Enrollment down again in larger districts, up at smaller schools

Oct. 24—Enrollment has continued to decline slightly in two of the largest area school districts while enrollment has grown in at least one smaller area district and a private school.

After public school enrollment dips last fall were widely attributed to families choosing alternatives during the pandemic, the continued minor dips in Mankato and St. Peter this fall are being traced largely to smaller than expected kindergarten classes. For a second year it appears families are opting to hold back their prospective kindergarteners for a year.

The leaders of Loyola and St. Clair schools say growing enrollment is not necessarily because of the ongoing pandemic. They've been on upward trajectory for several years.

Most of public schools' funding is determined by student numbers. A change of even just a few students means a significant gain or loss of revenue.

But there is extra state financial support this year for districts that have lost students. For the Mankato district, the new dollars will nearly offset its loss.

Enrollment numbers

Enrollment declined for a second consecutive year in the Mankato and St. Peter school districts.

Mankato Area Public Schools has lost nearly 4% of its students over the last two years. The district has 8,375 students this fall, down 58 from last school year and down 310 from 2019-2020.

St. Peter Area Public Schools has experienced an 8% decline. There are now 2,014 students, down from 2,131 last fall and 2,195 in the fall of 2019.

Larger districts continue to be seeing the greatest enrollment declines, said Mankato Area Public Schools Director of Business Services Tom Sager.

"Very similar to last year, the larger the community and the larger the school district the more impact, " he said.

While both districts anticipated another year of slight enrollment decline, the dip was larger than projected. Mankato lost 27 more students than anticipated and St. Peter lost 85 more.

Mankato School Board member Kristi Schuck lauded district forecasters for coming so close to accurate. She called coming within 30 students "extraordinary" following "a very challenging 18 months."

Enrollment meanwhile has jumped by over 13% in St. Clair Public Schools in the last two school years. The district now has 774 students, up from 720 last year and 684 in 2019-2020.

In the Lake Crystal-Wellcome-Memorial District, enrollment is slightly higher than projected but still down a bit from the norm. The district has 943 pupils this fall — six more than expected. The district typically has around 950 students or more.

Kato Public Charter School enrollment has held steady at around 55 students through the pandemic.

Enrollment has continued to grow at Loyola Catholic School in Mankato, reaching a record 540 preschool through 12th graders this fall.

Kindergarten factor

In both Mankato and St. Peter, projections for a very large class of kindergarteners did not come to fruition this fall.

The number of incoming kindergarteners dropped significantly last fall, presumably because the pandemic led parents of children who recently turned 5 years old and had the choice between starting then or waiting a year chose the later.

It now appears the persistent pandemic has led another band of parents to make the same decision this fall, Sager told Mankato School Board members last week.

"We have another group of red-shirt kindergarteners that we were expecting to come in but didn't," he said.

Kindergarten enrollment did bounce back higher than last fall in Mankato, but it's still lower than 2019. In every other grade enrollment was slightly higher than projected but not quite by enough to overcome the gap in kindergarten.

Mask requirements

School officials said they believe masking requirements played only a nominal role in enrollment decisions this fall.

Mankato Area Public Schools require masks at the elementary and middle schools. Loyola Catholic School started the year with a K-8 requirement. St. Peter Public Schools started the year in a full mask mandate but later lifted the requirement at the high school. In other area schools, masks are recommended but not required.

"I think that we did have a few families who chose St. Clair because of the masking requirement (in other districts)," said St. Clair Supt. Tim Collins. "But at the same time we maybe lost a few families who wanted their children wearing masks."

Sager said he personally didn't hear of any family leaving because of the requirement, but he did hear of one or two who were drawn to the district because of masks. But not all families share their reasons for coming to or leaving the district, he noted.

Lake Crystal-Wellcome-Memorial School District Supt. Mark Westerburg said he heard from some parents they would have considered an online alternative if masks had been mandatory.

Kato Public Charter School ran advertisements in The Press Press promoting it did not have a mask requirement but saw no increase in enrollment.

Loyola Catholic School Principal Adam Bemmels said masks were also a topic of debate at his school, but there were no departures.

"As much as people have voiced opinions, those who were vocal have stuck with us," he said.

Other factors

In addition to private and charter school options, families can choose to go to a public school outside of their home district through the open enrollment process.

Mankato Area Public Schools leaders haven't yet analyzed how many families who live in the district chose open enrollment or other public and private and homeschooling alternatives this fall, Sager said. But he expects the numbers to be about the same as last fall, when a spike in people choosing alternatives dropped enrollment by over 250 students.

St. Clair's Collins also hasn't yet seen this year's open enrollment numbers. But it historically has been a significant contributor to his district's enrollment growth. Over half of St. Clair's students don't live within the district south of Mankato.

Collins said he believes the primary reason some families chose St. Clair has not changed.

"There are always going to be some families that prefer a quality smaller school system where their children can participate at all levels," he said.

At Loyola Catholic School, Bemmels said improving retention rates are a driver of growing enrollment in recent years at the preK-12 private school in Mankato. Fewer students are leaving to go other schools, especially at transition points such when moving from middle to high school.

"We've built some good momentum and we're continuing to do good work here," Bemmels said.

In recent years Loyola has grown by around 40 students each year. This year it grew by 50. The school added a third class in some grades this year and filled to capacity at two grade levels.

Loyola added seven new classrooms this fall by expanding into former office space connected to the school owned by the School Sisters of Notre Dame.

At Kato Public Charter School, Principal Mymique Baxter said the greatest barriers for growing enrollment continues to be overcoming a negative perception or lack of awareness about her school. The public school is open tuition-free to any sixth through 12th grade students.

Many people still don't know it exists or don't realize it's open to everyone, Baxter said. Others might know it was nearly closed in 2018 due to poor student attendance and test scores.

But the school since has gained new leadership and revamped its curriculum.

"We're not the same school," Baxter said.

Financial impact

Most of public school funding allocations are determined by enrollment numbers. Each student generates over $10,000 in revenue on average across the state, according to Minnesota Department of Education data.

In the Mankato Area School District, Sager said the 27 fewer students than projected equate to a loss of around $325,000.

But the district is receiving over $320,000 in new funding from the state.

The state historically has provided a small amount of money to districts that have lost students. This year the state also is using some of its federal COVID relief dollars to give extra one-time support — nearly $1,100 for each student lost last year.

The extra funds are determined based on enrollment loss from last school year and the dollars will come to districts this school year. Several other area districts also are receiving funding, including St. Peter ($89,000), Waseca ($112,000), Lake Crystal-Wellcome-Memorial ($62,000) and Le Sueur-Henderson ($61,000).

Additional students have had a net positive financial impact in St. Clair, Collins said. There were some additional expense for computers and other equipment for those students. But the district did not need to hire any additional staff — it's greatest expense — to accommodate the additional students this year because they are spread across multiple grade levels.

Future forecast

Area school officials said they expect enrollment to rebound or continue to grow in upcoming years.

One projection for Mankato Area Public Schools shows enrollment dropping below 7,800 in five years. But Sager says that model doesn't account for any of the new housing development coming to the Mankato area.

"We still anticipate our school district growing over the next five to 10 years," he said.

Collins expects some of those new residents in the Mankato district will opt to attend his smaller St. Clair district.

Westerburg said he hopes for a rebound at Lake Crystal-Wellcome-Memorial as the pandemic ends and families who chose online learning feel it's safe to return.

Baxter and staff and supporters will be working to raise awareness of the revamped Kato Public Charter School, which can welcome up to 220 students once the pandemic is over.

Loyola isn't planning any more expansions, but Bemmels said there is still room to grow by reaching capacity within their current footprint.