 and early 2022 need to be wet to avoid starting next year's planting season behind the eight ball.

"If we don't get adequate rain this fall and the next spring, we're going into the next year with a deficit. And that's when trouble can strike quickly," he said.

Whether this comes to fruition remains to be seen, though Rebout and Baker remain optimistic. As farmers, their job isn't to constantly worry about what precipitation might come but rather wait and see what nature doles out.

"It's so hard to predict the future because no one has that crystal ball, (but) it's always in the back of everyone's mind," Baker said. "Nobody is pulling the alarm yet, but they have their hand on it."