ESPN’s latest FPI Rankings leave much to be desired
Earlier this year I took some time looking at ESPN’s FPI rankings and had a lot of questions. Although the latest FPI rankings now at least have Georgia ahead of Clemson (unlike right after they straight-up beat them), I’ve still got questions.
Georgia is atop the rankings while Alabama, Ohio State, Oklahoma, Michigan, and Cincinnati come in 2-6. You can make some argument for an unbeaten Oklahoma over Ohio State, who lost at home to Oregon, but it’s hard to be overly upset about any of those teams.
So you’re aware, Notre Dame checks in 18th which is hilarious when you see some of the teams ranked ahead of them. I obviously think they should be higher than that but as you’ll quickly see, losing closely seems to reward teams more than winning narrowly does in this formula.
So which teams had me the most bumfuzzled (shoutout to Bobby Bowden for that one) this week?
Here are just a few observations:
No. 7 Pittsburgh
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Do losses still matter or no? Pitt has been a bright spot in the dreadful ACC but that isn’t exactly saying much. The Panthers have just one loss but of their five victories to date, none came over ranked opponents.
And that loss they suffered? It was to mighty Western Michigan at Heinz Field.
No. 8 Florida
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Florida may be 4-3 but at least they can hang their hat on one of those losses being close to Alabama. Seriously, what am I missing with Florida? They’re a game over .500 and just had a pulseless LSU team that is canning its head coach put up 49 points on them.
Florida may have one of the ten most talented rosters in college football but they’re certainly nowhere near being worthy of a top-10 ranking through seven weeks.
9. Iowa State
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Iowa State was full of preseason hype but an early loss to Iowa and recent loss at Baylor have them a long way from where they started in the polls. They’ve gone 4-2 to date but those four wins have come against teams that are a combined 7-17, including one-win Kansas and winless UNLV.
Seneca Wallace would even look at these ratings and laugh.
10. Clemson
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Clemson’s defense seems to be as good as just about everybody’s in the nation but their offense is one of the most difficult to watch of any Power Five team. While that defense would keep them in just about every game I have real trouble believing they’re one of the ten best in college football at this very moment.
11. Penn State
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If I keep complaining about teams being ranked too high then who needs to be ranked ahead of them?
Exhibit A is 5-1 Penn State whose loss at Iowa came largely because of an injury to one of their best players. Wins at Wisconsin and over Auburn are both strong, even if the Badgers offense has made them quite disappointing.
The Nittany Lions need to be higher.
12. Texas
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Q: How do you know your ratings system is flawed?
A: It has 4-3 Texas, a team that blew a home fourth quarter lead against Oklahoma State last week and a three-possession second half lead to Oklahoma two weeks ago, ranked 12th.
Oh, and that other Texas loss, a drubbing at the hands of Arkansas, only looks worse as the Razorbacks continue to fall back to earth after their hot start.
14. Michigan State
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As is the case with Penn State, Michigan State is unbeaten and deserves to be ranked higher than some of these teams ahead of them. I get that the Spartans are yet to play Michigan, Purdue, Ohio State, or Penn State, all of which are currently ranked and that they’ll have in their final five regular season games, 7-0 is still 7-0 and the last time I checked the point of playing a game was to win, not to lose closely (unless you’re Penn State).
20. Oregon
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Few teams nationally have dealt with the amount of injuries Oregon has but few teams have as big of win as Oregon does, either, as the Ducks upset Ohio State in the Horseshoe back in September.
Their loss against Stanford was a bad one but it was just one loss while also having a marquee win few can compare to. Oregon is another team that should be ranked significantly higher.
23. Nebraska
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Nebraska is just 3-5 on the season but somehow cracks the top 25 on ESPN’s FPI as the Cornhuskers come in at 23. Those three wins have come against Fordham, Buffalo, and Northwestern, all of which are at home.
They found a way to lose to an awful Illinois team and are 0-4 away from Lincoln after losing at Minnesota last week. But they played Michigan and Oklahoma both closely so that’s worth more than actually beating an average or bad opponent, right?
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